– $50 back on $250+ at Grand Hyatt through April 15 – $250 back on $1,000+ at Marriott Homes & Villas through April 13 – $150 back on $750+ at Hiltons in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Latin America through March 31 – $30 back on $150+ at Turo
There are games everywhere with these, starting with being able to use a single offer multiple times by thinking differently about saving offers. (Thanks to Tom)
In case you’re not seeing the heightened referral, there are also two modified, unintentional links for the same offer with no-lifetime language (NLL). There’s (probably minimal) risk in using modified links that American Express didn’t build, so do your own risk / value judgement. The first link is here, and the second is here. (Thanks to DDG)
More helpful notes for people that think differently.
There are questions that need a different answer though, so let me present today’s phrase: “My boss makes me”
Examples:
Q: Why do you want to split this large gas transaction into two weird payment amounts? A: My boss makes me
Q: Why do you need 18 different email addresses? A: My boss makes me
Q: Why do you want to expedite this request? A: My boss makes me
Q: why are you using four different loyalty accounts? A: My boss makes me
Q: Why do you want to apply the upgrade after booking instead of at booking? A: My boss makes me
Q: Why are you flying from IAH-LAX via JAX and IAD? A: My boss makes me
Q: Why don’t you just drop that box in our self-service drop over there? A: (While carrying a box full of $28,000 in gold) My boss makes me hand it to a person
Q: Why do you waste time reading MEAB? A: My boss makes me
Have a nice Tuesday!
Why are you wearing denim on denim? My boss made me.
– +7x on gas, grocery, and dining (IHG) – +5x on gas, grocery, and dining (Hyatt, Aeroplan, United, Southwest, and Marriott co-brands) – +2%-5% bonus cash back for physical card transactions (Instacart) – +5% back on gas, grocery, and dining (Amazon)
The caps on these are historically $1,500 in spend, but this round it’s been reduced to $1,000. If you get an error while checking, open an incognito browser tab.
Do this now: Check for your targeted United Mile Play bonus offer. I wasn’t targeted this round, but there are offers as high as 40,000-50,000 miles for things like taking three trips of $500+ or flying in a premium seat four times.
EDITOR’S NOTE:Some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts during the holiday break in 2024 and now on Saturdays in early 2025. Special thanks to today’s author, Graham from TC Tailwind, for his enumeration of failures in the hobby. Have a nice weekend!
Introduction
We are, almost as a rule, optimizers in this hobby. Optimizing is supposed to pay off (for some definition of “pay off”), but it doesn’t always. I’ve failed in a lot of interesting ways when optimizing, and I console myself in those failures by telling myself I’ve learned something from them. For your benefit –or at least entertainment– I’ll enumerate some of my failures, and the tactics that I’ve developed to avoid repeating them.
My Failures
Taking on more complexity than I could understand
As a Canadian student earning internship money in the US, I had a brilliant idea to stash that money in a TFSA (the Canadian equivalent of a Roth IRA). I was planning to (and did) return to the US to work full time, and I knew the US didn’t respect the tax free nature of TFSAs. But I was also smart, and knew that the US doesn’t charge you tax on your investments if you don’t sell them, so I figured I could safely stash the money there tax free until I returned to Canada eventually.
It turns out I wasn’t smart enough. I did not know that the US has a special designation for money you invest in passive investments outside the country, and that it applied to Canadian ETFs. Nor did I know that they had an extra special tax treatment for them. I also didn’t know they had a handy little 4 page form that you have to fill out per ETF you own, and which no tax software I know of supports. In the end, this little stunt saved me nothing, and cost two rounds for foreign exchange fees on the money, and burned through countless hours of my time across multiple years of tax filings.
My tactic to avoid repeating this failure is:
If you have a clever idea, validate it with some experts first: I could have saved a ton of pain if I’d talked to an accountant. The churning world doesn’t have certified professionals you can go to, and it isn’t exactly known for its openness, but I’ve always found folks in the chat groups I’m in to be willing to call bullshit on a bad plan. Turns out people like correcting you when you’re wrong on the internet, who knew?
Consider the opportunity cost of your plan: Any time you undertake an optimization, think whether it precludes you from doing something else (especially if that’s something else you’d normally be doing, like I would have been in this case). Calculate the value of the alternative, and make sure it’s less than the value of your plan.
Being too early
I’ve always been the type of person to try and get things done early, and boy have I found a million ways in which that can burn you. Closing a credit card with lounge access? Of course I end up with a last minute flight and no other lounge options in that airport. Burning my Dell credits on something frivolous on Jan 1? Of course I end up needing a new router that I could have gotten for free with those credits. In each case, my desire to get things done early meant I gave up optionality that I could have used later.
My tactic to avoid repeating this failure is:
Wait until the last minute, if there’s no benefit to being early and little risk of losing the opportunity: Credit cards have well known annual fee refund rules. If a bank will refund your money 30 days after the fee posts, there’s no benefit to cancelling it the day the fee posts. Set a reminder for a few days before tha last possible day instead. Similarly, if you have an annual benefit you’re clearly entitled to, there’s no reason to blow it early on something you don’t want at the beginning of the year, when you might want it for something else later in the year.
There are some huge caveats here. If something is too good to be true and might get nerfed, or it is less than above-board that might get patched, you should absolutely continue to get on that ASAP.
I love Doctor of Credit, and I was hooked on getting their deal alerts after I got a free phone out of one. But one day, I caught myself responding to one of those alerts by spending 10 minutes punching my personal information into a random website to get a free cookie dough bar. In retrospect, I view saving a dollar or two on a thing I didn’t even want as a failure (and it’s indicative of dozens of other micro-optimizations I’ve done, like the time I’ve wasted going through 1% back shopping portals on ~$20 purchases).
My tactics to avoid repeating this failure are:
Set a minimum dollar value on your time: I have a hard $200 / hour rule for my time now. Obviously I don’t spend every hour focused on making / saving money, but if I’m doing something to make / save money, it better meet that bar.
Remember free can still be too expensive: Just because something is free, doesn’t mean it’s worth taking. There are extra costs in terms of time, the environment, your health, etc., even on free items. If you don’t actually want it, don’t waste your time on it.
Not valuing my comfort
I recently flew home from Tanzania, and booked the cheapest business class ticket that I could using points. The problem? It involved an awkward 6 hour overnight stay at Cairo airport (a completely wonderful airport with no faults at all). Even finding a soft place to hole up in a lounge, I barely slept and I was a miserable traveller for the rest of my trip. In retrospect, not paying the extra ~50k points for a better flight was a failure to value my comfort appropriately.
My tactic to avoid repeating this failure is:
Set hard rules for your comfort: I can’t put a dollar value on comfort as easily as I can on time, so instead I make strict rules for myself. I already had a hard line that I don’t do red eyes in economy. Now I have a new rule that I don’t do overnights in an airport. These hard and fast rules help me feel mentally compelled to take the options that I know are better for me, even if they’re more expensive.
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In the before times, I loved getting multiple Alaska cards each time a heightened offer came out. Now that (a) BofA’s payment options aren’t what they used to be, and (b) the Alaska and Hawaiian merger completed so you can transfer Membership Rewards → Hawaiian → Alaska, this card is mid at best; especially when Membership Rewards card bonuses approach a half-million points with a little 15x fun.
If you time everything perfectly, that means that you only need funds in the present for 31 days, which is an effective APR of 43%. Last I checked, 43% was slightly better than, let’s say Chase, was paying on checking accounts too. Having this account will help with US Bank business credit card approvals, like the $750 Business Leverage or $750 Triple Cash rewards cards. (Thanks to DDG)
The American Express Delta SkyMiles personal cards have increased sign-up bonus for direct links and referrals, but the increased bonuses require the American Express random number generator to work in your favor. The offers:
– Gold: 80,000 miles after $2,000 spend in six months, annual fee waived first year – Platinum: 90,000 miles after $3,000 spend in six months – Reserve: 100,000 miles after $5,000 spend in six months
If you don’t see the heightened offer, try switching browsers, using incognito mode, or poking an Ed Bastion voodoo doll.
Have a nice weekend, and watch for a guest post tomorrow!
Q: Why does the Ed Bastion voodoo doll have a cape? A: AmEx works better that way.
– $200 back on $1,000+ at Norwegian Cruise Lines through April 23 – $70 back on $250+ at Hertz through March 10 – $75 back on $250+ at Avis through March 31 – $30 back on $75+ at Pepper through March 31 – 5,000 bonus points on $2,000+ on the Marriott Business card through April 30
The Pepper one is a $30 hedge against any potential failure, should they fail in the next couple of weeks.
With some trickery you can often get different types of hundos too.
Economy: 25,000 miles each way, up from 20,000 miles
Premium economy: 40,000 miles each way, up from 35,000 miles
Business: 60,000 miles each way, up from 50,000 miles
La Premiere: 165,000 miles each way, up from 150,000 miles
Partner award prices went up somewhat too. The change was intentional, and in theory will also bring increased award availability on first party metal.
Devaluations Will Happen
Unfortunately, devaluations will continue over time in all programs because:
Inflation in consumer prices means more points earned for buying the same things with a credit card
Inflation in hotel and airfare prices means more points are awarded for revenue bookings
For airlines, CASM inflates over time, and providing an award seat costs more over time
For hotels, CPOR inflates over time, so providing free nights costs more over time
Decreasing the value of issued points lowers liabilities on a company’s balance sheet
The only way devaluations won’t happen is with regulation, but (a) that’s unlikely to come, and (b) would just cause a different type of devaluation, such as no award space released.
Protecting Yourself
To effectively shield yourself from devaluations to the extent that such a thing is possible:
Book awards as early as possible: Points on average are worth more now than they will be in the future, so lock in current pricing when you can
Book speculative awards with spare points: As long as a program offers free cancelations, you can lock in current pricing and cancel if the trip won’t work out (or if a lower price comes along)
Don’t save more points than you can reasonably burn in the next n months: Saving points that will decrease in value probably isn’t fiscally sound, just like eating a tub of lard probably isn’t nutritionally sound. Ok, but what value should you use for n? It’s hard to say, but I think the half-life of devaluations is around 24 months with some medium variance
(A corollary to the prior item) Cash out excess points, especially those you can’t burn in the next n months: Cashed out points turn into cash, which: earns interest, can be invested, and can be used to buy more miles if you cashed out too many. It turns out, money is fungible
Good luck out there!
Next time on Tuesday Wisdom: Elmo’s airplane explains RASM.