Since March-ish (Smarch), both American Express and Chase have been shutting down some of the biggest gamers in the sport. They’re looking different than past shutdowns, so let’s document some new behaviors starting today with Chase.

Shutdown: What of the Ultimate Rewards?

In recent years when you’ve been shutdown by Chase, they’ve given you 30 days (or 90 in New York) to cash out your points. That’s all changed though; we’ve seen two new recent behaviors with points, neither of which matches what used to happen:

  • Some accounts have points forfeited immediately (and a few of those will have a line-item that says “courtesy adjustment” to add insult to injury)
  • Some accounts have points cashed out at 1.0 cents immediately

The old 30 day point rule isn’t around like it used to be, at least for the big guns. There’s also varying behavior on what happens with pending points that post after you’ve been shutdown. Again, you’ve got two possibilities, and what happened with your stash of points seems to have no bearing on what happens with your pending points. Your pending points will either:

  • Be transferrable when they post
  • Forfeited

If you’re shutdown, a random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your posted points, and a different random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your pending points. What’s the random number generator? I think a team of humans is handling these cases, and they’re not completely consistent with one another.

The Deposit Accounts

Avoiding Chase deposit accounts is manufactured spend 101, but not everyone follows that advice. For recent shutdowns of cardholders with deposit accounts we’ve seen a bit of random behavior there too:

  • Some shutdown cardholders have their deposit accounts stick around
  • Some shutdown cardholders have all of their deposit accounts closed
  • Some shutdown cardholders see some of their deposit accounts closed

I think the varied behavior here is a further indication that we’re dealing with a team of humans that isn’t completely consistent.

The Causes

The cause for most of the shutdowns is probably pretty obvious if you spend a few minutes thinking about how one might scale, then spend a few minutes thinking about how you might scale your scale, but let’s just say it boils down to one or both of:

  • Earning lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase
  • Redeeming lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase

If that’s not enough and you like bad translations, there’s public info on some of these recent Chase shutdowns at UCSF.

Avoiding The Shutdowns

If you’re a heavy-hitting whale that’s not yet shutdown at Chase, you probably know that what you’re doing is moving toward a brick wall, and you’re probably doing your best to earn as much as you can before the wall wants its dues. A common sentiment amongst most affected by the shutdowns seems to be “it was worth it”.

If you’re not a heavy-hitting whale, this probably isn’t something you need to be super concerned about.

The Permanence

If you were shutdown, what does getting back in look like? Well, you might be surprised to learn that it seems random:

  • Some people get back (seemingly-permanently) after waiting a month or two
  • Some people get back after waiting, only to have the cards cancelled shortly after activation
  • Some people are instantly denied or have approvals rescinded before cards can be activated

Again, the same process governing the other aspects of recent shutdowns is probably governing these too.

Mini-Analysis

I’ve avoided mentioning something because I largely don’t agree with it, but, let’s mention it anyway: there’s rampant speculation that the rise of AI has given Chase an easy way to find the gamers. The only evidence I can see for this is the inconsistency because AI is currently great at that, but I genuinely think that’s just humans doing human things.

I think what’s new and why we’re seeing new waves and behaviors is that we recently got:

  • Uncapped 8x earning
  • Lots of 2 cents per point redemptions

Taken together at volume, those things probably caused a big enough blip on someone’s radar to have a team look into what was going on. But what do I know?

Have a nice weekend friends!

Chase’s equipment shows why it was hard to see the blip before we arrived at “8x*2cpp = bad”.

  1. The Citi Custom Cash Mastercard is being discontinued. It’s a great card for 5x at $500 spend a month, but a nearly useless card for the modern heavy hitter. Still, you’ve got (reportedly) until the end of the week to product change if you want more of these in your life. (Thanks to David)
  2. Bilt Rewards has a transfer bonus between 5% and 125% to TAP Air Portugal on June 1 (Monday). A few things to consider:

    – You’ve still got time to earn before Monday
    – TAP Miles&Go doesn’t give you additional saver availability on TAP metal, and their award chart isn’t great, especially in business, though there are a few award prices that beat US carrier pricing (Thanks to Gary at VFTW for corrections here)

    If you like gambling though, there’s a non-zero chance that these will turn into Miles&More miles at some point. But there was also a non-zero chance that JetBlue and Spirit’s merger would go through, so make sure you’ve got downside protection.
  3. Wells Fargo Offers has new offers for:

    – 10% cash back at Hiltons in the US, up to $650 spend
    – 7% cash back at Hyatt House and Hyatt Studios, up to $400 spend
    – 7% cash back at Hyatt Places, up to $400 spend
    – 10% cash back at Marriott properties, up to $800 spend

    Each of these expires on June 30, and as usual the simplest gamer move is gift cards at the front desk.
  4. Kroger stores have a 4x fuel points promotion through June 9 on gaming and digital content cards. A couple of surprises on this one:

    – Online sports books gift cards are coding at 2x
    – Apple is coding at 4x

    It’s probably a bit early to stock up on Apple gift cards for the iPhone 18 but there’s still utility here.
  5. Chase updated its Ink Business referral program. They’ve upped the per-referral award to 40,000 Ultimate Rewards the total rewards earned at 200,000 Ultimate Rewards annually.

Happy Thursday!

Selected other works from the software engineer that designed Kroger’s coding.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hilton’s Q2 promotion for 2,000 bonus points on 3+ night stays, or 4,000 bonus points on 4+ night stays.
  2. TheGiftCardShop.com has a promotion for fee-free Visas and Mastercards of at least $50+ using promo code GRADS26, today only. This works on both physical and virtual gift cards.

    These are Incomm / Sutton gift cards.
  3. Meijer has a promotion for 10,000 points on $100+ in Visa gift cards through Tuesday, limit 10,000 points per mPerks account.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards. (Thanks to Nathan)
  4. Breeze Airways has a promotion for 45% off of base fares for round-trip travel with promo code BIRTHDAY booked by Friday with travel between August 11 and January 30, 2027. There are a few blackout dates for holiday travel.

    For those keeping track at home, it took until the end of May before we had a promotion for travel in 2027. It’s closer than in may appear. Also for those keeping track at home, we’re taking a pass on this week’s edition of Breeze Route Bingo™ while we find more obscure cities before Breeze does. Stay tuned!

Happy Wednesday!

Predicting Breeze’s next city by sorting populations in ascending order.

  1. Do this now: Check Hyatt for new Q2 targeted promotions for:

    – 3x points on two night or longer stays
    – 2,000-10,000 bonus points per night up to five nights
    – A rock

    I got the last one.
  2. American Express Offers has a new targeted offer for Hilton card holders for +4.5x on any spend totaling at least $2,000 through August 21, limit 27,000 additional bonus points.
  3. The Wells Fargo Choice Privileges Mastercard has a 60,000 point sign-up bonus after $1,000 spend in three months. The card carries no annual fee and 3x at gas, grocery, home improvement, and phone services.

    This Choice program usually leads to a lot of questions, so let me address the common ones: yes, no, no, the Ascend Collection and/or Scandinavia. What are the common questions? That’s an exercise left for the reader.
  4. Staples stores have fee-free $200 Mastercard gift cards in-store through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards, and anecdotally the death of the floosies has pushed competition for these up. Also, yes these can still be liquidated in lots of ways, always be probing.
  5. FrostieWaffles reminds us that today, or maybe tomorrow, is the last day to apply for Bank of America credit cards with Preferred Rewards boosts at lower tiers than the tiers required after. Yes it’s complex, and if you don’t know what I’m talking about, it’s too late to worry about it.

Happy fake Monday friends!

From /r/moldyinteresting: Frosty waffles aren’t always from frosting.

Memorial Day, like Labor Day, Mother’s Day, Christmas, National Bubble Bath Day, and a few other favorites, typically presents a great opportunity for one-off manufactured spend and travel hacking deals. We’ll see opportunities like:

  • Gift cards for sale under spot resale prices
  • Travel packages priced at relative minima
  • Extra inventory for award redemptions
  • Old apple products for really cheap

Broadly speaking, if you play the game today, you’ve got two choices:

  • Stick with what you know and can earn on any other day
  • Follow slickdeals, deal blogs, chatrooms, reselling slacks, and everything else to find great quick hits like those mentioned above

Either works obviously, but when you’ve built a war chest of manufactured spend volume, you’re probably going to earn more by sticking with what you know then you’ll earn or save by staying in front of a computer looking for today’s deals all day. So, unless you’re in this for the chase and the thrill of the new deal, consider spending your time today either doing what you normally do or learning more about how to build your war chest.

Or, we can summarize this post simply as:

Try and get the expected value of what you know bigger than the expected value of today’s quick hits.

Happy Monday friends!

Not all $15 apples are a good deal, even today.

  1. The Imprint Shell Mastercard card launched with a $50 after $500 spend sign-up bonus, which whatever, but its earning structure and other soft aspects are pretty great:

    – 3% cash back on restaurants and groceries, uncapped
    – 2% cash back everywhere else

    And on the plus side, if you get shutdown by Imprint the only real consequence is that you’re shutdown by Imprint.
  2. The Chase United Business card has an offer for:

    – 100,000 MileagePlus miles after $5,000 spend in three months
    – 10,000 MileagePlus miles for adding an employee card in three months
    – 5,000 MileagePlus miles for entering a United Agent’s promo code
    – 2,000 Premier Qualifying Points (PQP)

    That’s 115,000 total miles, double check offers before you apply. To get an agent code, either call United or chat on their website and ask the agent for one. If you chat, you may get the code directly or may get a URL that has it at the end.
  3. Meijer stores have 10,000 bonus points on $50 in third party gift cards excluding Amazon, Apple, and betting cards. The promotion is tomorrow and Sunday only, and limited to one per mperks account. (Thanks to Nathan)
  4. Stop & Shop, Giant, and Martins  have 10x points on Zift Zillions cards through Thursday. Some of these cards are convertible to high value brands like Amazon and Home Depot. The current variant is limited to $500 per loyalty account.

    Wanna know what a Zillion is? A big number. A Zift? No idea.
  5. Giant Food has 2x points on Mastercard gift cards through Thursday, limit $1,500 per loyalty account.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
  6. Rakuten In Store’s card linked program has 5% back on CVS purchases, seemingly unlimited.

Have a nice holiday weekend friends!

More explainable than Zift.

You know how there are filler articles around the churning-blog-o-sphere on slow news days? All I can say about yesterday, is: wow next level guys. Anyway, there are a couple of notes:

  1. New American Express Hilton no-lifetime language links surfaced for the personal cards:

    – Aspire: 175,000 points after $6,000 spend in six months
    – Surpass: 130,000 points after $3,000 spend in six months, $0 first year fee
    – Honors: 100,000 points + $100 statement credit after $2,000 spend in six months

    There’s no business no-lifetime language version unfortunately. If you don’t care about lifetime language though, the business also has a heightened offer of 130,000 points and a waived annual fee for the first year here. (Thanks to DDG)
  2. Emirates devalued award redemptions, the summary:

    – First: 14.7%-15.2% increase in my searches
    – Business: 14.9% increase in my searches
    – Economy: No change in my searches
    – Upgrades: 10%-15% increase in my searches

    There’s a small positive change too: one-way saver business fares are now bookable, a round-trip is no longer required.

Happy Thursday, and if you want a bonus for today, check here or here.

A solid metaphor for yesterday’s content in the churnosphere.

Today’s drinking game: Take a sip every time someone mentions the Hyatt devaluation. Actually, don’t do that, I don’t want you to die. Here’s the non-Hyatt update:

  1. Citi ThankYou points has two new transfer bonuses:

    – 25% to Wyndham through June 13
    – 30% to I Prefer through June 13

    There’s decent value in both especially outside of the US.
  2. The Fidelity Visa card has an increased sign-up bonus of $150 after $1,000 spend in 90 days. The card is a workhouse for its 2% everywhere rewards, its no-annual fee, and because it’s issued by Elan. The downside is that one shutdown at an Elan issuer is a shutdown at all Elan issuers, including US Bank.
  3. The TD Business Solutions Visa card has an increased sign-up bonus of $400 after $3,000 spend in 90 days. This one also earns 2% everywhere and has no-annual fee, but isn’t issued by Elan. It also does report to personal credit. (Thanks to FM)
  4. The US Bank issued Korean SkyPass Visas have historically high offers:

    – Select Visa Signature: 60,000 miles after $5,000 spend in 90 days
    – Visa Signature: 40,000 miles after $4,000 spend in 90 days
    – SkyBlue Visa: 10,000 miles after 1,000 spend in 90 days

    The bonus multipliers aren’t amazing, but 2x on airlines, hotels, car rental, and dining is … there. The award chart also isn’t amazing, and also is … there; think 62,500-92,500 miles for business redemptions and 80,000-120,000 for first, both one way. Finally, let’s talk about their business class product for US flights: it’s … there. (Thanks to David)

Happy Wednesday!

Speaking of things that are … there, Lubbock TX.