1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s Q4 promotion for 3,000 bonus points for every three nights through December 15, limit 36,000 bonus points.

    In case you’re curious about dumb things, there are 25 three night blocks between now and December 15, which is 13 more than are eligible for the bonus.
  2. U.S. Bank sunsetted its Leverage card, and added two new cards to its business portfolio:

    – Business Essentials: New card with $500 bonus after $5,000 spend in 150 days, 2% base earn
    – Business Essentials Plus: New card with $1,000 bonus after $15,000 spend in 150 days, 2% base earn, 5% back in your monthly top category up to $200,000 spend

    The Essentials card can earn 2.5% with $10,000 on deposit for up to $10,000 spend monthly. The Essentials Plus card can earn up to 3.5% cash back on all purchases up to $200,000 annually with up to $150,000 in assets on deposit.
  3. U.S. Bank has a $300 business banking bonus with promo code Q4SAV26 for new accounts through January 13, 2027:

    – Deposit $15,000 within 30 days
    – Maintain that balance through day 60

    The APY is effectively 0.05% which is effectively zero, so the main utility is to combine a Business Essentials (Plus) card with this bonus.
  4. Alaska has 20% off of economy fares booked by December 7 and flown between January 6 and March 10, 2027 with promo code D2CARD20, limit one per Atmos account.
  5. A few more Alaska quick hits:

    – They’re launching a debit card in early 2027 issued by Cross River Bank
    – Starting tomorrow, you choose how you earn miles and status based on one of distance, price, or segments for 2027
    – Starting tomorrow, you can opt in to an Atmos community that lets you earn bonus status points, miles, and weird other things
    – They’re adding transfer partners in 2027 including Bank of America
    – They’ll be retooling the business credit card in Q4

    I guess in Seattle, everything’s coming up Milhouse.

Happy Wednesday!

More dumb things.

  1. Do this now (If you have an AmEx Hilton): Register for 10,000 bonus points with a stay of at least three nights through January 3, 2027 booked by November 9. (Thanks to Ok-Anywhere6998)
  2. Bank of America has a new account business checking bonus of between $400 and $2,500 depending on how much you deposit in the first 30 days and maintain through day 90.

    The effectively 0% APR on the money makes this deal barely interesting, except that you fast track to Preferred Rewards Platinum Honors during account creation to make the Business cash rewards cards pay an extra 75% in rewards.
  3. American Express Offers has two new airline card-linked offers:

    – $50 off of $200 with Frontier through December 31
    – $60 off of $400 with JetBlue through December 14

    There’s a very specific breed that can go nuts with the Frontier GoWild Pass, currently priced at $249. I’m not that very specific breed but game recognizes game.
  4. Office Depot/OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300+ in Mastercard gift cards through Saturday. Buy in even multiples of $300 for the best discount.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
  5. The United MileagePlus Shopping portal has 500 bonus miles with $150+ in spend through October 5.

Happy Tuesday!

Did you know? Frontier GoWild pass holders get snacks pre-installed at their seats.

  1. Do this now: Register for Wyndham’s 4x points promotion for stays through January 19, limit 15,000 points. If you hold a basic Wyndham credit or debit card, there’s another 5,000 points after two nights stayed, and 10,000 for Premier cardholders.
  2. The Synchrony Venmo Visa card made changes for new cardholders, and I expect that existing cardholders are now on the business end of a ticking time-bomb too:

    – No more 3% earn in your top category (grocery was the regular)
    – 4% on dining and entertainment when you split the bill with venmo

    Synchrony doesn’t like cycling and the credit lines are just ok.
  3. Bilt’s promotion for Thursday will be:

    – 25%-125% to Amtrak based on status and Bilt Cash
    – 75%-200% to Hilton based on status and Bilt Cash
    – A 90 day Hilton status challenge when transferring to Hilton, based on status

    Both are typically a 1:1 transfer ratio and are limited to 100,000 base points, and only Amtrak makes sense generally speaking. You’ve still got time to earn for Thursday.
  4. ShopRite and Fairway stores each have $20 off of your next transaction when you buy $150+ in Visa or Mastercard gift cards.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards. (Thanks to GCA)

Happy Monday!

Hilton points if they were a chicken patty.

Introduction

We have a series on risk that won’t write itself, so I guess that’s what I’m here for. Smart readers can guess today’s entrant (because it’s in the title): Shutdown risk. What’s that? Well, (a) duh, and (b) the risk that a bank, FinTech, credit card issuer, or other counterparty throws its virtual hands up in the air and says “that’s a nah from me son.”

Shutdowns as a Spectrum

Shutdowns come in many forms, much like your crazy ex’s promises. A few examples:

  • The Gentle Backoff: When you say jail to a churner, the first thing they’ll think of isn’t metal bars and locks, but rather AmEx Pop-Up Jail, which prevents you from getting future sign-up bonuses.
  • The Not-so-gentle Backoff: Small to medium sized credit unions are great at this, generally something like “if you don’t stop refunding those travel redemptions the week after you book them, we’re going to close your account”.
  • The Cold, Calculated Axe: Banks famously don’t care about feelings, and the good ones have a risk algorithm or two that, when alarms, leads to immediate shutdown. The really good ones will send you a polite letter telling you to pound sand and kick rocks while you’re at it too.
  • The Random Wildcards: Gift card sites, obscure portal aggregators, and fly-by-night buying groups don’t have compliance departments, instead they have automated ban-hammers. Breathe on them sideways when the wrong Toby analyst is looking and your account is locked instantly, often taking your pending payouts, rewards, and maybe your money with it.

Some shutdowns obviously sting more than others.

Managing Shutdown Risk

I know, I know, no one likes to be managed. So do the managing yourself:

  • Earn and Burn: Points sitting in an account aren’t assets, they’re unbacked IOUs
  • Learn about an Institution’s Triggers: Some issuers that rhyme with schminkrony hate cycling for example, while other FinTechs hate when you taek them as nothing but a hub, while others hate it when you chase their deposit accounts; know the pitfalls so you can dodge ’em
  • Isolate Your Real Accounts: Is your mortgage payment coming out of the same account that you’re depositing buyer’s group checks into? Well, cut it out. Would P2 be eternally mad if you lost your Kohl’s card? Maybe be careful with Capital One
  • Consider horizontal scaling: A dozen accounts for your friends and family each spending $50,000 a month is a lot less likely to ring alarms at a FinTech compared to spending $600,000 a month in a single account

As a corollary, perhaps develop a thick skin.

Coping

Remember: If you haven’t been shutdown by an institution, you haven’t gone hard enough yet.

Happy Thursday friends!

Next time: Managing digestive risk.

  1. Hilton’s Q4 promotion is 3,000 Honors points for each stay at “luxury, lifestyle, resort, or all-inclusive hotels”, registration required for stays between October 15 and December 31.

    Does this mean that the Hampton hotel next to a rest-stop and a Dennys that charges “resort fees” will earn 3,000 points? I’m sure it won’t, but I think you’ve got a strong argument.
  2. Bilt added Amtrak as a 2,000:1,000 transfer partner. With Amtrak points worth roughly 2.6 cents, that means you’re cashing out Bilt at 1.3 cent each if you transfer. You can probably do better with most other Bilt partners without trying too hard.
  3. Wells Fargo has a new personal $400 checking bonus that requires UPDATE: Reader Craig sent in a better, $500 checking bonus:

    – Opening with $25
    – $1,000 in direct deposits within 90 days

    These are churnable every 12 months.
  4. Breeze has a 35% discount on base fares for flights booked today using promo code GETTHERE, and travel through February 10, 2027. Thanksgiving travel isn’t currently excluded, so if you need to go to *checks notes* Provo, UT for the holiday, there might be something here.

Happy Thursday!

Meanwhile, at Thanksgiving in Provo, UT.

Introduction

Conventional wisdom is often good at the macro level, and frankly terrible at the micro level. Need an example before we dive in? Let’s start with a doozy: “If a deal seems too good to be true, it probably is.” Street smart, for sure. But also, someone following that advice would have missed out on six to seven figures in Pepper gift card resale profit, $1,000 for running a $1 charge, buying unlimited AA miles for less than a half cent each, or hundreds of other churning greatest hits.

Today’s Contestant

Let’s go over another of my favorites: “buying miles doesn’t make sense except to top off an account”. There are definitely examples where that’s true, but especially on the high end of hotels and flights, that’s often wrong. I guess we’ll illustrate with a concrete example because reasons:

Let’s say you want to unlock one of the 2010-2019 achievements in churning: Five nights in a Sunrise Water villa at the Conrad Maldives, on let’s say July 1 – July 6, 2027. As of this writing, that’ll cost either:

  • $5,609.29 with the Honors discount
  • 640,000 points (160,000 nightly*4, the fifth night is free with Hilton)

That looks like a ton of points! But, Hilton will often sell you points at 0.5 cents each above board, so the $3,200 you’d pay out of pocket for those points is more than $2,400 savings over the cash price, and with better cancelation terms. Neat eh? You don’t need to buy points to top off an award redemption, you can buy points as a proxy award redemption.

It gets better though, if you’re buying points from a (churning) friend, rates are quite a bit better than the rates programs will sell them to you at, and you may get that same 640,000 Hilton points for $2,600 or less. Of course, there’s some sketch involved.

Tripping You Up

It’s not all roses though, sometimes there are road-blocks and speed-bumps. For example:

  • Some programs limit how many points you can buy
  • Gray market transactions are gray, unless you’re in the UK where they’re grey
  • Points aren’t always on sale
  • Award redemptions don’t earn points like cash bookings, so you’re forgoing a modest point-earning rebate

Good luck friends!

Next time: Debunking conventional “buy more and save wisdom”.

  1. Brex has a new $1,000 sign-up bonus after $4,000 spend in 30 days with new accounts opened in September. A few Brex-isms:

    – Brex doesn’t like sole proprietorships
    – Brex likes tech companies, especially venture-funded companies
    – Brex has interesting transfer partners and spend multiples, but transfer ratios aren’t 1:1

    Blending is best.
  2. Citi changed its bonus language on its Strata family of cards, limiting the bonus to once per lifetime per card. What does this look like in practice? We don’t know yet, but since it’s Citi, the T&Cs are probably implemented to 80% coverage.
  3. Safeway, Vons, Albertsons, and other Just4U stores have 10x points on $50+ in Instacart gift cards through Saturday, coupon clip required.

    Since we’ve now apparently entered the pumpkin-spice era formerly known as autumn, there’s a possibility that 10x+4x=12x on Saturday.
  4. Publix stores have a coupon for $10 off of $100+ Visa gift cards through October 7.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
  5. Niche news of the day: Product changes from Chase Freedom to Chase Freedom Flex cards are back, probably now because the Freedom Flex was retooled by removing cell phone insurance, removing foreign-transaction fees, and adding Points Boost along with other minor changes.

Have a nice Tuesday, friends!

Safeway stores also brought back another favorite this week.

  1. Do this now: Register for IHG’s Q4 promotion for 3x points starting with your second stay through the end of December.
  2. Citi ThankYou added Japan Airlines Mileage Bank as a 1,000:1,000 transfer partner yesterday, and they’ve got a 30% transfer bonus pushing this to 1,000:1,300 through October 24. Caveat emptor: Unused miles expire for normies after three years and can’t be reset unless you transition to a non-normie.

    RIP the usefulness of this program. Which program, you ask? Citi or JAL? Yes.
  3. Citi ThankYou has a 25% transfer bonus to Avianca Lifemiles through October 24.
  4. The reddit churning purge (don’t ask) surfaced some new personal card no-lifetime language (NLL) AmEx links:

    – Platinum: 175,000 points after $12,000 spend in six months
    – Delta Gold: 80,000 SkyMiles + $250 after $3,000 spend in six months
    – Delta Platinum: 90,000 SkyMiles + $300 after $4,000 spend in six months
    – Bonvoy Bevy: 125,000 points + $150 after $5,000 spend in six months (this one is actually not NLL, but is pop-up free)

    Personal is great and all, but the business versions typically have better sign-up bonuses and won’t show up on your credit report unless you’re, uhh, lame.
  5. Staples in-store has fee-free $200 Visas through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.

Happy Monday!

A reddit /r/churning purge van spotted in the wild (thanks to elezar)