I was surprised when the feature was extended from 2025 into 2026, so color me double surprised that it’s now been extended through the end of 2028.
Ye-olde American Express BBT seems to have died, or at least is in long term cryo-storage bug mode. Don’t know what that is? That’s ok, it won’t affect you in that case.
Welcome back to our ongoing risk series … err, what’s the opposite of masterclass? Yeah that thing. Today, we’re tackling credit risk, which frankly goes both ways just like a poorly tuned metronome:
The risk an individual bank sees
The risk that you’re controlling
Spoiler: The bank’s risk is minimal compared to yours.
Bank’s Perspective: You Look Like a Baddie, and not a Good Baddie
Normal people use their credit card for a few hundred dollars worth of groceries, Netflix, the local coffee spot, a restaurant or two, with wild out of the ordinary purchases once or twice a year that exceed $1,500, like say a new couch.
A manufactured spender, on the other hand, might spend $5,599.99 one minute, $1,999.99 at a store repeatedly over the next 10 minutes, and then $2,047.60 five minutes later, all using the same card. Sure, you can train a bank’s algorithm to think that’s normal, but the second a fraud analyst looks at your transactions, the jig is up. When an analyst looks at a manufactured spender’s account, scary sounding terms like bust-out (it looks like it), money laundering (it’s not), identity theft (it’s not), fraud (it’s not), and spending problem (guilty) start appearing in their mind.
The bank is going to take that and go one of two ways:
Financial review: Pause your credit accounts, require your tax returns, and then ask you to justify how you can spend $90,000 daily on a W-2 job that definitely doesn’t pay that daily, or even monthly
Shutdown: They just close all your accounts, blacklist your social security number (unless they don’t), and accidentally mail you a check for -$0.33 to cover your confiscated points balance
So, how do you manage credit risk as seen from the bank’s perspective?
Train the automated algorithms so they don’t fraud alert while you’re buying $1,015.90 in bananas
Don’t do things that cause an analyst to look at your account
Have enough funds at the institution to give them confidence that you’ll be able to pay your credit card bill
It also helps to know which banks are more tolerant; like most things there’s a spectrum.
The Credit Risk You See
The way in which some manufactured spenders string together FinTechs, quasi-banking institutions, and rewards cards is magical at best and demonic at worst. It’s great when everything is working though! Let’s take a sample fictitious loop:
You probably earn something at most of those steps along the way. Cool, eh?
Now, what if you’re floating $450,000 spend spread across a dozen credit cards in-between statements while running through this loop, and PayPal decides it’s going to freeze your account and hold existing funds for 180 days? In the process, it rejects an incoming payment and causes the futures market provider to hold its funds too.
Now you’ve got some or all of that $450,000 tied up for six months, and probably credit card bills coming due to multiple lenders in less than a few weeks.
How do you manage that?
The age-old adage: Never float more than you can afford to lose (hopefully only lose temporarily in this case)
Why do one big loop when you can have multiple smaller, hopefully uncorrelated loops? Let one fail rather than all of them
Have a plan for stitching together the ends of the loop when the middle fails
Chargebacks? (Don’t do this)
Good luck out there, and have a nice weekend friends!
Next time: How to know when the jig is up, networking style.
– 30,000 Membership Rewards or a $300 statement credit after $2,500+ spend on US-originating flights at ANA through November 30 – $50 statement credit with $250+ spend at Best Western through December 31
60,000 ThankYou points after $4,000 spend in 90 days
$150 (or 15,000 points) via Rakuten
This card often has a 80,000 point bonus which is *checks notes* 20,000 points more than currently. That bonus especially likes to appear in Q4 too. Even if you only value Citi ThankYou points at their straight-to-cash value of one cent each, waiting for the increased sign-up bonus would give $200 in additional ThankYou Points. Last I checked $200 > $150. Of course Rakuten will still probably offer its regular, non-increased rate of $50 back when the bonus jumps to 80,000. Also, last I checked $200+$50 > $150.
tl;dr: Having an increased bonus on a portal doesn’t mean you’re getting a good deal. (Thanks to reader Harisch for letting me know about the increased offer in September)
Happy Wednesday!
On the other hand, there’s always alternative math.
Do this now: Choose a free Alaska Atmos Community for extra mileage earning and benefits in 2026. The best options for most of the US are:
– Global Locals: 10% extra status points on international travel – National Parks: Incremental extra miles and status points on some US destinations – Families on the Go: 20% miles rebate on award flights for kids 12 years and younger
For the last n years, where n = 1, United has had a 20% bonus for incoming hotel miles in the second half of October. With counting statistics, that puts the error at ± 1, so you’ve got a chance of between 0% and 100% of this returning again this year. Thanks math! (Thanks to mmrose1980)
Hyatt is back on Capital One Shopping, which currently means at least a 1% rebate on paid Hyatt stays without forgoing elite benefits. Gamers will probably find a lot more than 1% too. (Thanks to FM)
– $699 annual fee – Effectively 2% earner on purchases, at least as long as you redeem for airfare – $200 annual airline credit – $100 annual dining credit – A Priority Pass with restaurant access
If you’ve got the right angle and dig deep, there’s a little hidden value in this card.
– Hyatt charges Bilt more than its other partners – Chase paved the road with its devaluation – They wanted to see how affiliates downplay the devaluation – Richard Kerr doesn’t like puppies
To Bilt’s credit, you’ve got three months notice of impending doom.
– Club: 90,000+10,000 miles after $5,000 spend in three months – Quest: 80,000+10,000 miles after $4,000 spend in three months – Explorer: 70,000+10,000 miles after $3,000 spend in three months – Gateway: 40,000+10,000 miles after $1,000 spend in three months
Business – Annual fee increased from $99 to $200 – Free night worth 50,000 points – Lots of stupid coupons including $25 quarterly in food credits at IHG – $100 airline credit with $250+ annual airline spend – 15 elite nights annually
Premier – Annual fee increased from $99 to $150 – Gold status instead of previous platinum – Free night worth 50,000 points – Lots of stupid coupons including $25 quarterly in food credits at IHG – $100 airline credit with $250+ annual airline spend – 15 elite nights annually
Premier Select (new card) – Annual fee increased from divide-by-zero to $350 – 200,000 points after $5,000 spend in three months – 6x on dining and travel, 3x elsewhere – Free night worth 60,000 points and another after $40,000 annual spend – Lots of stupid coupons including $75 quarterly in food credits at IHG – $200 airline credit with $250+ annual airline spend – 20 elite nights annually, earn more with spend – Another Global Entry credit to throw in the pile One – Five elite nights annually
The new Premier Select card is a great card for the first year (only).
