Most of these flights will necessarily be partner redemptions, and I doubt it goes uphill from here so if you’re not excited for this, well I guess prepare to be more not excited next month. (Thanks to LiftBroski)
Alaska Atmos decided to devalue mileage accrual and elite status credit on revenue saver tickets: “Saver fares (X class) earn 30% of miles flown for travel through July 31, 2026, or for trips booked before June 11, 2026. Saver fares booked on or after June 11, 2026 and flown on/after August 1, 2026 do not earn Atmos Rewards points. For eligible travel on/after August 1, please allow 4–6 weeks for points to post.”
Since March-ish (Smarch), both American Express and Chase have been shutting down some of the biggest gamers in the sport. They’re looking different than past shutdowns, so let’s document some new behaviors starting today with Chase.
Shutdown: What of the Ultimate Rewards?
In recent years when you’ve been shutdown by Chase, they’ve given you 30 days (or 90 in New York) to cash out your points. That’s all changed though; we’ve seen two new recent behaviors with points, neither of which matches what used to happen:
Some accounts have points forfeited immediately (and a few of those will have a line-item that says “courtesy adjustment” to add insult to injury)
Some accounts have points cashed out at 1.0 cents immediately
The old 30 day point rule isn’t around like it used to be, at least for the big guns. There’s also varying behavior on what happens with pending points that post after you’ve been shutdown. Again, you’ve got two possibilities, and what happened with your stash of points seems to have no bearing on what happens with your pending points. Your pending points will either:
Be transferrable when they post
Forfeited
If you’re shutdown, a random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your posted points, and a different random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your pending points. What’s the random number generator? I think a team of humans is handling these cases, and they’re not completely consistent with one another.
The Deposit Accounts
Avoiding Chase deposit accounts is manufactured spend 101, but not everyone follows that advice. For recent shutdowns of cardholders with deposit accounts we’ve seen a bit of random behavior there too:
Some shutdown cardholders have their deposit accounts stick around
Some shutdown cardholders have all of their deposit accounts closed
Some shutdown cardholders see some of their deposit accounts closed
I think the varied behavior here is a further indication that we’re dealing with a team of humans that isn’t completely consistent.
The Causes
The cause for most of the shutdowns is probably pretty obvious if you spend a few minutes thinking about how one might scale, then spend a few minutes thinking about how you might scale your scale, but let’s just say it boils down to one or both of:
Earning lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase
Redeeming lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase
If that’s not enough and you like bad translations, there’s public info on some of these recent Chase shutdowns at UCSF.
Avoiding The Shutdowns
If you’re a heavy-hitting whale that’s not yet shutdown at Chase, you probably know that what you’re doing is moving toward a brick wall, and you’re probably doing your best to earn as much as you can before the wall wants its dues. A common sentiment amongst most affected by the shutdowns seems to be “it was worth it”.
If you’re not a heavy-hitting whale, this probably isn’t something you need to be super concerned about.
The Permanence
If you were shutdown, what does getting back in look like? Well, you might be surprised to learn that it seems random:
Some people get back (seemingly-permanently) after waiting a month or two
Some people get back after waiting, only to have the cards cancelled shortly after activation
Some people are instantly denied or have approvals rescinded before cards can be activated
Again, the same process governing the other aspects of recent shutdowns is probably governing these too.
Mini-Analysis
I’ve avoided mentioning something because I largely don’t agree with it, but, let’s mention it anyway: there’s rampant speculation that the rise of AI has given Chase an easy way to find the gamers. The only evidence I can see for this is the inconsistency because AI is currently great at that, but I genuinely think that’s just humans doing human things.
I think what’s new and why we’re seeing new waves and behaviors is that we recently got:
Uncapped 8x earning
Lots of 2 cents per point redemptions
Taken together at volume, those things probably caused a big enough blip on someone’s radar to have a team look into what was going on. But what do I know?
Have a nice weekend friends!
Chase’s equipment shows why it was hard to see the blip before we arrived at “8x*2cpp = bad”.
– Synchrony will axe you if you cycle this thing, though it may take a few months – Categories on this card are weird, but typically weird good not weird bad – The targeted offer isn’t at Venmo.com
Your Venmo account will survive if your card is axed. Oh, and at the risk of taking more flak, the sites that “always show you the best offer” don’t seem to be showing this offer… yet?
The Bank of America personal Alaska Atmos cards have increased sign-up bonuses:
– Ascent: 85,000 miles after $4,500 spend in 120 days. – Summit: 100,000 miles after $6,000 spend in 90 days
Why no business? I’m not sure, wait for April 1 I guess.
– There wasn’t previously a great way for US members to earn Miles & More – Lufthansa and Swiss availability is much better with Miles & More – Swiss First is bookable with matchable Miles & More Senator status
With this development and with Rove’s ability to maintain elite benefits on hotel bookings, it’s probably a good idea to include Rove in your comparison shopping when booking paid hotel nights. Rove has referral bonuses, so use someone’s referral link if you’re going to join.
The major airline portals have shopping portal bonuses (ordered by expiration date):
These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
Stop & Shop, Giant, and Martins have 6x point earning on third party gift cards through Thursday, limit $2,000 per loyalty account (or 4x earning for Giant Food because apparently it’s a running joke at the parent company).
Referral offers for the Freedom and Sapphire Reserve are generally a much better deal for the referrer, but Chase Business referrals are restricted to new businesses (to Chase) only, so the Rakuten bonus is often the best choice. (Thanks to DoC)
This opening though has none of those articles, indicating that American Express didn’t pay for first class tickets, hotel rooms, and fine dining for a bunch of affiliate bloggers to get a sneak peak complete with pre-written copy for their posts. In other words, American Express seems to be dialing back its marketing budget significantly. When banks pare back on their marketing budget, it’s usually because they expect bad earnings, increased credit write-offs, a recession, or some combination of all of these things. Which is it? The excitement is palpable.
– 0.5x earning – 2,500 Rapid Rewards after $100 spend in 90 days – $6.99 monthly fee is waived with $2,500 on deposit at Sunrise – Annual bonus of up to 7,500 Rapid Rewards based on spend
There’s almost certainly some juice here for the right use cases. An important, outstanding question is whether you can hold both this card and the likely upcoming United Debit card also issued by Sunrise simultaneously.
We haven’t played Breeze route bingo for a while, but let’s fix that. Today’s bingo route is Bentonville, AR – Gulfport, LA. If you have a bingo, write in for an exclusive* 35% off of base fare promo code.
Happy Wednesday!
Future campaign slogan for bringing back the old Breeze Route Bingo™ prizes.
The current sign-up bonus end date of July 9 (today)
The conversion of the Sears variant of the card to a ThankYou card a few months ago
… it’s easy to draw a conclusion that the writing is likely on the wall and the card will be pulled for new applicants shortly. My normal advice is to not apply for credit cards on blogger’s timelines, but this might be an exception. If you want the card, I think there’s a decent chance that you need to apply for it today. (Thanks to Derthsidious)
– 1,500 Bonvoy points and 1,000 United MileagePlus miles for a stay after August 31 – 500 United MileagePlus miles per stay at Marriott properties – 750 Bonvoy points per United flight
Afterward for masochists, consider how many United flights you’d have to take to earn a free night at a Marriott Courtyard.
– $125 statement credit with $750+ spend or $200 statement credit with $1,500+ spend monthly in gas, grocery, or restaurants through December – $100 statement credit with $500+ spend or $150 statement credit with $1,000+ spend in monthly in gas, grocery, or restaurants through December
Those who didn’t have that type of offer seem to already have a prior monthly version. (Thanks to Peter, bktran, TeddyH, and K).
The Sapphire Reserve business card only has charities as an option, and only at 1.25 cents per point. At least you still can buy a $50 Lululemon gift card for free twice a year I guess, which works out approximately 0.63 pants per year.
– Business Gold: 90,000 SkyMiles after $6,000 spend in six months, waived annual fee – Business Platinum: 100,000 SkyMiles after $8,000 spend in six months – Business Reserve : 110,000 SkyMiles after $12,000 spend in six months
The personal cards still have regular lifetime language in their offer terms.
– Every card with an annual fee gets a bigger annual fee – The no-annual fee Gateway card doesn’t get XN inventory access unless you have $10,000 in annual spend – One time lounge access passes are no longer transferrable – You can now earn 1K status with nothing but spend on either of the ridiculously priced $695 personal and business Club cards – There are new credits on the annual fee cards, most of which are annoying, carved up throughout the year, and less valuable than they seem – Lounge access gets more restrictive without massive spend
Now’s a good time to book for other reasons too, like avoiding change fees on cheap tickets and paying bag fees, all of which will be implemented soon. Unfortunately double secret Rapid Rewards redemption values already quietly launched yesterday.
We haven’t played Breeze Dartboard Bingo™ for a while, but in honor of National Peach Cobbler today, we’ll take another round. [drumroll] Today’s draw is: Pensacola, FL to Norfolk, VA, PNS-ORF! If you hit Bingo, come see the MEAB front desk for your prize.
