Author: matt

Introduction

Last week for Prime Day (which spans multiple days obviously), the American Express Amazon Business Prime card had a $200 sign-up bonus. That shouldn’t have been news unless there were referral or resurrection shenanigans afoot, but somehow it still was. The Chase Amazon Prime Visa had a sign up bonus of $250 too, but shouldn’t have been news either. Given that context, what sign-up bonus is news? Or, even better, when is it worthwhile signing up for a card?

The Factors

The calculus of a new card for a churner are mainly:

  • A hard pull on your credit report (cost)
  • A new credit line on your credit report (cost)
  • Taking up a credit card slot at a bank (cost)
  • Sign-up bonus (benefit)
  • Ongoing card benefits (I mean, it’s in the name)
  • Good bonus category multipliers for manufactured spenders
  • Impressing your friends and waitstaff when you pay for dinner with a Toys R Us cobranded credit card (benefit)

Turning that into the Value Equation

The best bonuses at AmEx, Capital One, and Chase will be worth ~$2,000-$3,000 after annual fees with hand waivey math. For Citi, Bank of America, US Bank, and your average credit union $750 – $1,250 are typical.

The best unlimited category bonus cards give a cash out value of ~3% – 6%+, and much more with category capped or spend limited bonuses.

The type of game you play makes one of these two factors matter a lot more than the other, but both provide a basis for when you should get a card:

  • If sign up bonuses are the bigger part of your earn, make sure you’re getting a value of at least
    • $750+ for US Bank, Citi, Bank of America, or a random credit union personal card
    • $1,250+ for AmEx, Chase, or Capital One
  • If manufactured spend is the bigger part, shoot for
    • 3x or 3% minimum return

Back to these Amazon cards that led the story – it’s really not hard for most people to get Amazon gift cards at a discount of at least 5%, even more so if you have easy access to a Kroger. So, I’m not sure the earn argument is valid either. But you do you, I’m sure there are angles out there that I don’t see.

Happy Wednesday!

“Shouldn’t have been but still was” news isn’t new.

  1. The Ramp Business Visa card has a heightened sign-up bonus via referrals of $1,500 after $1,000 spend. You’ll need a business email account, and you’ll have to link a business checking account with Plaid to confirm that your business has $25,000 in funds too.

    What’s a business email account? One that doesn’t end in gmail.com, hotmail.com, emailbarn.com, freeinbox.com, ieatbonvoy.com, or similar. (Thanks to DoC)
  2. There are shopping portal bonuses announced yesterday to celebrate Bastille Day (I guess?):

    – United: 2,500 MileagePlus miles after $600+ in spend by August 11
    – Southwest: 2,000 Rapid Rewards miles after $500 in spend by August 11

    Giftcards.com remains a viable option.
  3. Barclays JetBlue cardholders have a widely targeted offer for 5x on groceries, 4x at gas and drug stores, and 10x for JetBlue ecosystem charges, limited to 10,000 points extra above regular earning. (Thanks to Ok-Anywhere6998)

A churner tried to use [email protected] with Ramp.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s promotion for 777 bonus points per night at casino hotels through September 30. (Un)fortunately, the dirty castle is no longer part of Hyatt’s portfolio and the Rio is a poor stand-in.
  2. Do this now: Make backup bookings for any existing Advantage car rental reservations because they may be in the midst of collapse.
  3. Staples has fee-free $200 Mastercards in store through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. US Bank has a $450 checking bonus for new Smartly checking accounts with $8,000+ spread over two direct deposits, or over two “direct deposits”, the first of which has to happen in 30 days. This is mainly interesting for establishing a Smartly account for higher payouts on the related but different US Bank Smartly credit card.

    If you’re not in US Bank’s footprint, opening a brokerage account first will get your foot in the door for other products.
  5. Bilt Blit is losing their relationship with Wells Fargo in favor of Cardless with three tiers of cards in (probably) June 2026. After the transition, it’ll probably switch from the Mastercard network to the American Express network. Is that a net positive or negative? Depends on your game I suppose, but at least Cardless dropped its one card per lifetime rule.
  6. American Express Offers has a targeted offer for $40 off of $200+ at Caesars through October 31.

Happy Monday friends!

From US Bank’s FAQ: Even they understand that direct deposits are often “direct deposits”

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is a Friday guest post in a short summer series running on Fridays while I’m traveling. Today’s author is the juxtaposition of a Prius mixed with an accounting Professor and generally needs no introduction but will get one anyway: Florian.

In the churning world expectation value (EV) and math are afterthoughts based on my experience in many semi-private groups.

There are a few things to remember:

Knowing your EV and return on investment (ROI) can help you better than going with your gut or your emotions, which both bring the dilemma “Should I risk getting  shutdown for this?”

For example, Synchrony doesn’t like it when one gamer goes on a cycling spree like a drone buzzing over its target, many do this, without further consideration. Let’s do  some math to illustrate the best outcome:

  • Assume your best game is buying espresso form JerrryBrothers with your Venmo for 3%
  • Assume you also buy espresso with other Synchrony cards that earn less
  • Assume you can earn more on the payment side, maybe 2%
  • If you spend $40,000 per month and earn a blended average of 3%, you’re earning $1,200 monthly

That’s $1,200 a month for the value of your Synchrony relationship. Assuming one spends month a year in Isle of Man, you’ll net 11 * $1,200 , or $13,200.

If you’re shut down though and it takes you 8 months to get back in, that’s about $9,600.

So, if your edge or game is worth losing $9,600 if it fails then go for it. Remember though, the less you know the more the risk, as you don’t know if and when you get back in.

There are many such games with similar analyses, especially like getting kicked out of Target world or Costco world which might upset P2. You can’t price this risk, you want the P2 happy, 

I guess the message is: Always probe like a bot on or not a bot, and knowing your EV and ROI helps you make better decisions.

– Florian

Pictured: The decoder ring used to translate today’s post from Florianish, which is a loose derivate of English, to English, which is the most unstructured language I know of.

  1. The Citi AAdvantage Platinum Select personal Mastercard has a heightened offer of 80,000 AA miles after $3,500 spend in four months, and the annual fee is waived for the first year.
  2. Kroger stores have a 4x fuel points sale on third party gift cards excluding Amazon, and fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards tomorrow only.

    For those keeping track at home: Kroger had more days with 4x fuel points earning in the last two months than days without. In a turn everyone could have predicted, that’s flooded the fuel points market pushing points rates way down.
  3. Canadian carrier Porter Airlines tickets can now be booked with Alaska MileagePlan. Carry-on bags are included. (Thanks to FM)

Happy Thursday!

The inspiration for this summer’s Kroger “(Almost) Everyday Sale Price” 4x promotions.

The Citi Shop Your Way Card, the original in the Unsung Hero series, was pulled from Citi’s card lineup page yesterday. When you combine this with:

  • The current sign-up bonus end date of July 9 (today)
  • The conversion of the Sears variant of the card to a ThankYou card a few months ago

… it’s easy to draw a conclusion that the writing is likely on the wall and the card will be pulled for new applicants shortly. My normal advice is to not apply for credit cards on blogger’s timelines, but this might be an exception. If you want the card, I think there’s a decent chance that you need to apply for it today. (Thanks to Derthsidious)

Good luck!

Churning status check.

  1. The American Express Business Platinum has a new no-lifetime language (NLL) offer for 200,000 Membership Rewards after $20,000 spend in three months.

    Gamers can often find regular links with 250,000 Membership Rewards and manage to get approved despite lifetime language, but there’s utility in the easy game too. (Thanks to DDG)
  2. American Express offers has an offer for $255 off of $1,250 at ITA Airways through September 7.
  3. Rakuten In-Store has new manufactured spender favorite promotions for July (just make sure you link your credit cards used in store to your Rakuten wallet):

    – 1x at Food Lion
    – 1x at Stop & Shop

    Each promotion is limited to $10 cash back or 1,000 Membership Rewards per transaction, and each must be re-activated an hour after first use. Both stores sell gift cards.
  4. American Express Membership Rewards has a 15% transfer bonus to Avianca Lifemiles through July 31. These miles are great for Star Alliance awards when the program sees the space, but there’s plenty of Star Alliance space hidden by the program so I guess trust but verify?
  5. Southwest has a fare sale for “up to 50% off” of base fares with promo code BIGDEAL for travel between August 4 and December 17 booked by Thursday night. There are of course blackout dates around when you really want to fly, and the promotion applies only to Basic and Wanna Get Away Plus fares.

    I guess technically “0% off” falls within “up to 50% off”, so blackout dates are only imaginary.
  6. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 in Visa gift cards through Saturday. For best results:

    – Buy in even multiples of $300
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back
    – Different cards have different fees

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Happy Tuesday friends!

At least the promo code is fun to type.

  1. Do this now: Register for 8,000 bonus points after two stays at Choice Hotels through September 2. Yes, they sell this as a $50 gift card, but that’s because (1) they’re bad at marketing, and (2) 8,000 points can be cashed out for a gift card.
  2. Meijer stores have $10 off of $150+ in Mastercard gift cards through Saturday, coupon clip required.

    Meijer sells both Pathward and Sunrise gift cards.
  3. Mandatory reporting requirements for financial services are changing:

    – 1099-K reporting limits increased to $20,000 for 2025 and beyond
    – 1099-MISC reporting limits increased to $2,000 for 2026 and beyond

    Manufactured spenders sending money to themselves should be particularly excited about the former. Bank bonus chasers may be happy about the latter, but you’re still required to report bank bonus income even in the absence of a 1099-MISC. As always, I’m not a tax professional and I’m definitely not your tax professional. Don’t take my advice about anything, ever. (Thanks to DoC)
  4. The Chase Sapphire Reserve Business card is now available via referrals from other Ink cards. After October 17, in theory referrals will only work to people without existing Chase Business cards. Prior to October 17 though we gucci.
  5. The Chase United card family has an offer for 1,500 MileagePlus miles after five digital wallet purchases, registration required. A couple of notes:

    – You can buy five bananas at self check out, right?
    – Costco cashiers will generally happily oblige to “can I charge $1 to this card”

    There are other games too, be creative (but not too creative, it’s only 1,500 miles).
  6. American Express offers has an offer for $60 off of $300+ at Alaska Airlines. To game it, you could:

    – Book non-basic economy, cancel to your wallet after 24 hours
    – Book non-basic economy, cancel to an emailed wallet code after 24 hours, which is separately useful

    Yes, you can get deeper if you want.
  7. Citi Offers has an offer for a $50 statement credit with $200+ at JetBlue through August 31. Citi usually lets you redeem these on multiple cards too.

Happy Monday!

Digging deeper, ocean style.