Author: matt

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is a Friday guest post in a short summer series running on Fridays while I’m traveling. Today’s author is the juxtaposition of a Prius mixed with an accounting Professor and generally needs no introduction but will get one anyway: Florian.

In the churning world expectation value (EV) and math are afterthoughts based on my experience in many semi-private groups.

There are a few things to remember:

Knowing your EV and return on investment (ROI) can help you better than going with your gut or your emotions, which both bring the dilemma “Should I risk getting  shutdown for this?”

For example, Synchrony doesn’t like it when one gamer goes on a cycling spree like a drone buzzing over its target, many do this, without further consideration. Let’s do  some math to illustrate the best outcome:

  • Assume your best game is buying espresso form JerrryBrothers with your Venmo for 3%
  • Assume you also buy espresso with other Synchrony cards that earn less
  • Assume you can earn more on the payment side, maybe 2%
  • If you spend $40,000 per month and earn a blended average of 3%, you’re earning $1,200 monthly

That’s $1,200 a month for the value of your Synchrony relationship. Assuming one spends month a year in Isle of Man, you’ll net 11 * $1,200 , or $13,200.

If you’re shut down though and it takes you 8 months to get back in, that’s about $9,600.

So, if your edge or game is worth losing $9,600 if it fails then go for it. Remember though, the less you know the more the risk, as you don’t know if and when you get back in.

There are many such games with similar analyses, especially like getting kicked out of Target world or Costco world which might upset P2. You can’t price this risk, you want the P2 happy, 

I guess the message is: Always probe like a bot on or not a bot, and knowing your EV and ROI helps you make better decisions.

– Florian

Pictured: The decoder ring used to translate today’s post from Florianish, which is a loose derivate of English, to English, which is the most unstructured language I know of.

  1. The Citi AAdvantage Platinum Select personal Mastercard has a heightened offer of 80,000 AA miles after $3,500 spend in four months, and the annual fee is waived for the first year.
  2. Kroger stores have a 4x fuel points sale on third party gift cards excluding Amazon, and fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards tomorrow only.

    For those keeping track at home: Kroger had more days with 4x fuel points earning in the last two months than days without. In a turn everyone could have predicted, that’s flooded the fuel points market pushing points rates way down.
  3. Canadian carrier Porter Airlines tickets can now be booked with Alaska MileagePlan. Carry-on bags are included. (Thanks to FM)

Happy Thursday!

The inspiration for this summer’s Kroger “(Almost) Everyday Sale Price” 4x promotions.

The Citi Shop Your Way Card, the original in the Unsung Hero series, was pulled from Citi’s card lineup page yesterday. When you combine this with:

  • The current sign-up bonus end date of July 9 (today)
  • The conversion of the Sears variant of the card to a ThankYou card a few months ago

… it’s easy to draw a conclusion that the writing is likely on the wall and the card will be pulled for new applicants shortly. My normal advice is to not apply for credit cards on blogger’s timelines, but this might be an exception. If you want the card, I think there’s a decent chance that you need to apply for it today. (Thanks to Derthsidious)

Good luck!

Churning status check.

  1. The American Express Business Platinum has a new no-lifetime language (NLL) offer for 200,000 Membership Rewards after $20,000 spend in three months.

    Gamers can often find regular links with 250,000 Membership Rewards and manage to get approved despite lifetime language, but there’s utility in the easy game too. (Thanks to DDG)
  2. American Express offers has an offer for $255 off of $1,250 at ITA Airways through September 7.
  3. Rakuten In-Store has new manufactured spender favorite promotions for July (just make sure you link your credit cards used in store to your Rakuten wallet):

    – 1x at Food Lion
    – 1x at Stop & Shop

    Each promotion is limited to $10 cash back or 1,000 Membership Rewards per transaction, and each must be re-activated an hour after first use. Both stores sell gift cards.
  4. American Express Membership Rewards has a 15% transfer bonus to Avianca Lifemiles through July 31. These miles are great for Star Alliance awards when the program sees the space, but there’s plenty of Star Alliance space hidden by the program so I guess trust but verify?
  5. Southwest has a fare sale for “up to 50% off” of base fares with promo code BIGDEAL for travel between August 4 and December 17 booked by Thursday night. There are of course blackout dates around when you really want to fly, and the promotion applies only to Basic and Wanna Get Away Plus fares.

    I guess technically “0% off” falls within “up to 50% off”, so blackout dates are only imaginary.
  6. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 in Visa gift cards through Saturday. For best results:

    – Buy in even multiples of $300
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back
    – Different cards have different fees

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Happy Tuesday friends!

At least the promo code is fun to type.

  1. Do this now: Register for 8,000 bonus points after two stays at Choice Hotels through September 2. Yes, they sell this as a $50 gift card, but that’s because (1) they’re bad at marketing, and (2) 8,000 points can be cashed out for a gift card.
  2. Meijer stores have $10 off of $150+ in Mastercard gift cards through Saturday, coupon clip required.

    Meijer sells both Pathward and Sunrise gift cards.
  3. Mandatory reporting requirements for financial services are changing:

    – 1099-K reporting limits increased to $20,000 for 2025 and beyond
    – 1099-MISC reporting limits increased to $2,000 for 2026 and beyond

    Manufactured spenders sending money to themselves should be particularly excited about the former. Bank bonus chasers may be happy about the latter, but you’re still required to report bank bonus income even in the absence of a 1099-MISC. As always, I’m not a tax professional and I’m definitely not your tax professional. Don’t take my advice about anything, ever. (Thanks to DoC)
  4. The Chase Sapphire Reserve Business card is now available via referrals from other Ink cards. After October 17, in theory referrals will only work to people without existing Chase Business cards. Prior to October 17 though we gucci.
  5. The Chase United card family has an offer for 1,500 MileagePlus miles after five digital wallet purchases, registration required. A couple of notes:

    – You can buy five bananas at self check out, right?
    – Costco cashiers will generally happily oblige to “can I charge $1 to this card”

    There are other games too, be creative (but not too creative, it’s only 1,500 miles).
  6. American Express offers has an offer for $60 off of $300+ at Alaska Airlines. To game it, you could:

    – Book non-basic economy, cancel to your wallet after 24 hours
    – Book non-basic economy, cancel to an emailed wallet code after 24 hours, which is separately useful

    Yes, you can get deeper if you want.
  7. Citi Offers has an offer for a $50 statement credit with $200+ at JetBlue through August 31. Citi usually lets you redeem these on multiple cards too.

Happy Monday!

Digging deeper, ocean style.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is the second in a series of three Friday guest posts. Today’s post was written by fuzzy, a former Pepper aficionado.

So much of this game involves jumping on opportunities which, due to accident, miscalculation or unwarranted benevolence, are far more advantageous than the normal everyday spoils. Think: mistake fares, unlimited 4% cashback cards, and warehouse store cashiers taking happy pills. A few months ago, a wormhole in the universe opened up called PerfectGift, and for a brief moment enterprising churners were able to print money, in the form of Visa gift cards at 20% off. The Telegram channels blew up when the anomaly was discovered. I personally found out an hour or two after it became public, at which point, my inner voice of failure (like everyone has right? Ok just me then?) told me I’d missed my chance, and I moved on. Only to find out later, they were passing out Paddy’s Dollars for several hours, which could easily have paid for my poor Aunt Sally’s last dying wish. (“Fuzzy”, she whispered, “promise me before I’m gone you’ll put me up in the Park Hyatt Shanghai and upgrade me to a junior suite.”)

Which brings to mind (as everything does) Pepper – the app that achieved a fair bit of notoriety last year selling a changing panel of major gift card brands like Amazon and Target at 10% off. Those discounts took the form of “coins” redeemable for more gift cards. The jeopardy to purchasers was that most of those coins weren’t awarded until 2-3 weeks later. Business folk in the gift card reselling community were comfortable with that minimal risk, however, because they were churning a decent amounts of credit card points.

The engine feeding this obviously unsustainable business model was venture capital. Savvy VC investors were keenly attracted to Pepper’s 100% share of the selling-gift-cards-at-a-steep-loss market. And then earlier this year Pepper – facing intense competition from literally no one – kicked it into high gear, and began offering 20%, then 25%, then 30% off. Meanwhile, individual purchase limits exploded from $5000, to $9000, to $17,000 per day.

If this had happened in any other context over the course of ONE SINGLE AFTERNOON, Telegram would’ve flat out melted, and the smarties who scored a couple hundred of Sam’s Club at -30% would be laughing like hyenas at the rest of us, and my inner voice of failure would be laughing right there with them. And yet – the height of Pepper madness continued. For. Two. Months.

Pepper enthusiasts with the foresight and bravado to completely drop the throttle exactly when things went bonkers – amateurs even, who took quite nicely to six figure statements, Amex financial reviews, and suddenly having to manage a business with 99 employees – were minting literally millions of credit card points, becoming top tier airline elites, and gaining enough free hotel nights to park themselves for the season in a junior suite at the Park Hyatt Shanghai. I, on the other hand (sorry Aunt Sally!), followed my inner voice, LOUDLY stomped out of the Pepper Telegram chat, and spent the next several weeks drowning my sorrows in 24 ounce cans of grape strawberry FOMO.The Pepper frenzy has ended. The last stalwarts were left holding the bag (or they may yet recover their stranded coins lol). However – except for perhaps a few unfortunates who got on at the very end – everyone who still has money coming to them has already recovered the value of that money several times over.

What is the takeaway here? First, the conventional wisdom remains intact: If something appears too good to be true, it probably is. The emphasis however is on “probably”, because as we know, a thing can be too good to be true, and also exist. The mass and timespan of the ostensibly too-good-to-be-true play will be dictated by various factors, such as the number of people who are onto the deal, or who have access to it, and especially, the motivation (if any) of the person (or algorithm) who made that too-good thing available in the first place. When the too-good thing owes its existence to venture capital, don’t trouble yourself with the fact that it’s a too-good thing, just thank your VC benefactors and book your junior suites.

– fuzzy

Pepper’s VC’s other investment: No competition door installation.

In churning, there are times in which miles are locked, cash is frozen, stock market trades are blocked, ACHs are held, sports books aren’t paying, and a dozen other circumstances get in your way, all of which mean you’re not able to:

  • Earn interest on your money
  • Make stock trades when it’s advantageous
  • Book award tickets when availability pops

It’s easy to look back on those lost opportunities and dwell on the financial loss, and psychologically speaking a small loss hurts more than a big win feels good. My best advice for dealing with those losses is to learn from them, but don’t dwell on them. After you’ve examined them and figured out what you could do differently in the future, start looking forward.

Have a nice day friends!

Lessons apply to cities too.

  1. Do this now (for Marriott Bonvoy Ambassadors and Titaniums): Register for United and Marriott’s reciprocal earning:

    – 1,500 Bonvoy points and 1,000 United MileagePlus miles for a stay after August 31
    – 500 United MileagePlus miles per stay at Marriott properties
    – 750 Bonvoy points per United flight

    Afterward for masochists, consider how many United flights you’d have to take to earn a free night at a Marriott Courtyard.
  2. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, the Paris train system of credit cards, has new beginning of the month spend offers:

    – $125 statement credit with $750+ spend or $200 statement credit with $1,500+ spend monthly in gas, grocery, or restaurants through December
    – $100 statement credit with $500+ spend or $150 statement credit with $1,000+ spend in monthly in gas, grocery, or restaurants through December

    Those who didn’t have that type of offer seem to already have a prior monthly version. (Thanks to Peter, bktran, TeddyH, and K).
  3. The Chase Sapphire Reserve personal card has updated its Pay Yourself Back categories for Q3. Grocery, gas, home improvement, and annual fees will be reimbursed at 1.25 cents per point, and select charities at 1.5 cents per point.

    The Sapphire Reserve business card only has charities as an option, and only at 1.25 cents per point. At least you still can buy a $50 Lululemon gift card for free twice a year I guess, which works out approximately 0.63 pants per year.
  4. American Express offers has a new offer for 20,000 Membership Rewards or a $200 statement credit after $1,000+ spend with AirFrance / KLM.

    Yes, it’s not hard to hit this offer with a family traveling to Europe. But also, it’s possible to hit it in less obvious ways.
  5. The American Express Delta Business cards have no-lifetime language (NLL) links that match their recent normal link heightened sign-up bonus:

    – Business Gold: 90,000 SkyMiles after $6,000 spend in six months, waived annual fee
    – Business Platinum: 100,000 SkyMiles after $8,000 spend in six months
    – Business Reserve : 110,000 SkyMiles after $12,000 spend in six months

    The personal cards still have regular lifetime language in their offer terms.
  6. American Express Membership Rewards will reduce the transfer ratio to Emirates Skywards on September 18 from 5:5 to 5:4. Or if you prefer, from 225:255 to 225:180, because math is fun (or at least it’s “fun”, idk).
  7. AirFrance / KLM FlyingBlue has released its July promo rewards for travel through December 31. US cities in this month’s promotion are: Portland OR, Austin TX, Atlanta GA, and Dallas TX.

    Economy flights are 18,750 miles and business class are 60,000 miles each way.

Happy Wednesday!

Math is just as “fun” for computers as it is for us.