Category: Scaling

EDITOR’S NOTE: Please indulge me for a Monday delirium post after an amazing weekend of networking.

In churning, or in real life, consider the sum of everything you know and ask yourself two questions:

  • What percentage of everything did I learn from someone else, and what percentage did I discover?
  • How much did I earn from each of the above?

Of course “always be probing”, but maybe also “always be networking” too. We often stand on each other’s shoulders.

Happy Monday!

Pictured: A churner Falls from a PPBP pyramid. (Too soon?)

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card sent new offers last week:

    – $100 statement credit with $1,000+ in online spend
    – $75 statement credit with $750+ in online spend
    – 10% back on home improvement spend up to $100 back monthly for May, June, and July

    (Thanks to Peter and Jason C)
  2. The merger between Capital One and Discover became official yesterday. This is interesting for churners for a few reasons:

    – If you’re shut down at Capital One, getting a Discover card may be a backdoor in
    – Discover cards may turn into more lucrative Capital One cards
    – Credit lines at Discover may become transferrable to other Capital One cards
    – Games that Capital One hates may soon be games that Discover hates

    For those with Discover Miles cards, maybe you’ll get lucky and Discover miles will become transferrable to Capital One mileage transfer partners, so hedge your hoard.
  3. Monday Mad-Libs Mash-Up: American Express Membership Rewards transfers to Hawaiian miles is scheduled to end on June 30. Obviously __________________ [opinion] Alaska MileagePlan _________________ [reaction] happy, but also _________________ [reaction] sad. At least my favorite ___________ [item] is ________________ [adjective] so I can cope.

    The best response gets a free vintage airline postcard of your choice at the thrift store of your choice, paid for by any card of your choice in your current possession.
  4. Staples has fee free $200 Mastercards through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  5. Hyatt has a new promotion that isn’t tied to its apparently needy Under Canvas brand: Link your Peloton and Hyatt accounts for 500 bonus Hyatt points per Peloton ride through June 15 at a Hyatt hotel of at least 20 minutes. (Thanks to DDG)
  6. Bank of America is changing the sign-up bonus for two cards starting on June 1. Both will have a $200 welcome bonus after $1,000 in spend, and they’ll also offer a boosted earn for the first year:

    – Customized Cash: Double cash back in the first year with $2,500 quarterly cap on bonus category earn
    – Unlimited Cash Rewards: Unlimited 2% base earning instead of 1.5% base earning

    It may look like a sleeper, but with the right precious eyes, that second one is an outstanding offer. Also, why mention weeks before June 1? So you can lower credit lines and flush your existing Bank of America portfolio to prepare.

Have a nice Monday friends!

Monday vibes.

Major US Airlines are all targeting Southwest elites with extremely generous “twist-the-knife while they’re dying” style status matches, and that means you’ve got a unique opportunity for manufacturing a ton of airline status with a single swing. Let’s start with earning A-List Preferred using a Chase Southwest credit card:

  • $5,000 spent = 1,500 tier points
  • 35,000 tier points = A-List
  • 70,000 tier points = A-List Preferred

In post-mathematics words, $230,000 in real or manufactured spend takes you from zero to A-List Preferred, or if you’re an underachiever $115,000 spend takes you from zero to A-List. Now, once you’ve got that status, combine with:

So, for $230,000 in manufactured spend you can hold status with all of the top five US airlines and also status in every major airline alliance in the world, MEAB style.

Happy hunting!

Next time: taking it to the next level.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s Q2 promotion for 777 bonus points per night on up to 20 nights between April 10 and June 9 at casino properties.

    We may not have The Dirty Castle™ any more for phantom spotting, but at least we have The Sad Samba™.
  2. Do this now: Register for National Emerald’s Q2 promotion for a free day with every two midsize or larger rentals of two days or longer between April 1 and June 22.
  3. Staples has fee-free $200 Visa gift cards starting Sunday and running through the following Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. This is your last weekend to figure out what to do with your Q1 American Express Business Platinum and Surpass Hilton credits. There are often local angles, but if you can’t find them or don’t want to deal with them, brunch at a corporate Hilton or Hilton Resort will almost always work in a pinch.

And let’s end today with a timely bit of weekend wisdom: In churning and manufactured spend the main goal is usually to take advantage of the spread between profit and loss, generally with very little risk, and turn that into a machine. Well, occasionally there’s a time where you know the spread is going to change for the worse at some point in the near future. When that happens, consider swinging for the fences taking to the extent that your risk tolerance allows.

Have a nice weekend friends!

Hilton Garden Inn breakfasts can be paid with AmEx credits (delicious breakfast not pictured).

One of the hardest transitions between casual churning and becoming a heavy hitter is the switch from earning miles and points to earning cash back.

The transition should happen when you’ve earned all the miles and points you can spend cover your travel for the next 12-18 months, because:

  • Miles and points devalue by 30-50% in the span of years
  • The programs with the best redemptions change over time
  • Points don’t earn interest
  • The value of an unredeemed point is zero
  • Most of us don’t travel as much as we think we will (even if we travel a lot)

When you earn more points and miles than you can burn in a short time, the risk that excess points eventually become worth much less than when you earned them grows bigger than James’ Giant Peach from the famous historical documentary that I think is called “A kid finds a big fruit and someone wrote about it”.

Why do we fail to transition to cash back, even when we know analytically that it’s not the best option? The common answers I hear and that I’ve thought are:

  • Points and miles are fun, pennies aren’t
  • I’m motivated by travel, my job covers my cash needs
  • What if me and six of my closest friends need to fly Lufthansa F on last minute notice to Frankfurt and I don’t already have the miles banked, and my 800,000 Membership Rewards won’t post for another week?

They’re all valid reasons, but seeing them written can help prevent you from falling into the same trap. Trust me, you don’t want to be down 100,000 Hawaiian miles that expired a few years ago because you didn’t ever have an actual use for them and weren’t active in the program; $1,000 would have been a lot better. #askmehowiknow

Happy Wednesday!

Nerds gonna nerd.

Introduction

Alaska and Hawaiian may merge. If that happens, Hawaiian miles will transform into Alaska MileagePlan miles in a way that “preserve[s] the value of HawaiianMiles at a one-to-one ratio“. This has a bunch of people excited because:

  • Alaska MileagePlan miles are hard to earn
  • HawaiianMiles are easy to earn via American Express Membership Rewards

Alaska MileagePlan miles are valuable partially because Alaska is smaller than the big four major US airlines, and partially because again, they’re hard to earn. HawaiianMiles aren’t worth much relative to most major airline currencies, but if the merger completes then HawaiianMiles will balloon in value overnight.

The Play

Of course, gamers gonna game, and the opportunity to turn low value, easy to earn miles into more valuable miles is an obvious and attractive play. In fact, I’ll be running this play; I too like turning low value things into high value things just as much as the next churner.

The Scale

How big should you go? There are risks to going too big, namely:

On the first point, what’s the expectation value for a time to devaluation? I’d guess it falls between 18 months and 24 months based on past history. How bad is a devaluation? Usually, an average 30% increase in redemption cost is a reasonable upper limit.

The Answer

That brings a simple math formula to calculate how many miles to transfer: the number of miles I expect to redeem in the next 18 months, plus the number of miles to redeem in the following 18 months devalued by 30%, minus the number of miles I expect to earn in other ways.

The numbers for me, which are based completely on how many MileagePlan miles I earned and burned used over the last 18 months:

  • 0-18 month range:
    • 900,000 miles to burn
    • 800,000 miles to earn
  • 19-36 month range:
    • 900,000 miles to burn * 130% for a devaluation
    • 800,000 miles to earn

Running the math:

miles = (900,000 – 800,000 + 900,000 * 130% – 800,000 = 470,000 miles

And if I do it before the 20% Membership Rewards transfer bonus to Hawaiian ends on Sunday night:

miles = 470,000 / 1.20 = ~392,000 miles

So, 392,000 Membership Rewards transferred will cover me (probably) for the next 36 months. Very mindful, very demure, very cutesy. But, what about travel past 36 months from now, you ask? I guarantee my situation, the US airline situation, airline transfer partners, airline alliances, and my travel needs will be different in 36 months, and speculation beyond that timeframe is at best a guessing game, especially since an unredeemed point is worth zero.

Happy transfers friends!

Alaska’s new 2026 alliance announcement.

In sales, computing, and likely a dozen other disciplines, there are two commonly accepted types of scale:

  • Vertical, which means making a single thing do more
  • Horizontal, which means using more things to do more

A simple example for a rideshare business owner is: do you buy a school bus or more cars to move more people, and nearly as important, does your business earn 10x on a Sapphire Reserve?

In manufactured spend, scaling is possible in both ways:

  • Vertical MS: Open more cards, visit more grocery stores, run bigger charges
  • Horizontal MS: Using more accounts, usually with more players

There’s a third type of scale for manufactured spenders too, which is often a great way to make fintechs go further, and that’s what we’re going to call diagonal scale because reasons. Examples of diagonal scale:

  • Multiple players, each with multiple phones
  • Multiple players, each with 99 employee cards
  • Multiple players, each with multiple virtual assistants
  • Multiple players, each with multiple FinTech accounts
  • Multiple players, each of whom calls the CEO simultaneously, collectively known as a basket of Jimmys

For scale, always go diagonal, and remember, a bunch of diagonals = a plaid, and a plaid = a FinTech (we’ve gone full circle friends; now, we just need another square geometry joke or two. Oh wait, we definitely don’t need that.)

Manufactured spenders going plaid.

EDITORS NOTE: In 2024, I’ve introduced Guest Post Saturdays. Today’s guest post is from the witty, inspiring, and definitely-not-a-giga-chad irieriley.

If you’re like me, you likely didn’t set out in this hobby thinking you’d end up where you did. I was a backpacker when I started back in 2016, dreaming of free economy flights and upgrading from hostels to Hyatt Houses.

I did not think it would lead to hours spent probing fintechs, the rise and fall of the world’s greatest bodybuilding supplement company, and using developer tools to identify offer codes and account masking patterns.

Of course, there’s a lot of steps and shifts in perspective between seeing a TPG ad on TSA bins at LaGuardia and not giving a second thought to 99x Amex AU offers.

MEAB‘s wisdom posts contain a lot of thought provoking questions, but my all time favorite post is this one – concerning perception of dollar value, scaling your spending, and how things change as you go deeper down the rabbit hole. 

To build on Matt’s original premise, I’d posit that the same perception shift occurs with redemption. For the sake of discussion, let’s look at the value of 150k Amex MRs – a sign-up bonus that anyone with a pulse can earn with a personal Platinum card.

  • Non redeemer: What are transferable points? I’m just a giga-Chad cashing out my points for Home Depot gift cards.
  • Beginning redeemer: Wow, $6k of spend in 3 months is a lot. But 150k points transferred to Delta Skymiles must be enough to get to the moon  roundtrip to Europe in business class apparently, a one way basic economy award to Lubbock.
  • Intermediate redeemer: Look at those fools wasting their points on gift cards and transfers to domestic carriers – I got 30cpp by transferring to ANA and booking last minute one way J flights to Japan. 
  • Advanced redeemer: Things have come full circle – I have so many points that I will never be able to redeem them all for travel. I’ll book my travel a year out, and I’ll cash out the rest. 150k MRs = $1,650 with a Schwab Plat or ~$1,950 depending on my bargaining skills.

Pictured: A local business owner/giga-Chad on his way to Home Depot to convert the spoils of $7m of Amex spending into a patio furniture set.

Depending on your situation, each viewpoint can make sense. However, I’d imagine most MEAB readers fall into the final segment. 

And in a community that is largely a perfectly aligned Venn diagram with other optimizer communities like FIRE, cash is king, especially when you hit the inflection point where your ability to earn wildly outpaces your ability to burn. 

I was talking to my P2 (and fellow Waldorf Pedregal enthusiast) about how poorly I had strategized earning and redeeming early on, and she provided some much needed perspective on the whole thing when actually looking back at those first redemptions.

Some of our first cards and subsequent redemptions:

  • Citi AA Platinum pre-derAAilment – SUB used to fly AA Y to Europe, where we attended music festivals and yacht cruised as backpackers
  • Chase Southwest chasing Companion Pass – used to book Y flights to the Caribbean, where we got engaged
  • Capital One Venture – I hit the SUB on the engagement ring, and used the cashback to erase the insane VS surcharges on our first J redemption for our honeymoon

Pictured: Mr. and Mrs. irieriley in 2017 enjoying the spoils of their very first award redemption

While the strategy was akin to SideShowBob233 stepping on a rake over and over again, those first few forays into earning and burning provided more to enrich P2 and I’s lives than another $2,000 into VTI ever will. 

I think it’s ok to occasionally zoom out of doing finger math to avoid looking like a kiter or mourning your Paypal burner to remember why you started this hobby in the first place, and it’s very unlikely that you started because you wanted what sometimes feels like a second job. Instead, you wanted a way to take a trip for free, or some extra cash for bills. 

Pictured: MSers determining whether they’re clear to pull back into their hub account

If there’s anything the last 4 years have taught us, it’s that life is short. This is a friendly reminder that points can be used for something besides booking T-355 Qsuites, cashing out or selling – they’re also a tool for engineering unique experiences for you, your friends, and your family. 

Personally, I’m blowing the Chase Sapphire Reserve grocery cash out equivalent of $1,700 of URs to spend 3 nights at a Hyatt SLH 20 miles from my home. A year ago, that would have really pained me. It still does, a bit. But hey, the Hamptons in summer is otherwise too rich for my blood – may as well enjoy it before this particular hotel joins Hilton and becomes 95k 120k 150k HH/nt. And we’re definitely not going because P2 wants to be in the background of Summer House.

And yes, even for those who don’t travel and are firmly #teamcashback. Don’t forget to use your proceeds to treat yourself or a loved one every once in a while. Even if it’s just a boba during a money order run. 

– irieriley

Pictured: In keeping with the Simpsons motif, a fitting desk decoration for a MSer deep in the weeds of earning looking for some perspective