Year: 2023

In scientific circles we occasionally discuss the “epistemic gap”, which refers to things that are knowable in principle but for whatever reason we still don’t know them.

In manufactured spend there’s a favorite epistemic gap of mine: How much spend can you possibly generate in a day? You can of course ask related questions too, such as:

  • How much spend in a day if you spend only from home?
  • How much spend in a day with a grocery category multiplier?
  • How much spend in a day with a single card issuer?

I could tell you what my records for the above are, but assure you that my records aren’t world records. I can confidently say that the world records for each of the above are beyond an average American annual household’s income though.

What’s the point? If you’re not shutdown, you haven’t filled the epistemic gap, so consider whether bigger scaling makes sense or whether you’re exactly at the level you’re comfortable with.

The epistemic gap, illustrated for visual learners.

  1. Kroger has a 4x fuel points promotion in stores running on third party gift cards and fixed value Visa and Mastercards through September 19.

    Yes we’ve seen a lot of these lately, but likely this is the last round until the end of October. So as uncle Larry says, make hay while the sun shines and take advantage of this while you can.
  2. Kathy at Will Run for Miles shares a Citi Merchant Offers warning: Even though you can add merchant offers to multiple cards, at least some of them disappear from all but the last card after adding. So, double check activation if you’re trying to add an offer to multiple cards.

    For what it’s worth, this isn’t how Merchant Offers behaved in the recent past but it’s likely the new normal.
  3. Breeze Airways has 50% off of flights booked by tomorrow evening with promo code IMGAME50 for travel through March 7, 2024. There are two weeks of blackout around Thanksgiving and another two weeks of blackout around Christmas and New Years.

    Breeze Airways continues to have some of my, let’s say “favorite”, routes in the US. Today’s highlight: San Bernardino to Hartford. Stay classy Breeze.
  4. American Express Offers has either $150 or $200 back after $500 in spend at several high end Marriott properties. For bonus points, get the credit but don’t stay at a Marriott using a healthy dose of churning magic.
  5. US Bank is sending targeted statement credit offers to business cards for spend at Office Depot and Staples through October 31:

    – $50 credit after $1,000 or more in combined purchases
    – $25 credit after $400 or more in combined purchases

    Activation is required, check your email inbox for the subject “Earn up to a $50 statement credit on office supplies”. (Thanks to DDG)

Pictured: Churning magic.

  1. Do this now: Register for Southwest’s bonus companion pass qualifying points promotion. You’ll earn:

    – 2x qualifying points for paid flights
    – 3x qualifying points for paid flights booked through a corporate travel portal
    – 2x qualifying points for credit card spending
    – 1x qualifying flight for award tickets

    The promotion runs for all travel through November 30, and as far as I can tell from reading the terms and conditions it includes previously booked travel. (Thanks to the amazing Brian M)
  2. Choice Hotels has a 100% transfer bonus to United MileagePlus through October 15. This can be a good opportunity for a back door conversion from ThankYou Points to MileagePlus miles, especially if you’re shutdown with Chase:

    2,500 ThankYou Points → 5,000 Choice Points → 2,000 United MileagePlus miles

    Since ThankYou Points easily cash out at a penny each, you’re effectively buying United miles at 1.25 cents each with this promotion. (Thanks to Oliver for the link and excellent analysis)
  3. Citi Merchant Offers has a new offer for 3% back at Giftcards.com with no specified purchase limit through October 17. The offer is good for two transactions, unlike 2022 versions of the offer it doesn’t exclude gift card purchases, and recent datapoints all suggest this is working as it should for Visas and Mastercards purchases too.

    I found this offer on multiple cards and was able to add to each. (Thanks to GCG)

Happy Tuesday!

Acording to the Southwest promotion’s T&Cs, if you earn two companion passes you have to show up to the airport with body paint, as illustrated on their new safety card.

Let’s keep it short and sweet for Labor Day.

  1. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 back on $300 or more in Visa gift card purchases through Saturday. As usual, link your cards to Dosh, check for Chase Offers at Office Depot and then try and scale this slightly differently than normal.

    These are Metabank Pathward gift cards so have a liquidation plan in place.
  2. American Express has a 25% Membership Rewards transfer bonus to AirFrance/KLM FlyingBlue running through September 25. I don’t currently have an Unusng Heroes series for mileage programs, but frankly this one at least deserves an article in the future. In the mean time, a few sweet spots:

    – Delta short haul Economy and First
    – Business class to and from Europe (assuming date flexibility)
    – Europe short haul Business and Economy

    KLM is also an underappreciated airline in Business class. Fortunately, in a move that will surprise only someone with Alzheimers, it turns out that it’s possible to book KLM flights with the AirFrance/KLM FlyingBlue program.
  3. American Express has an offer for $50 back after $200 in airfare at JetBlue. As usual, gamers can game.
  4. Do this now: Register for Discover IT’s 5x merchants for October through December for up to $1,500 in spend. Amazon.com and Target are the, err, targets this year.
  5. Dell is 15x at Rakuten for the Labor Day holiday which means that now is a great time to place several orders that will be cancelled later this week.

Have a nice holiday!

The Dell Verification team cheerfully works the Labor Day holiday.

  1. The Barclays Lufthansa Miles and More credit card sign-up bonus has increased for the second time in a month to 100,000 miles after $3,000 in spend in 90 days. The $89 annual fee is not waived for the first year.

    The main use for this card continues to be to earn Miles and More, err miles, for access to awards that you can’t normally get otherwise like Swiss First. (Thanks to DoC)
  2. British Airways is one of the merchants available on the TopCashBack shopping portal with different rates for short-haul and long-haul. Apparently this has been around sporadically in the past but I just learned of it and I’m intrigued at the gaming possibilities which may or may not exist. Special thanks to Mason for bringing it to my attention.
  3. Do this now (if you live in Washington or if your SkyMiles account lives in Washington): Register for Delta12 status which earns you miles based on the Seattle Seahawks NFL season performance and Main Cabin 1 boarding during the season too.

    It’s strange, but I’ve heard of SkyMiles accounts with addresses that don’t match the address of the owner, probably because they moved and forgot to update the account or something.

Have a nice float into the long weekend!

This guy floated to Washington for Delta12.

By accident this is the fourth Quad in a row. Inception? Irony? Incompetence? I’m not sure.

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, an Unsung Hero, has started sending its next round of targeted offers. As of this writing we’ve seen:

    – 5% back on all spend up to $100 back per month for September, October, November and December (a total of $400 back)
    – $60 back after four $75 or larger purchases per month for September, October, and November (a total of $180 back)

    I expect that we’ll see a few other variants over the weekend too. (Thanks to BB_Pcola and Jacob M)
  2. DDG reports that the American Express Business Platinum 190,000 Membership Rewards sign up bonus after $15,000 in spend in three months is available by phone, and also includes a bonus 10,000 Membership Rewards for adding an employee card and spending $1,000 in the same timeframe.

    To check, dial American Express’s Small Business team at (855) 531-3491 and ask about different offers available, and note that they may not give you the best offer on the first try so keep asking if there are other offers available until you’ve exhausted the list.
  3. Kroger has a 4x fuel points promotion running over Labor Day weekend on third party gift cards and fixed value Visa and Mastercards.

    Secondary markets continue to be running overdrive partially due to the time of year, but also partially due to new end-users entering the market. If you’re working with one, make sure they’re assuming liability for closed accounts within a business day.
  4. Safeway, Albertsons, and Vons family Just4U stores have 6x points on Google Play gift cards through Tuesday. The travel angle is that Just4U rewards can be exchanged for Alaska Airlines miles with some trickery.

    The best redemption is 7 rewards for 1,200 MilagePlan miles, which works out to $116.66 in Google Play cards. You can scale this to an extent, but as a friendly reminder of how strange, weird, and purposefully obtuse this program can be, you’re limited to 22 rewards (2,200 Just4U points) converted to 3,500 MileagePlan miles per week.

The Just4U program workflow, illustrated.

  1. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s fall promotion for 5,000 bonus points per stay through November 20. Unfortunately it seems like you’ve got to book by September 4th though, which is the second most Bonvoy thing Best Western has ever done.
  2. Do this now: Register for Marriott’s fall promotion for 1,500 bonus points per stay through November 22. You’ll also earn 3,000 extra points for each three Marriott brands you stay at over the same period, but that’s clearly just for masochists.
  3. Simon mall in store has $2 off of purchase fees on the Appreciation Series of cards through September 10. These are the best variety of the Simon lot. (Thanks to Derthsidious via MEAB slack)
  4. A little birdie with big hair told me about some churnable Hilton links:

    – Hilton Personal 80,000 Honors points after $1,000 spend in three months (NLL)
    – Hilton Surpass 130,000 Honors points after $2,000 spend in three months (NLL)
    – Hilton Business 130,000 Honors points after $3,000 spend in three months (churnable)

    These typically still fall under the American Express five or six credit card per accountholder limit though.

Happy Wednesday!

Best Western hotels only average a fire about once a month, so that’s a low probability downside for a 5,000 point upside.

  1. Southwest has a new Companion Pass promotion, registration required. To qualify, book a round-trip or two one-way flights by tomorrow night and travel by September 30. After flying, you’ll earn a companion pass valid between January 8 and March 8, 2024. It’s been a while since we’ve shared the obligatory bad news: Your reward for flying Southwest is more Southwest.

    (Thanks to Brian M for breaking the news and for the direct link)
  2. American Express offers has an offer for $300 back on $2,000 or more in airfare at British Airways for flights originating in the US through November 11. Gamable? Yes. (Thanks to FM)
  3. Chase Ultimate Rewards has a 30% transfer bonus to British Airways, Iberia, and Aer Lingus Avios through September 22.

    Now that Qatar is part of the Avios program, this effectively means a 30% transfer bonus there too by transfering through one of the other airlines first. Presumably you’ll be able to do the same in early 2024 with Finnair too. (Thanks to TheGreatCollie)
  4. United is targeting Chase co-brand cardholders for 2,500 bonus MileagePlus miles for adding an authorized user card. As far as I can tell it’s only applicable to personal cards, but it’s easy to check business cards too. You can check to see if you’re targeted here. (Thanks to hic2482w)

The inflight entertainment on your Southwest flight with your companion: Differently sized overhead storage bins.