According to recent airline earnings calls, the demand indicator for domestic, low-cost travel has an indicator light and it’s blinking red. That means (1) there’s opportunity in the stock market, and (2) that we’re going to see airfare and award deals over the next couple of months. In fact, today’s news items are dominated by them:

  1. United has an award sale for flights to Maui booked by this evening for travel between November 12 and December 16. I’m seeing one way fares of approximately 16,000 miles and round-trip fares of 30,000 miles, even on Thanksgiving week.

    Unfortunately first class seats don’t appear to carry any discount, so you’ll fly in the back and you’ll like it (or else).
  2. Turkish Airlines has an award sale for half off of flights to and from Chicago for travel either in the next three days or between January 16, 2024 and March 31, 2024, but again, only in economy. Sorry bourgeoise. (Thanks to FM)
  3. Breeze Airways has 35% off of base fares booked by tomorrow night for travel all the way through September 3, 2024 with a few blackout dates around Thanksgiving and Christmas using promo code BENICE. This discount includes spring break and summer travel 👀.

    As always when a Breeze fare sale comes up, it’s time to highlight another route on the “Breeze Dartboard of city pairs”. Today’s winner is CAK-ORF, or Akron Ohio to Norfolk Virginia.
  4. Southwest has 30% off of base fares to and from Hawaii booked by tomorrow with promo code SAVE30. There are blackout dates around Christmas, President’s Day, MLK Day, and lots of March. (Thanks to David 99)
  5. GiftCards.com has 5% off of $100 Visa gift cards through November 19 using promo code HOLIDAY5 or GIFTVISA5. As usual, go through a portal and don’t forget the current round of portal spending bonuses. A few caveats though:

    – GiftCards.com emailed affiliates that commissions wouldn’t apply when codes were used on the last round, but apparently that email wasn’t sent this round
    – The back-to-school portal bonuses seem to have been delayed and haven’t paid out, whether or not GiftCards.com was involved
    – The maximum per-order discount is $15, so stick to three per order

    You’re all adults though, do what’s best for your situation.
  6. There are a few interesting American Express offers:

    – 50% off of Uber or Uber Eats, up to $25 spend
    – $90 statement credit with $350 spend at Hertz

    As usual, gamers can game. (Thanks to TeddyH)

The official airline demand annunciator panel is currently indicating softening demand for economy travel.

Editor’s note: My mail software was daylight savings naive and thus didn’t update yesterday’s delivery time with the time zone change, probably because it was developed by zonies according to reader Jim. You can access yesterday’s post here.

Chains popular with manufactured spenders often have limits on how many times a card can be used in a given time frame, for example, famously Kroger will usually decline a credit card after six swipes in a rolling 24 hours, chain-wide. That obviously means you’re limited in total manufactured spend at Kroger for a specific card, unless of course you aren’t:

  • Apple Pay looks like a different credit card
  • Many bank issuer’s authorized user cards have a different account number

A little creativity can go a long way.

Of course there is such a thing as being too creative.

  1. Staples has fee-free $200 Mastercards through Saturday, limit eight per transaction. As usual:

    – Don’t forget about the American Express Business Gold monthly $20 office supply credit
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back

    These are Pathward gift cards, and liquidation plays at major retailers often have a throttle of $480 every six minutes.
  2. There’s a new, targeted no-lifetime language American Express Blue Business Plus offer for 75,000 Membership Rewards after $15,000 spend in 12 months. It’s likely that you’ll also be targeted for 99 employee card bonuses after a couple of months too, so you can double dip spend bonuses.

    This is a credit card, and the limit of credit cards per social security number at American Express is either five or six, depending on, I dunno, I guess the color of the shirt you were wearing in your 5th grade glass photo.
  3. Meijer MPerks has $10 off of $150 or more in Visa gift card purchases through Saturday. This version requires that you clip the coupon in your MPerks account, and it can’t be clipped more than once in the same account. I wonder if it’s possible to create multiple MPerks accounts through some sort of internet sorcery? I guess we’ll never know.

    Meijer sells both Pathward and Sunrise gift cards. (Thanks to GCG)
  4. American Express offers has a targeted $100 off of $400 or more at Hyatt properties in Mexico, Costa Rica, and South America through January 31, 2024. Perhaps it’s time to re-read Breaking the Correlation because reasons.
  5. Citi ThankYou Points has a transfer bonus to Accor Hotels through November 30, which makes each ThankYou Point worth approximately 1.6 cents each depending on the USDEUR exchange rate.

    Accor Hotels are typically passed over in the points community, but I’ve had nothing but great experiences with Accor all over Europe.

Happy Monday!

All I can say is say for sure is that purple means six credit card slots and flannel means future Accor elite. I don’t make the rules.

You know how most of you get an extra hour this weekend? Well, there’s plenty to fill it:

  1. Capital One has an interesting bank bonus for a high-yield savings account:

    – $20,000: $300 bonus
    – $50,000: $750 bonus
    – $100,000: $1,500 bonus

    You must fund the account within 15 days, and hold it for 105 days after. The APR is currently 4.30% so the opportunity cost of holding funds is much lower than most recent bank bonuses.
  2. AirFrance and KLM’s FlyingBlue has released discounted promo award cities for travel through April 30, 2024 booked by this month. New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle, Dallas, San Jose, and Raleigh/Durham are this month’s US cities included in the promotion.
  3. The Gift Card Shop has 100% off of purchase fees for custom designed Visa gift cards through November 8 with code CUSTOMHOLIDAY23.

    These are InComm gift cards. (Thanks to SideShowBob233)
  4. MasterCardGiftCard.com has 50% off of purchase fees for orders over $150 through November 16 with code SHOPEARLY2023.

    These are InComm gift cards; is there an echo in here? (Thanks to SideShowBob233)
  5. Citi ThankYou Points has a couple of has transfer bonuses:

    – 25% to Avianca LifeMiles through tomorrow night
    – 30% to Qatar Avios through November 10, posted by Qatar within 45 days

    Both of these programs have sweet spots, google is your friend for some of them.
  6. The major airline shopping portals have new holiday spend bonuses:

    – AA: 4,000 miles with $1,600 in spend through November 17
    – Alaska: 1,500 miles with $650 in spend through November 17
    – Delta 2,000 miles with $1,000 in spend through November 17
    – Southwest: 4,000 points with $1,000 in spend through November 22
    – United: 5,000 miles with $1,200 in spend through November 20

    It’s possible to hit all of these bonuses with giftcards.com assuming that you have a good liquidation channel.
  7. Kroger.com has 5% off of physical Visa and Mastercard gift cards ordered online through November 15 using promo code FALLFRENZY23.

    These are US Bank gifts, the purchase won’t code as grocery, and will earn fuel points. (Thanks to GCG)
  8. Citi has been sending personal and business AA card holders offers for additional bonus miles for making at least one purchase in the next three billing periods:

    – 500 miles for the first statement
    – 1,000 miles for the second statement
    – 1,500 miles for the third statement
    – 2,000 miles in addition to the above for all three statements

    (Thanks to Justmeha and MVC)
  9. American Express has increased its business checking account sign-up bonus to 50,000 Membership Rewards, or $550 with the Schwab Platinum cash out. To be eligible, you’ll need to open an account by December 12 and:

    – Deposit $5,000 within 30 days
    – Maintain at least a $5,000 balance for the following 60 days
    – Make five transactions within the first 60 days

    ACHs and debit card activity both count as qualifying transactions. (Thanks to DoC)

Have a nice daylight savings weekend! (Unless you’re in Arizona, then, well, good luck.)

How daylight savings was invented, except for zonies.

As we’ve discussed in the past, the holidays present a rare opportunity for manufactured spend because:

  • It’s normal to buy lots of gift cards during the holidays
  • Opening new credit lines is passé, perhaps even normal
  • Some cashiers are care-free when you’re wearing a turkey or Santa hat
  • Stores are busy, so cashiers have more to worry about than a gift card at self check out

The holidays also typically mean plenty of gift cards go on sale at relatively steep discounts, hot merchandise commands a huge resale value, and plenty of stock everywhere.

If you’re playing the third party or gift card resale game, you’ll need buyers, naturally. The best rates will come from sourcing buyers directly, but there’s also plenty of value in letting a specialized broker take a cut of your spoils, also known as the Homer garbage man philosophy: “can’t someone else do it?“

So, let’s talk about some generally well respected goods and gift card buyers, in randomized order. Note: I’m not endorsing any of these buyers, but generally speaking I’ve had a good experience with all of them. Please do your own research and make sure you’re comfortable before engaging. Sometimes things go wrong. My general advice applies: Never float more than you can stand to lose if everything goes pear-shaped.

Gift Card Buyers (Gift Card Arbitrage)

Goods Buyers (Retail Arbitrage)

Some of these will also offer opportunities for cashing out Visa and Mastercard gift cards. Keep those eyes open, and good luck!

An example of a smartphone resale deal going pear shaped, leaked from internal Android patent documentation.

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard has new targeted offers for utility spend, once per month for November, December, and January, delivered by both USPS mail and email. We’ve seen:

    – 10% back for $600 or more in spend, up to $700 in spend
    – 10% back for $450 or more in spend, up to $500 in spend
    – 5% back for $500 or more in spend, up to $1,200 in spend

    (Thanks to birt and Dave)
  2. Plastiq is once again accepting American Express cards for payments in certain categories. Fees are currently 2.9% + $0.99-$1.49 which makes it more expensive than average for credit card bill payment services, though not without utility.

    Is Plastiq trustworthy? Well, they’ve effectively exiting bankruptcy and have a person best described by “a kid’s cartoon cowboy transforms into a real person, puts on a suit, and for some reason is always a little sweaty” as a CEO. So, uh, yeah. At least you have chargebacks as a backstop.
  3. Giftcards.com has 5% off of $100 Visa gift cards with promo code SPOOKY5 or SCARY5 through November 6, maximum $15 back per order.

    Normally these range somewhere between a good deal and a great deal when stacked with portal bonuses, however apparently they sent an email to affiliates saying that there’s no payout on orders places utilizing these codes. There’s a small chance that the email is wrong, so if you’ve got a gambling mindset today then you’ve found your mark. (Thanks to GCG)
  4. Do this now: Register for Wyndham’s Q4 promotion for double points on stays of two nights or longer through January 12, 2024. (Thanks to FM)
  5. The Chase Marriott Boundless card has a targeted sign-up bonus for 75,000 Bonvoy points and a $300 Marriott e-gift card after $3,000 spend in three months via the Chase app. The card has a $95 annual fee, and my unpopular opinion is that this is the best version of this card’s sign-up bonus because the $300 card pays for resort-fees and parking on those “free” points or certificate stays.

    My more popular opinion is that you’ll still be Bonvoyed somehow while you’re at a Marriott property.

Happy Wednesday!

Plastiq’s CEO shows up at MEAB’s doorstep later today.

The Main Question

A common manufactured spend and churning question is, “how am I going to spend $15,000 in the next three months to meet my sign-up bonus?” This question is especially prevalent when you’re getting started, and focuses primarily on what methods you can use to meet your target.

At some point, your capacity for manufactured spend may grow substantially with experience. When that happens the question often becomes, “what cards do I have that support $100,000 in spend today, and how can I pay them off tomorrow without fraud locks, ACH kiting, or SAR reports?” When you’re asking this question, you’re no longer focusing on methods to meet spend, but instead on how you can increase throughput and move money and credit lines to meet the demand.

When You’re Operating with Big Numbers

The relevant follow-up questions for someone operating in the latter regime become:

  • How do I cycle money through my accounts without kiting?
  • Which card issuers are going to be upset by this kind of spend?
  • What’s the best return I can get on a workhorse card?

The last question is interesting because it shows a big shift in how churning works. Realistically you can’t hope to get enough new cards with sign-up bonuses in a month to support even a few days of six-figure spend. So, the percentage of your profit from sign-up bonuses becomes small, and to an extent unimportant because the proportion of them that you can earn relative to your spend is negligible.

What’s Your Point, Poindexter?

When offers like 99 bonuses of 15,000 Membership Rewards for $4,000 spend come around, several readers typically ask me why anyone cares. The question usually means that the reader hasn’t developed a huge manufactured spend volume, and that’s ok; not everyone wants or needs to hit that volume to be successful. If they do however attain big volume, then the reason becomes instantly clear: it’s a way to increase your return on large spend that’s repeatable 99 times, or maybe even 99*n times.

Have a nice Tuesday friends!

The MEAB Tuesday morning coffee mug.

The Past

In recent history, American Express had interesting Q4 referral bonuses released in October that stacked with regular year-round referral bonuses:

  • 2020: +3x on all purchases, uncapped
  • 2021: +4x on all purchases on $25,000 in spend
  • 2022: +4x on transit and travel on $20,000 in spend

There’s a definite trend and it’s clearly headed in the wrong direction. Which brings us to now: The current October 2023 Q4 referral bonus is +0x on all spend, uncapped.

That is, American Express seems to have decided it was too generous on the last versions and hasn’t yet released a Q4 promo for referrals, and probably won’t at this point.

The New Hotness

Rather than a referral bonus, American Express’s October 2023 surprise is a new set of offers for adding employee cards by phone to a primary business account. We’ve seen two variants, and both variants have been seen on the Blue Business Plus, the Business Green, the Business Gold, and the Business Platinum:

  • 7,000 Membership Rewards on $4,000 spend in six months per employee card
  • 15,000 Membership Rewards on $4,000 spend in six months per employee card

Each of these is good for up to 99 employee cards, which if maximized turns into 1.485 million Membership Rewards in addition to the base rewards earned for $396,000 in spend.

It’s likely that the Plum card has the offer too, but the Venn diagram intersection of churners and Plum cards is about the same as the Venn diagram of satisfied customers and the Baymont Wyndham in Lubbock: virtually non-existent.

Happy Monday friends!

Say what you will, but at least the Baymont Wyndham offers a choice of room scent.