Air Canada Aeroplan will devalue in June. The churnosphere is largely blaming this on rising oil prices which I think is a contributing factor, but I believe a bigger factor is United exerting pressure on its partners for price parity, one such datapoint is here. The changes:
– Atlantic business redemptions rising 5,000 – 10,000 miles on average – Atlantic first redemptions rising 10,000 miles – Pacific business redemptions rising 2,500 – 10,000 miles on average – Pacific first redemptions rising 10,000 miles
Some of the edge cases have prices going down, and some have higher than 10,000 mile increases too.
Stop & Shop, Giant, and Martins have 10x points on Lowes cards through Thursday. Giant Food stores on the other hand are only earning 6x because the corporate overlords hate Maryland, I can only assume because one of the corporate executives has a shellfish allergy.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Special thanks to John from BABC for putting together this guest post during the holiday season last year, and special jeers to Matt from MEAB that it’s April now.
I am a High School math teacher who not only participates in churning credit cards, bank accounts, gift cards, brokerage accounts, college tuition grants (I received a free master’s degree in education along with a free car back in 2019 from that endeavor), and pretty much anything else. I am also a tour guide of the many Churning Adventures in this fun and profitable game via my YouTube Channel. Every year, I spend an entire year making a single YouTube video where I attempt to document every single bonus I collect from January to December of that year. Usually, there are so many that I forget to document every single one. My annual goal from when I started in this fun and profitable goal back in 2017 is $10,000 from opening up new accounts. This past year, 2024, was my best yet as I made well over 3x that and after thinking about a few bonuses I didn’t include… it was actually, almost 4x that goal!
This post is not to brag. I document the profitable plays with videos 3x a week, so you can also participate if you choose to do so. I don’t pay out the bonuses, and I don’t make up the rules to get the bonuses… as I said, I’m just a tour guide for these Churning Adventures. Some of the manufactured spenders reading this would simply laugh at “rookie numbers,” while others would be impressed… others would travel to the Marriott in Lubbock, TX, just to step on a rake in the lobby and call it just another day, as business as usual.
I wanted to discuss in this post why this is a profitable game? Why are there so many opportunities to more often than not just sit at home on your couch or at a desktop, press a few buttons, and make more money appear in your bank account than actually getting dressed up, fighting traffic, and teaching a full day at a public high school? This process took me about 6 minutes today, from a single bonus to make more in churning than I would in a 10-hour day of being a high school math teacher. (I drive about an hour each way and spend my contract hours of 7 A.M. – 3 P.M. at that place with those people) That’s where the 10-hour figure came from, but I usually stay later as I refuse to take my teaching work home. I am also a member of the FIRE community and do plan on reaching my early retirement in 2-4 years, and just churn full-time and collect weekly dividends from high-yield ETFs… God Willing.
The answer to profitability and why people get paid is a simple one that is sadly not taught in our public schools. I know because at the beginning of each semester in the 13 years that I have been a teacher, I ask my students the simple question, “Why do people get paid?”. Of the thousands of students who have sat in my classroom in 13 years and counting, nobody has managed to answer the correct answer to that question when I first asked it. I shame our public education system by saying to my students, “Wow, from kindergarten to 12th grade… nobody can correctly answer this simple yet profound question that will impact you for the rest of your life, why do people get paid?”
I would get the standard response, “People get paid for working… DUH!” and I would follow up with, “Well, what does work produce? EVERYONE gets paid for the EXACT same reason… they don’t get paid the same amount but for the EXACT same reason,” and then, I get greeted by confusion and silence. I would also hear, “People get paid because they have bills.” Then I would follow up and say, “If I’m looking to hire an accountant for my business, would I ask the applicants, ‘Who has the most bills?” as that would produce the most qualified person… right? If you get paid to pay bills, then the person who has the most debt and bills would be the most qualified. Then my students would say that makes no sense. Then the consensus would be “I don’t know why people get paid”.
I would ask my students which profession makes a lot of money? One student would typically say that doctors make a lot of money. I would ask my class, “Who would just go up to a random doctor and hand them $1,000? Doctors are supposed to make a lot of money, right?” Everyone would just look at me, confused. I would follow this up with, well, what if you had a broken arm? You would gladly hand a doctor $1,000, right? The students would say, “Of course”. I would say, “What is the difference?” Well, the broken arm… What is the broken arm?
The Broken arm is a problem. It’s a big problem. If your car breaks down, who do you call? Someone to fix that problem… If your air conditioner stops blowing cold air, who do you call? Someone to fix that problem. (Interesting fact, Houston, not Lubbock, is the most air-conditioned city in the world) People get paid to solve problems. If you solve little problems, then you will get paid a little money. If you solve bigger problems, then you will make bigger money. That is why people get paid. That is why everyone gets paid… to solve problems. No matter if you are a teacher, a doctor, or a churner. It just so happens that EVERY single problem is a math problem, and that math class is the most important class you can take in your life.
This is how we need to look at life and churning. What problems do the banks have? They need new customers and are willing to pay very nicely to get them… funny enough, it doesn’t matter if you are a new customer or a repeat new customer, you will get paid out the same. Banks also need money to lend out so they can make interest from customers.
The average person who buys a $300,000 home and stays there for 30 years and doesn’t pay anything extra on their mortgage will end up paying about $700,000 for that house… that’s why banks pay pretty much nothing as far as interest goes on checking accounts and demand you keep a certain amount in your account that pays no interest or you get a fee, and banks get their product for free.
Last year, I made over $31,000 by opening up new accounts and solving the problem of needing new customers for banks and credit unions, and brokerages that need new customers and are willing to pay us for it… Join me in solving the fun and profitable problems that only churners and MSers can solve to make this the most profitable 2026!
Different deals look differently, but those involving a credit or debit card usually involve a loop like:
Buy a virtual or physical thing
Earn rewards (probably)
Pay fees (probably)
Liquidate the virtual or physical thing
Earn on sale (rare)
Pay commission or fees (probably)
Use the money to pay your credit card
Earn rewards (rare)
Pay fees (rare)
Your profit is (probably) obvious: Add up all the rewards and sale price, then subtract all the fees or commissions and purchase price. Assuming the deal scales, you’ve probably got a nice play.
But, let’s get to the real point: what’s the limit of how hard you should abuse your card to complete this loop? Wander there with me friends by asking a roundabout question: How much would the issuer need to pay you to close your relationship with them?
For a small credit union, you’d probably severe a relationship ]for a few (tens of?) thousands. For someone who loves staying at Hyatts and routinely books points boost outsized value fares through Chase Travel, you might theoretically need six figures or more to close that relationship. And that brings us to the answer, sort of:
Don’t push a card so hard that you’ll lose it, unless you’re going to make more than the issuer would have to pay you to terminate your relationship.
At least we got there. Have a nice weekend friends!
Helpful tip: This excel formula can also help you answer a question.
– Movingcardholders from Mastercard to Discover (possibly targeted) – Adding 3x categories at grocery stores and gas stations
There’s been a lot of hate about the change, but for a manufactured spender’s perspective this is great because: You’ll have 3x unlimited gas and grocery transferrable miles when paired with another Capital One card, and if you don’t like the Discover transition, you can opt out by May 4th, just as the Star Wars gods foretold.
Churning and manufactured spend is easy when every electronic payment lands, every cashier is cooperative, category multipliers multiply, Toby’s too bogged down with lawsuits to look at you, and none of your accounts meet the almighty axe. Building plays, forming loops, and increasing velocity is child’s play when everything works.
The problem is that in churning and manufactured spend, Gene Kranz’s edict of “failure is not an option” is, uhh, not an option. Something will fail and it’ll probably take multiple phone calls and multiple people to get it fixed, if it’s even fixable. To build longevity in the hobby, have a backup plan for when:
Your bill payments get lost in the ether
A FinTech decides to hold your $200,000 in deposits
A credit union shutdown causes a bounced payment to American Express
Your loyalty points end up in an orphaned account
What does that backup plan look like? It really depends on the failure mode, but at minimum you should have the funds to sustain everything if an account is closed or frozen, you should have more than one account set up for making payments to your credit cards, and you definitely shouldn’t wait for things to fix themselves instead of getting on the phone and straightening things out as soon as you can.
Happy Wednesday!
Backup plans don’t always look the way you think they should.
– AirFrance / KLM: $250 or $400 back on $1,000+ or $2,000+ spend through May 31 – Marriott: $50 or $150 off of $250+ or $500+ spend through August 22 – Hilton: $40 off of $200+ spend through August 15
For the hotel offer, a gift card is an easy game to play. For the airline offer, its not as easy but just like Jurassic Park taught us: gamers uh, find a way.
– Renaissance: 15% back up to $75 on $100+ through April 30 – TownPlace Suites: 15% back up to $57 on $100+ through April 30 – Le Meridian: 15% back up to $57 on $100+ through April 30 – Marriott: 10% back up to $80 on $100+ through May 15
These are usually a lot easier to deal with than American Express Offers.
These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
ANA and Japan Airlines both set their fuel surcharges on the two month rolling average of the cost of Singapore Kerosine, which you might be surprised to learn, is a lot higher than it was a few months ago. As a result, the surcharges for both airlines have approximately doubled. You can find discussion and a few data points here.
Someone please queue the whah-whah trombones for me.
Apparently the Japanese whah-whah trombones also have new fuel surcharges.
– Look for the lower fee Everywhere cards if you know how to liquidate them – Even multiples of $300 work even better – Yes, zero is an even number if you want to be technical, but you’re trying too hard
These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
Wyndham points redemptions are worth somewhere between 0.7 and 1.0 cents per point, so two of them for one Wells Fargo point is a great option. Or if you prefer TPG valuations, two Wyndham points should be worth about the same as a barrel of oil.
Incomm:
– VanillaGift.com: Fee-free Visas with promo code VGMOM26 – MasterCardGiftCard.com: Fee-free Mastercards with promo code MOM26 – TheGiftCardShop.com: Regular price gift cards with promo code YOURMOM26
– Norwegian Cruise Lines: $200 off of $1,000+ through June 30 – Preferred Hotels & Resorts $100 off of $500+ through July 8 – Omni Hotels: $100 off of $500+ through July 13 – Hilton Hotels: $40 off of $200+ through August 15
Some of these are easier to cash out than others, but games exist everywhere.
I never found a direct Spirit Airlines liquidation bet on Kalshi or Polymarket, but I did find this gem which would indirectly let you bet on Spirit liquidation.
Have a nice weekend friends!
This was just foreshadowing service, it had nothing to do with fares 🙈.
