Year: 2024

Introduction

“The squeaky wheel gets the grease” plays a big part in the soft-skills needed to unlock huge velocity in manufactured spend, but it can also blind us. Today, I’d like to offer a corollary:

You tend to forget about the quiet wheels.

– Some lunatic who goes by MEAB. How do you even pronounce that?

The Squeaky Ones

Monday, Tuesday, and yesterday brought waves of PayPal shutdowns in the community, and just about every forum loosely related to manufactured spend is talking about it. We’re seeing shutdowns of:

  • Main accounts with big volume
  • Secondary accounts that share targets with shutdown main accounts
  • Secondary accounts that share names with shutdown main accounts
  • Newly created secondary accounts with even moderate volume

If you were affected, that sucks and I’m sorry. But on the flip side, what use is PayPal in 2024 for things other than manufactured spend anyway? I mean really, literally what use is it? Yes they own Venmo, but a PayPal shutdown doesn’t equal a Venmo shutdown.

The Not Squeaky Ones

There are plenty of users that aren’t shut down with PayPal yet, but that’s hard to see because they’re not jumping up and down in chat rooms and forums saying “I’m not shutdown, what do I do next?” because there’s no urgency. So, we end up hearing from a much larger proportion of squeaky wheels than silent ones.

We could leave it there, but a logical question then becomes:

What are the non-squeaky wheels doing, and what lessons can we learn from them about not being shutdown? There are a lot of answers to that question, and they probably hover around volume, dodging the ban hammer, the types of targets they choose, how often they use those targets, and the volume sent to those targets.

Bonus: Repercussions

One of my P2’s favorite manufactured spend jokes is to call the app that shouldn’t be named the floosie app (she calls all of its users floosies too, naturally). I know nothing about the current financial state of our collective floosie overlords, but I do know that mass PayPal shutdowns kill a popular liquidation channel for its users, and that means that they’re going to see a big drop-off in daily volume and probably daily profit in their ledger. Will it matter? I have no idea, but I’d suggest that now’s a good time to evaluate your risk profile for your floosie shenanigans.

Double Bonus: Brian M Brings us Back to Reality

Brian M, possibly the most cited contributor here, let me know that Southwest is opening its schedule for travel between October 3 and November 2 this morning. Booking early is a statistically better than average way to get the lowest fare possible on popular travel days with Southwest, though of course ymmv.

Next up: What about donut wheels?

Some happy airline news to start:

Balanced by sad airline news:

And completed by a bit of 🤨:

Happy Wednesday friends!

In other airline news, “The Chicago Executive” men’s only flight was literally once a thing at United.

  1. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s promotion for a free night voucher after two nights stayed in the US, Canada, or the Carribean before May 5. The free night voucher is valid through August 25.

    If you haven’t stayed in a Best Western in a a while, you’re really not missing anything, but there’s still a good arbitrage opportunity here. A quick search of Best Westerns in Lubbock shows plenty of $45-$55 nights, and after two of those you’ll earn a certificate that could be used at $500+ a night Best Western Properties in a place where people actually want to visit. Pro-tip: you don’t actually have to sleep in the $45 / night hotel.
  2. Two airline portal shave a promotion for bonus miles after cumulative spend through February 12:

    – AA eShopping has 500 bonus miles after $200 or more in cumulative spend
    – United MileagePlus shopping has 500 bonus miles after $150 or more in cumulative spend

    In totally random news giftcards.com is back on AA eShopping and on MileagePlus Shopping, albeit at 1x as of this writing.
  3. There’s a new, relatively low bonus no-lifetime language (NLL) American Express Business Gold link with 70,000 Membership Rewards after $10,000 in spend.

    Normally this would still be worthwhile thanks to call-in offers for adding up to 99 employees, but those aren’t available on the Business Gold card while they’re updating systems with the increased annual fee. (Thanks to DoC)
  4. The Target RedCard debit card has a $50 sign-up bonus through May 4, which is enough time to churn this at least once. (Lately you’ve got to wait about eight weeks in-between closing and reopening one of these for auto-approval.)

    The double redemption, once online and once in-store, is now dead, but there continues to be no credit impact for churning the debit card.

In other random news, attorneys are still attorneys.

  1. Several new American Express Platinum no-lifetime language (NLL) offers have surfaced, including one for 150,000 Membership Rewards after $6,000 spend in three months.

    Login before checking the above link. If you get an offer not available link, look for another offer on your AmEx dashboard. (Thanks to Creative_Accounting)
  2. FM notes that the American Express Delta cards have better than public landing page offers for at least two cards during a paid dummy booking:

    – Personal Gold: 50,000 SkyMiles and $400 statement credit after $3,000 spend and a single Delta purchase in six months
    – Personal Platinum: 70,000 SkyMiles and $400 statement credit after $4,000 spend and a single Delta purchase in six months

    The regular offer is 70,000 SkyMiles and 90,000 SkyMiles respectively, so you’re effectively selling 20,000 points for 2 cents per point with these offers. I was able to pull up both variants by switching browsers.
  3. FlyingBlue has released its February promo rewards for widespread discounted economy award tickets and limited discounted business class award tickets for several routes to and from Europe:

    – Los Angeles – Paris
    – San Francisco – Paris
    – Austin – Amsterdam

    Effectively, this is AirFrance and KLM’s way of saying “west coast, best coast”, which we all know to be true anyway. Oh, and also Austin I guess.

Happy Monday friends!

The official FlyingBlue February 2024 team shirt.

EDITORS NOTE: In 2024, I’m going to try and have a guest post on Saturdays. Today’s guest post is from prolific miles and points burner and host of the Churn and Burn podcast, James. He’s probably tied in fourth place for the most number of shared Telegram and WhatsApp groups with me too, so you know he’s legit.

Cents per point.  It’s a fallacy that we’ve all fallen victim to.  To feel so desperately that you’re right, only to realize you’ve been led astray.  

All of us have been there: “Well, this is a $1000 restaurant purchase, so obviously, I want to put it on my Amex Gold card for 4x, right?  On paper, it makes sense.  TPG values Membership Rewards at 2 cents per point.  That’s 8% back on every restaurant purchase, right?

If you’re rolling your eyes, you should be.  Even when cashed out via Charles Schwab, it’s a $44 money maker.  Contrast that with throwing the same $1000 spend on a Chase Sapphire Reserve: it’s 3000 points earned, which when transferred to Hyatt, is arguably worth the same in value for many people.

Some of you are probably saying “Wait!  When redeemed via Aeroplan, my Membership Rewards are worth 7 cents per point if I book Lufthansa First Class!”  

There’s two problems with this line of thinking.  1. My guess is that no one currently reading this is going to pay $15,000 for a one way ticket on a seven hour Lufthansa flight.  If you are, I’d seriously consider scheduling a cat scan next week.  And 2. Not everyone wants to fly Lufthansa First Class.  Most of you are already familiar with #1 already, because TRUE cents per point is not based on the actual cash value of the ticket/hotel, but the cash value that you were willing to pay in the first place.  

Think of it this way.  There’s a Hyatt Regency in Jersey City that currently goes for an average of 15,000 Hyatt points per night or $250.  Alternatively, for 40,000 points or $931, you can book the luxurious Park Hyatt New York City.  Some of you are already doing the table math in your heads.  The Regency gives a cool 1.6 CPP valuation.  Meanwhile, the Park Hyatt is a whopping 2.3 CPP.  Easy decision, right?  Of course, not.  Because many people in the game (myself included) would never pay $931 for a night at the Park Hyatt.  Alternatively, I probably would spend $250 a night for the Regency, especially if I was getting free breakfast and Hyatt Globalist benefits on top of that.  In reality, I might be comfortable paying $450 for the Park Hyatt, which amounts to a measly 1.12 CPP value.  Yikers!

We can use the same logic on an Air France fare.  I just booked my father in law on a flight from RDU to CDG for 12,000 Virgin miles + $155 in taxes.  The actual cash price of the fare was $1668.  So, subtracting the taxes from the ticket, the CPP is 12.6 cents per point.  Some might even say that I saved my father in law over $1500.  But I didn’t, because there is no world where he would have paid $1500 for that flight.  “As cheap as humanly possible” were the words he said to me.  Myself?  I’d have ponied up an extra 36,500 points + $127 and splurged for business class.  Of course, I offered up this option to him, and he scoffed at it.  What I saw as a no brainer, he saw as unthinkable.  

The point is: all the blogs and trip reports have us using inflated fat cat valuations for our treasure troves of points. In reality, it’s the price you would pay for the experience you want that matters. Don’t fall victim to the same logic that leads people to list their Pokemon memorabilia on Ebay for the price of their mortgage because they saw an episode of Pawn Stars once where the “expert” told Chumlee that a 1st edition Charizard card was worth $300,000 at auction.

– James

Yes, you earned 4,124 Membership Rewards, but would you really have tipped $1,000 if you didn’t? Don’t answer.

We’re going to go short form, followed by long form, followed by short form today because that’s how the wind is blowing. Let’s just call it the churning burger.

  1. Staples has fee free $200 Visa gift cards starting Sunday and running through the following Saturday, limit eight per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards so have a liquidation plan in place.
  2. American Express’s COO said they’d be refreshing 40 global cards in the next year late last week, and we’ve just seen the first set of updates, all on Delta cards. The changes:

    Personal Gold (annual fee: $150, up from $99)
    – $200 flight credit after $10,000 spend
    – $100 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays

    Personal Platinum (annual fee: $350, up from $250)
    – $10 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $150 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for first class and for international trips

    Personal Reserve (annual fee: $650, up from $550)
    – $20 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for international trips

    Business Gold (annual fee: $150, up from $99)
    – $200 flight credit after $10,000 spend
    – $150 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays

    Business Platinum (annual fee: $350, up from $250)
    – $10 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for first class and for international trips

    Business Reserve (annual fee: $650, up from $550)
    – $20 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for international trips

    The annual fee increase starts on May 1. There’s a path to Delta status just by holding a set of these cards too, the Platinums and Reserves each have a $2,500 MQD “head-start”, and according to the terms and conditions each card type is eligible (up to $10,000 MQD per card holder per year), which means you’ve got a path to Gold status just by holding the right set of credit cards.

    For those keeping track at home, this leaves 36 refreshes left on the AmEx refresh-o-meter, and I think the Resy credits and annual fee increases are a telling sign of what’s to come.
  3. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card, the original MEAB’s Unsung Hero credit card, has a targeted spending bonus for February, March, and April for 15% back on up to $1,200 spend at home improvement stores, once per month. This one arrives either by USPS, email, or both. (Thanks to FlashStash)

Have a nice weekend!

The limited edition churning hamburger gift card; yes, it works on PayPal Bill Pay.

  1. Kroger stores are running a 4x fuel points promotion on third party gift cards and fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards through Tuesday, February 13.

    The resale market for both fuel points and gift cards is traditionally soft in the first couple of months in a new year, and we’ve settled into that funk in 2024 too. I do expect the funk to evaporate in the next month or so, but right now the game will probably involve longer inventory hold times.
  2. Bilt figured out how to effectively get credit card sites to write a feature post about the Bilt card and program at least monthly with their cringe-worthy “rent day” promotions. I do my best to abstain from the chicanery, but sometimes there’s still something genuinely valuable like today’s tiered Aeroplan transfer bonus:

    – Blue: 75% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 1,750 miles)
    – Silver: 100% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,000 miles)
    – Gold: 125% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,250 miles)
    – Platinum: 150% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,500 miles)

    Aeroplan is one of the best transfer programs for Star Alliance awards because it they’ve got good technology and low-friction booking, though they still have cancelation fees on their lowest awards and their prices are occasionally more expensive than other Star Alliance programs. I’ll be transferring most of my Bilt points to Aeroplan, but don’t do something just because I’m doing it.
  3. The Barclays Hawaiian Airlines Business card has a heightened sign-up bonus, and the $99 annual fee is not waived for the first year:

    – 60,000 miles after $2,000 spend in 90 days
    – 10,000 miles for adding an employee card and making a purchase in 90 days

    This card has plenty of other features, but frankly probably none of them are worth using or holding past year one. (Thanks to C-MontgomeryChurns)
  4. Today may be the last day for adding employee cards with spending bonuses online to several American Express cards; they were set expire on February 2 according to the terms and conditions but one of them has already died:

    – Business Platinum: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five
    – Business Gold: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five
    – Blue Business Plus: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five

    Hopefully new offers replace these, but you know what they say about hopes. Also, could you tell me what they say about hopes? Because I don’t actually know. Anyway, if you have spend capacity to meet these bonuses I’d order the cards right now.

If the gift card and resale market in January and February were a food, it’d be week old ketchup on ramen.

  1. Today is the last day that the American Express Business Gold card has a $295 annual fee. If you’ve been slacking on a product change or a new application and that slacking extends past tonight, it’ll cost you an extra $80. A few notes:

    – If you’re going to apply head on, don’t forget that you can probably get a much better offer by trying several browsers and connecting to a Dallas VPN
    – If you can’t find a better offer through a VPN, at least use a referral link
    – If you triple dipped Business Platinum cards in December 2022, a downgrade might be a better option than closing the card given the current lack of no-lifetime language (NLL) links
    – American Express’s calendar day ends before midnight Eastern, but after midnight UTC, because reasons

    The Business Gold card also has an unadvertised spending bonus (of sort) via phone in employee offers or via online employee offers, and now has $240 in annual office supply credits.
  2. Southwest has 50% off of flights to and from Denver or Colorado Springs booked by tomorrow night with promo code SAVENOW for travel between February 20 and May 22.

    As is typical with targeted promo codes and Southwest, there are a bunch of excluded days and routes, most of which correspond to the days that normies working with school schedules want to travel.
  3. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s Q1 promo for 5,000 bonus points per stay for up to 10 stays through May 5.

    Look, I’m not planning on staying in a Best Western either, but sometimes it’s the best option and in case that happens the promo will already be attached to your account.

Have a nice Wednesday!

You shouldn’t could combine the second and third items at the Best Western Movie Manor (pictured).