Month: February 2024

EDITOR’S NOTE: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

One of the most consistently inconsistent methods in manufactured spend is earning sign-up bonuses by paying yourself as an OnlyFans model bulk gift card resale, roughly because the basic version involves selling to third parties that ultimately use the card and that makes you beholden to their whims. Their whims are really more about demand though, and that demand is cyclical for slightly different reasons:

Gift Cards

The bulk gift card resale market for cards like BestBuy, Apple, Target generally varies by quarter:

  • Q1: Starts out depressed, but rates and demand increase slowly, especially around holidays
  • Q2: Rates hold steady, demand is lumpy but persistent
  • Q3: Rates increase slightly, demand gets more-or-less steady
  • Q4: Rates reach local maxima, demand is typically the biggest for the year

Grocery Loyalty Points

The profitability of bulk gift card resale markets for manufactured spenders centers around grocery loyalty points, which make up the difference between cost and resale rate for most bulk brands. If you’re cashing those out by selling to a third party, demand looks like:

  • Q1, Q2: Lumpy
  • Q3: Strong
  • Q4: Starts strong, ends weak

The main reason for the difference in loyalty points demand is that they’re often redeemed for discounted fuel by industry and agriculture that sees peak use in Q3.

Smoothing Out Demand

How do you make demand relatively consistent? I’m going to offer two primary ways:

First, it’s easy on paper but relatively hard in practice: Be the end-user. That means do what the end-users do, which is:

  • Buy goods on sale and sell them at Amazon, ebay, craigslist, or internationally
  • Buy Apple products and sell them internationally in places like Brazil
  • Use loyalty points to buy things like Airpods and sell them
  • Use loyalty points for discount gas, either for yourself or as a fueling service

I’ve dabbled in every single one of these, and while they were all successful to an extent (and in one case wildly successful), they’re all a ton of work to scale. Ultimately, I wasn’t fulfilled by any of it and I didn’t enjoy it in the way that I enjoy manufactured spend, so I don’t do those things any more.

That brings us to the second method of smoothing demand, acting as a gift card reserve banker and holding your cards until demand is high, then unleashing fury on the market whenever buyers return.

Finally, let’s talk a bonus method for smoothing out demand Paying yourself as an OnlyFans model which is really a cheater method: Shift the demand elsewhere. For me, that means I’m focusing on other manufactured spend techniques when demand in bulk card resale isn’t solid. There’s plenty of other opportunity out there.

Happy Tuesday!

A different kind of OnlyFans play, courtesy of SideShowBob233.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

  1. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 or more in Visa gift cards through Saturday, and this one has a limit of 10. As usual:

    – Link your credit cards to Dosh
    – Try for multiple transactions, back-to-back
    – Try for scale in a single transaction, it usually works out
    – Don’t forget about your monthly American Express Business Gold credits

    These are Pathward gift cards which often have a $480 per five minute transaction limit for liquidation at popular in-person liquidation spots.
  2. Citi ThankYou Points has a 30% transfer bonus to Virgin Atlantic through March 16. These miles are generally best used on Delta or ANA metal.
  3. The new American Express Delta card Resy credits turn out to be relatively easy to game in most big cities: buying anything at a restaurant listed on Resy whether or not your make a reservation, including gift cards, will trigger the monthly credit according to dozens of data points.

    More good news too: Some hotels eligible for Delta Stays credits now offer sanitized rooms!

Happy Monday!

It’s technically even possible to find a hotel that’s completely covered by the Delta Stay credit and includes a sanitized room.

EDITORS NOTE: In 2024, I’ve introduced Guest Post Saturdays. Today’s guest post is from the witty, inspiring, and definitely-not-a-giga-chad irieriley.

If you’re like me, you likely didn’t set out in this hobby thinking you’d end up where you did. I was a backpacker when I started back in 2016, dreaming of free economy flights and upgrading from hostels to Hyatt Houses.

I did not think it would lead to hours spent probing fintechs, the rise and fall of the world’s greatest bodybuilding supplement company, and using developer tools to identify offer codes and account masking patterns.

Of course, there’s a lot of steps and shifts in perspective between seeing a TPG ad on TSA bins at LaGuardia and not giving a second thought to 99x Amex AU offers.

MEAB‘s wisdom posts contain a lot of thought provoking questions, but my all time favorite post is this one – concerning perception of dollar value, scaling your spending, and how things change as you go deeper down the rabbit hole. 

To build on Matt’s original premise, I’d posit that the same perception shift occurs with redemption. For the sake of discussion, let’s look at the value of 150k Amex MRs – a sign-up bonus that anyone with a pulse can earn with a personal Platinum card.

  • Non redeemer: What are transferable points? I’m just a giga-Chad cashing out my points for Home Depot gift cards.
  • Beginning redeemer: Wow, $6k of spend in 3 months is a lot. But 150k points transferred to Delta Skymiles must be enough to get to the moon  roundtrip to Europe in business class apparently, a one way basic economy award to Lubbock.
  • Intermediate redeemer: Look at those fools wasting their points on gift cards and transfers to domestic carriers – I got 30cpp by transferring to ANA and booking last minute one way J flights to Japan. 
  • Advanced redeemer: Things have come full circle – I have so many points that I will never be able to redeem them all for travel. I’ll book my travel a year out, and I’ll cash out the rest. 150k MRs = $1,650 with a Schwab Plat or ~$1,950 depending on my bargaining skills.

Pictured: A local business owner/giga-Chad on his way to Home Depot to convert the spoils of $7m of Amex spending into a patio furniture set.

Depending on your situation, each viewpoint can make sense. However, I’d imagine most MEAB readers fall into the final segment. 

And in a community that is largely a perfectly aligned Venn diagram with other optimizer communities like FIRE, cash is king, especially when you hit the inflection point where your ability to earn wildly outpaces your ability to burn. 

I was talking to my P2 (and fellow Waldorf Pedregal enthusiast) about how poorly I had strategized earning and redeeming early on, and she provided some much needed perspective on the whole thing when actually looking back at those first redemptions.

Some of our first cards and subsequent redemptions:

  • Citi AA Platinum pre-derAAilment – SUB used to fly AA Y to Europe, where we attended music festivals and yacht cruised as backpackers
  • Chase Southwest chasing Companion Pass – used to book Y flights to the Caribbean, where we got engaged
  • Capital One Venture – I hit the SUB on the engagement ring, and used the cashback to erase the insane VS surcharges on our first J redemption for our honeymoon

Pictured: Mr. and Mrs. irieriley in 2017 enjoying the spoils of their very first award redemption

While the strategy was akin to SideShowBob233 stepping on a rake over and over again, those first few forays into earning and burning provided more to enrich P2 and I’s lives than another $2,000 into VTI ever will. 

I think it’s ok to occasionally zoom out of doing finger math to avoid looking like a kiter or mourning your Paypal burner to remember why you started this hobby in the first place, and it’s very unlikely that you started because you wanted what sometimes feels like a second job. Instead, you wanted a way to take a trip for free, or some extra cash for bills. 

Pictured: MSers determining whether they’re clear to pull back into their hub account

If there’s anything the last 4 years have taught us, it’s that life is short. This is a friendly reminder that points can be used for something besides booking T-355 Qsuites, cashing out or selling – they’re also a tool for engineering unique experiences for you, your friends, and your family. 

Personally, I’m blowing the Chase Sapphire Reserve grocery cash out equivalent of $1,700 of URs to spend 3 nights at a Hyatt SLH 20 miles from my home. A year ago, that would have really pained me. It still does, a bit. But hey, the Hamptons in summer is otherwise too rich for my blood – may as well enjoy it before this particular hotel joins Hilton and becomes 95k 120k 150k HH/nt. And we’re definitely not going because P2 wants to be in the background of Summer House.

And yes, even for those who don’t travel and are firmly #teamcashback. Don’t forget to use your proceeds to treat yourself or a loved one every once in a while. Even if it’s just a boba during a money order run. 

– irieriley

Pictured: In keeping with the Simpsons motif, a fitting desk decoration for a MSer deep in the weeds of earning looking for some perspective

EDITOR’S NOTE: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

  1. Chase is sending targeted offers on its personal Southwest cards for 3x points at gas, grocery, and dining through the end of 2024, and bonus points count for companion pass but not toward other status levels.

    What does Southwest have to do with gas, grocery, and dining you ask? Well, they’re probably the worlds biggest supplier of pretzel snack-mix bags, and the snack-mix bag cabal knows how to pull strings, trust me. (Thanks to Lava121)
  2. We’re not yet at the point that the Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card moves from Unsung Hero to just Hero, but we’re approaching it. In addition to holding a card with greater notoriety, holders also saw a new round of targeted offers for online spend through March 14:

    – 200,000 Shop Your Way Rewards points after $750 or more in spend (MS Ninja)
    – 250,000 Shop Your Way Rewards points after $1,000 or more in spend (Jacob)
    – $50 statement credit after $750 or more in spend (David 99)

    Yes, these offers stack with the 2024 monthly statement credits for grocery, gas, and dining provided of course that you spend in those categories online. What does Citi have to do with gas, grocery, and dining you ask? They’re a credit card issuer and they want to attract spend on their cards, duh.
  3. The Marriott Bonvoy Business card has a best offer sign-up bonus of five free night certificates for up to 50,000 points per night each after $8,000 spend in three months. [insert joke here about overpriced Marriott hotels in Lubbock]

    I’m not linking to anything on this one because I hope that you can find someone to give you a referral, so they’ll earn points on your successful application too. Using a referral is a great networking icebreaker in the miles and points community for those of you looking to expand your network. (Thanks to DoC)
  4. Having a stable of burner phones and phone numbers is eminently useful, and DDG highlights a great, low cost option for adding a new device to your portfolio: A Moto G Stylus 5G plus a month of service for $40. Make sure you activate the phone, and I’d suggest only leaving it active for the first month then moving to a cheaper service. It’ll unlock automatically in 180 days.

Have a nice weekend!

The leader of the the pretzel snack-bag mix cabal.

EDITOR’S NOTE [1]: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

EDITOR’S NOTE [2]: Yes, it’s another DaVinci Code post, sorry not sorry I guess. Stay tuned for a future site rebranding: Miles Earn and Burn, Confusing Beginners Since 2020™.

If you run around any private groups, quasi-private groups, or even reddit.com/r/churning, you probably know that PayPal Bill Pay massacred its targets yesterday. This could matter because:

  • We don’t know how much the app that rhymes with booze was relying on this volume for its ongoing cash-flow, revenue, and profitability. We do know that there was a staggering amount of volume pushed through this channel though, and most of it dried up in a flash. Is this an issue? I have no idea, but it’s another good time to re-evaluate your risk assessment and tolerance with the platform.
  • Anything that still works on PayPal Bill Pay will probably see a huge increase in volume as players shift toward what works, ultimately causing those things to die more quickly too (probably).
  • We’re likely entering a new era of discovery in manufactured spend, so research and networking is likely to be more fruitful for the next month or two than normal while we search for the next big thing.

If you have no idea what I’m talking about, this still matters to you because this is a great opportunity to read between the lines and learn about what’s worked in the past; the object lessons here are lucrative and that knowledge will almost certainly help you in the future.

Happy Thursday!

Work in progress: The app that rhymes with booze’s logo, but in ripples.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

Perhaps the most basic level of credit card churning involves getting a new credit card with a sign-up bonus every time you hit the spend requirements on the last one, putting you into a state of perpetual 10%, 25%, or even 50% return on your spend. This is great until:

  • You’ve gotten all the cards you can reasonably get
  • Your monthly spend exceeds 3 to 4 times the average sign-up bonus minimum spend

When you hit the above, sign-up bonuses are interesting but they’re a small blip on a profit or return chart. As you spend even more, the percentage of your profits that consist of sign-up bonuses gets proportionally smaller.

To illustrate, let’s assume that you signed up for the recent 200,000 Membership Rewards bonus American Express Business Platinum card with $15,000 in spend, and all of your spend after that goes on a 2.625% cash back everywhere card, and we’ll look at how much of the money you earn comes from the bonus. For simplicity, we’ll assume American Express points are worth 1.1 cents because that’s a generally available cash out price.

Monthly Spend
(USD)		AmEx Bonus
(1.1 cents per point)		Other Card’s Rebate
(2.625% back)
$15,000Bonus: $2,200 (14.6%)
Regular: $165 (1.1%)		Regular: $0 (0%)
$100,000Bonus: $2,200 (2.2%)
Regular: $165 (0.165%)		Regular: $2.231 (2.23%)
$500,000Bonus: $2,200 (0.44%)
Regular: $165 (0.03%)		Regular: $12,731 (2.57%)
$5,000,000Bonus: $2,200 (0.04%)
Regular $165 (0.003%)		Regular: $130,856 (2.62%)
Dollar (Percentage) return on various levels of spend

Put succinctly, that sign-up bonus is nice, but after you hit $5M in monthly spend, even the large American Express Business Platinum bonus makes up a very small portion of overall return on monthly spend at just 0.043%; meanwhile one of our favorite Unsung Hero cards returns 2.62%, or more than 98% of the total rebate on your spend.

The takeaway? As you advance your manufactured spend career, worry a little less about those sign-up bonuses.

Have a nice Wednesday!

Next up on Wednesday Interlude with MEAB: Does the second law of thermodynamics apply to spend?

  1. Rakuten in-store offers has a card linked offer for 1% cash back or 1x Membership Rewards at several grocery chains:

    – Stop & Shop stores
    – Food Lion stores

    You’ve got to re-add the offer to your account an hour after each use to keep earning. No end date is specified, but the offer sticks around for 75 days after it’s added to your account.
  2. Do this now (if you hold a United credit card): Check for targeted spending bonuses for the months of miles promotion. (Thanks to hic2482w)
  3. The American Express Business Platinum has a local maxima 200,000 Membership Rewards targeted bonus now after $15,000 in spend in three months, up from the previous recent high of 190,000 Membership Rewards. As usual with American Express, you may need to try lots of things to see it:

    – Try mobile and desktop web browsers
    – Try connecting to VPNs in various regions of the country, like Texas, Colorado, and SoCal
    – Try pulling up applications after applying through search engines like Bing, Google, and Yandex
    – Try different web browsers, especially FireFox and Safari

  4. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 or more in Mastercard gift card purchases in-store through Saturday. Usually buying these in multiples during a single transaction offers a better overall discount too.

    These are Pathward gift cards which often have velocity limits in popular in-person liquidation channels, so have a plan in place before you go ham, (or even ham salad).

Going ham salad is as gross as you’d think it would be.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The feedback I’ve gotten for guest post Saturday has been resoundingly positive. I’ve got a few posts left to publish, but I’m running low. If you’re interested in a guest post, please reach out!

Airlines and hotels universally have at least two main interfaces; banks also have both, FinTechs usually do, and well, you get the idea. The interfaces:

  • Mobile app
  • Desktop website

For reasons known only to Chuck Norris and Taylor Swift, many software development shops choose to use a different back-end implementation for each. Because the implementations are functionally different, things often don’t quite behave the same between the two. This is especially true around edge conditions. A few concrete examples:

  • Some Turkish award flights only ticket with the mobile app
  • Some banks only accept money order deposits via the mobile app
  • Same day change on Delta behaves differently on mobile than desktop

That’s just scratching the surface. So, for today let’s change “always be probing” to “always be probing, double style”.

Happy Monday!

Always be probing, double style.