$10/$15/$35 monthly Uber credits (personal Golds and Platinums)
The calculus for me on the on an annual fee’s effective credit offset involves a discount factor representing what the credit is actually worth based on whether I can resell something, whether I’d actually spend that money either way, and how much work I have to put in to liquidate the credit. It also involves the credit face value, and considerations like a double or triple dip.
Let’s walk through a concrete example with the Business Platinum card, assuming we opened it in late November or early December. For a single year’s annual fee, the main credits are:
Combining the two and reading the between the lines, I think it’s safe to say that the likelihood of Dell, Adobe, and Indeed going away in 2025 is at least 2/3. Updating the above math for a triple dip in December 2024 to subtract 2/3 of the Dell credits in 2025 and beyond (given that it’s likely going away) gives a net annual fee of -$695 + $200 + $400 * (1/3) + $480 = +$118. So, the value from those credits with today’s lens has fallen, though remains positive.
Predictions
Yogi Berra famously said “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” He’s right, and I think my crystal ball is at least as opaque as average so, yeah. Nonetheless, I’m going to predict with broad strokes based on the previous news items:
Credits that don’t have an analog on other premium credit cards from Chase, Capital One, Bank of America, Citi, or US Bank are going to get the axe for 2025
Credits that are almost certainly paid for by a retailer that don’t lead to additional purchases will be refreshed away, like Saks, for 2025
Credits that bring new incremental revenue to a retailer will stick around, like Uber and Equinox
We’re going to see more monthly or quarterly credits, and fewer annual or semi-annual credits
Will the cards still be worth it? It depends on what kind of AmEx user you are: If the annual credits represent a significant source of value for premium cards, you’re in a tougher spot. If they don’t because you’re taking advantage of category bonuses, employee cards, offers, and other games, then it’s annoying but not a game changer.
Good luck!
2025’s refreshed American Express Green card monthly coupon credit.
One of the tenets of common sense that transcends travel hacking, miles and points, and churning is “if something seems too good to be true, it probably is“. To an untrained eye, it’s good advice and will probably keep you out of a tight spot.
If however you’re skilled in a particular field, the general advice can fall flat on its face and hold you back. In travel hacking and churning, there are currently and there have been plenty of examples that you’d miss out on if you thought they were too good to be true, like:
So, don’t let the idea of too good to be true prevent you from running a few tests when you’re a subject matter expert, instead, protect yourself and always be probing. Also, try not to visibly wince like I do when someone says “if a deal is too good to be true, it probably is”, it’s bad form.
Frat boy Chad said that Flamin’ Hot Cheeto cheeseburgers were too good to be true, and this, err, exists.
EDITORS NOTE: In 2024, I’m going to try and have a guest post on Saturdays. Today’s guest post is from the always helpful and funny SideShowBob233, who can apparently be reached at SideShowBob233.com.
The Amex financial review team (henceforth referred to as the FR team because I am lazy but you knew that already because of the private investigator you hired to follow me) is one of the most feared teams at everyone’s favorite points and miles cash cows, probably more than the RAT team since the FR can actually shut you down (I’m not clear if the RAT team gets involved in shutdowns although it’s possible they do for blatant abuse such as obviously paying Amex with Amex).
Generally, to get noticed by the FR team (and their Top Notch Never WrongTM algorithms – note I trademarked that because how gullible are you anyway) the easiest way is to spend a lot of money (more than you usually spend) and not pay right away. The TNNW algorithm flags you as a bust-out risk and sends your name, phone, card portfolio, and stool sample to the FR team for the preferential – bordering on gentle – possibly even lover-like treatment only they can provide (sue me Marvel).
Once the FR team gets involved, they will generally suspend all your cards (block new charges on them) and call you, causing you to need to change your underwear – please tell me you wear it – actually don’t tell me I don’t want to know). They sometimes will want bank statements, sometimes tax transcripts, occasionally a urine sample but in most cases despite scaring the life out of you the result is not the worst case (shutdown or card closure). Generally, the worst-case outcome is limits on your cards – barring any major lies on your part like a declared income of $1M and you are making minimum wage working at McDonald’s AND eating their food 3 times a day while wearing the Grimace costume and ONLY the Grimace costume.
This is generally common knowledge SideShowBob233 you say (once again you say the 233 out loud as only you can, which is different than how everyone else says it because face it, you’re weird) so why are you wasting our time with this besides shamelessly stealing quotes from Deadpool?
The reason is there is a different kind of FR which has been showing up more frequently of late and I want to warn you about it. Also because sometimes I tuck my knees into my chest and lean forward, that’s just how I roll.
This new type of FR can be triggered the same way as I boringly detailed above (this is your cue to go back and re-read and actually pay attention this time) but sometimes it can be triggered by a returned payment or possibly by linking a new payment account to Amex. In this new type of FR they are concerned about the ownership of the account(s) you are paying them with. This is a variation on the fear you can’t pay them as payments from an account you don’t own could be fraudulent and eventually returned. They will ask you for proof of ownership of the accounts you’ve been paying them with. If you cannot provide the requested proof, they will close your cards (they want actual PDF statements from the bank). If you can provide the documentation but your name is not on the accounts there are several outcomes – one is they will ask you for a third party authorization form filled out by the account owner, sometimes they will let you add a new account in your name and pay from it then provide a statement, but sometimes you get a jerk and (s)he says no to all of that and you have to provide a statement on an account (from the past) with that name on it.
So you’re all saying to yourselves thanks SideShowBob233 (this time you skipped saying the 233 out loud because my laziness is contagious) you’ve scared me a little, but what can I do? The answer is always have at least one account in the cardholder’s name linked to at least one card. Ideally every cardholder should be paid from an account they are an authorized signer on to avoid any issues. Is there a guarantee they will find you? No, nothing in life is guaranteed except death, taxes, and rakes. But why mess around with the potential to get the FR team involved.
Finally, I know you’re thinking “I’m not lazy like you SideShowBob233 so I am going to use my photoshop skills and give Amex a fake bank statement and go on my way” but let me overcome my innate laziness and explain why that is a terrible idea. First, that is basically financial fraud, and unless you’re a billionaire you can go to jail doing things like that. Churning has a lot of gray lines and I’d like to stay on the safer side of that one.
Second, there are systems like ChexSystems and EWS (see my other post) that track ownership (ever wonder why some banks can instantly verify account ownership?) and if Amex sees a document saying SideShowMel is an owner but pulls a Chex report or EWS and sees the account is actually owned by SideShowBob233, they are not stupid and will not take kindly to being lied to (plus they will obviously know it’s a lie and won’t accept that doctored statement/artwork as proof). And to be honest when they are asking you for proof they generally already know the answer in most cases – but it’s possible Chex/EWS is wrong so they are asking you to verify, but don’t FAFO with the FR team.
As a final sendoff here’s an animation of me setting up all my family members to make sure they pay their cards from accounts in their name to avoid this risk in the future:
As a final, final sendoff, here’s me on vacation because you didn’t really want to keep your breakfast down anyway:
It’s probably already familiar to seasoned churners that sometimes you’ll get a better offer for an airline credit card when you’re making a dummy booking or when you’re applying for a card from an in-flight application. What’s probably less obvious is that sometimes your account or credit profile will be impacted differently based on how you apply too. Specifically:
With Comenity co-branded cards, if you add a dummy item or two to your shopping cart and then apply for the card during check-out, they’ll almost never perform a hard-pull of your credit report.
Of course if you have bad credit or no credit, this is an enticing proposition. For most of you reading the blog, at face value there’s not much there other than as a mental insight into bank processes.
The Lesson
The public facing side of credit cards, like lifetime language, sign-up bonus terms, and which card has the worst design, aren’t the only aspects of a card and its impact on your finances. Instead, credit reporting, unregulated debit payments, and pseudo-loan like products play a role in the immediate enduring value of a card too. Always be probing!
Happy Monday!
Pictured: SideShowBob233 attempts the Fluz shopping cart trick.
EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m on an annual blogging vacation for the last two weeks of the year. To make sure you still have content, some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts in my absence. Special thanks to today’s author, the always helpful and funny SideShowBob233, for writing this post while I’m on vacation. I’ll see you on January 1!
It seems like these days everyone hates on Uber, from drivers who Uber screws out of wages, to people who are sexually assaulted by Uber, drivers who failed their background check but are somehow working with Uber anyway, to people like me, who find themselves shadow-banned from Uber for an unknown reason and have their loaded gift card balances locked in Uber-purgatory™ while Uber support tells you there’s nothing wrong with your account and you should continue using it.
Since I’m a selfish type of guy (hands off my rake!) I’m going to focus on the last one of those reasons to hate Uber. Sometime in October I found myself unable to place orders on Uber. Thinking it was a glitch, I reached out to their support. Uber support is very responsive, kind of like a car with an almost dead battery. You turn the key, it makes lots noises, but in the end you’re still screwed.
I went back and forth with Uber support as they “investigated” (if you can call ignoring my support ticket while they approved serial killers as drivers as investigating) and told me it was escalated to a higher team. What I thought (and was proved right) is that the “higher team” is a description of the team. They literally smoke weed all day and do nothing else. So my case is still sitting with that team while they drive around in the Magic Mystery Machine eating Scooby snacks and I am still unable to use my Uber account (likely forever).
I’m still not clear WTF caused my ban, but there are several possibilities. One, I added a bunch of promo codes to Postmates (also owned by Uber) about a week before my ban. However, by itself I don’t think that was the issue – but rather it was coupled with a cancelled order a few weeks earlier. I ordered food on Uber eats, and about 2 minutes before it was due to be delivered, I was notified the order was cancelled by Uber support. I reached out to their support to ask about it, and they told me I cancelled it. I explained I absolutely did not cancel it and they said they’d give me a credit for the order (I actually just wanted the damn food not a credit, but I settled for a credit). I think this put me on a suspected abuser list (when my best guess is their terrible customer service cancelled my order by mistake trying to cancel a different order) and then when I added some promo codes that sealed my fate. But I’m just guessing, because their support is so bad they can’t even tell me if I’m banned. Uber gonna Uber.
While I know people normally want to be like me (as shown here):
In this case you actually don’t want to be like me, here are some tips to avoid my rake fate:
Do not use the same Uber account on multiple devices
Do not add more than one new credit card to your account every 3 days (72 rolling hours)
Do not go nuts adding promo codes (this usually will only lead to a promo code ban)
Do not have your order accidentally cancelled by Uber support (let me know if you figure out how to do this)
Do not complain after Uber cancels your order and leaves you hungry
Do not pass go, do not collect $200 (now I’m just seeing if you’re still here – shouldn’t you be out probing or something?)
I’ll end my rant here, but let me just say I will dance on their grave when Uber goes bankrupt, leaving us with memories of the Amex Uber credits and leaving Amex with a different coupon they will need to come up with.
– SideShowBob233
Pictured: What SideShowBob233 is missing by not having Uber Eats.
EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m on an annual blogging vacation for the last two weeks of the year. To make sure you still have content, some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts in my absence. Special thanks to today’s author, the consummate churner TeddyH, for writing this post while I’m on vacation. I’ll see you on January 1!
2024 is rapidly approaching, and while that may be disappointing news for some of you who have been getting fat from all the Q4 offers, for many of you it may mean some good news: a new Player may be turning 18.
Of course, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows: churning while new to credit is like trying to take public transit in Lubbock, TX (aptly called the Citibus!)
I moved to the U.S. when I was 12 with no other family members, so when I turned 18, I had to start my credit from scratch. When I first got my SSN, I was declined for even the most basic credit cards. But while I was trying to figure out what cards I could get approved for, I ended up discovering churning. With the right moves, even I was eligible for high sign-up bonus (SUB) offers from elite credit cards after just a couple of months of credit history.
In this post, I will try to break down a guide to churn while new to credit based on my personal datapoints (DPs) as an immigrant as well as my other players.
1. First Day: Preparations
While it is possible to get into this game without a Social Security number, your options will be VERY limited. If you cannot get an SSN, try for an ITIN, which can be obtained by gambling.
2. First Month: Your First Card
While many people believe that the Chase Freedom Rise or the Discover It are great first cards to begin with, I invite you to think bigger: the personal Amex charge cards. Here are some almost concerning DPs:
P1 getting approved for an Amex Personal Gold with 2 months of credit history – no FICO score!
P2 getting approved for an Amex Personal Platinum WITHOUT a Social Security Number – will talk more about this later
P3 getting approved for an Amex Personal Gold on a 3-day-old SSN with nothing but an Amex AU
At this point, I don’t even think Amex bothers checking for a pulse when approving credit lines for their charge card products. Amex will, however, expect to see a valid credit report when they perform a hard pull, so your new player must have something on their credit file. An Authorized User card, especially an Amex AU, is a great solution without sacrificing their 5/24 slot.
If you are first-generation and don’t have someone who can add you as an AU, go for the Discover It rather than the Freedom Rise. My rationale as to why:
10% rotating categories up to $1,500 and a $100 SUB is better than even the most 7-ft-man-with-an-affiliate-link-inflated valuation of Ultimate Reward points
Your oldest account remains safe even in the case of a Chase shutdown as your Discover is likely to have less than $500 in shenanigans per month
You can request a credit line increase every single day, online, with no harm. This will help with later Chase apps as banks like to beat other banks’ credit lines.
If you start with a Discover, wait until your second statement cuts before trying Amex to ensure Discover posts to your credit report. Then move to step 3/4.
3. 3 Months In: Patience is Key
By now you’ve probably finished your Amex Gold SUB and your hands might be itchy for some more apps. But there is a crucial Amex velocity limit you should be aware of when you are new to credit: 1 card before 6 months of credit history.
AmEx will grant you one credit line before you have a FICO score, but won’t approve you for any more without proof of income until you actually receive a FICO score (6 months of history).
This 4506-C form to prove your income through your tax returns is a huge PITA and you probably don’t have good enough income to show them if you are new to credit (as you’ll need a tax return to show for it) so I would wait until you are 7 months in for your second AmEx.
4. 4-6 Months In: Stepping into Chase Territory
Many points-and-miles bloggers point out how conservative Chase is at approving cards to those with a thinner credit file. While this is true, there is one simple trick that the Chinese churning community found that breezes past the Chase applications. Before I tell you though, I need to wait for SideshowBob233 to walk into the rake I placed.
Okay, now that he is unconscious for a bit, let me quickly tell you the simple trick: open a Chase deposit account and deposit $10,000 to $30,000 into it. It only takes 2-3 business days for the credit card side of their systems to catch on to the fact that you have a large deposit account, which in turn allows you to breeze through the application process. DPs are showing that your initial credit line on the Freedom products will usually be under $3k, so I wouldn’t try for a Sapphire here. I personally put $30k in an account and got a $3k line for the Chase Freedom Unlimited with 5 months of credit history (still without FICO!). If I were to do it all over again I would have waited a month and jumped to the Chase Sapphire Preferred, as 6 months of history will give you a FICO score.
You can withdraw the funds immediately after card approval, and close the account shortly after, or within 12 months if you also hit the bank bonus with it. Whatever you do, listen to Sideshow and don’t pull shenanigans while you have a deposit account with them. I have just been maxing out my credit line at CVS without cycling, and then paying it down quickly.
5. 8-9 Months: “I’m not a businessman, I’m a business, man”
By now you should have a FICO score and be past the Amex pre-FICO velocity limit. From here you can start applying for AmEx business cards. If they ask for income verification or deny you, don’t worry, just apply again next week. While you may think that this non-stop application and denial may seem concerning to AmEx, people who cancel applications because of Pop Up Jail do the same thing so they are used to this. Eventually, you will see an approval, either instant or through a simple identity verification. In my case, they wanted my social security card and they approved me even though my card said “valid with work authorization only,” in typical Amex fashion.
Tip: If you are having trouble getting approved for the business cards, try applying for the Biz Checking (and get the SUB!). That helps the Amex Biz applications sail through as well.
After approval, you can immediately get started on the employee offers. You’ll need those to keep you occupied since you’ll still be quite limited on card approvals until you are 12+ months in.
12 Months+: Fourteen Million, Six Hundred and Five Possibilities
Okay, maybe Dr. Strange was exaggerating when he said that, especially if you’re planning to stay under 5/24. If you still kept your Chase account, there are DPs of Chase Sapphire Reserve approvals with a 12-month history, as well as various data points for INKs and cards from other issuers as well. If you are curious about your chances, check out the myFICO forums for various approval DPs and even better, the US Credit Card Forum in Chinese, as many there start with a fresh credit file. I like to Google Search the card name along with “uscardforum” and translate the results. Know that at the end of the day, you can just eat the hard pull and your confidence will pay off with a thick and stable credit file in years to come.
So there you have it. A one-year, five-step guide for a new player to the game. Good luck!
EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m on an annual blogging vacation for the last two weeks of the year. To make sure you still have content, some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts in my absence. Special thanks to today’s author, the always helpful and funny SideShowBob233, for writing this post while I’m on vacation. I’ll see you on January 1!
Check kiting is an old fraud practice that is no longer as useful as it once was because balances can be verified in real time by some services. So, yours truly was sure surprised a couple of years ago when I called my hub bank to find out why my bank account was locked, and they told me it was closed because of “ACH kiting”. I asked what that was and the nice, friendly lady who was shutting down my account explained that it was the practice (similar to check kiting) of moving money out before it has cleared for the purposes of fraud. As I had not done this, and none of my ACH transfers had actually failed or been recalled, I asked why they were accusing me of this. She gave me a non-answer along the lines of “we heard this from a different bank but will not disclose who” and it suddenly made sense (can you picture the light bulb going off above my head, causing my flaming red hair to catch fire, set off the sprinklers, and pissing off my whole family?)
I had been using my hub bank as – surprise! – a hub, meaning I was transferring funds from a target account (back in the days when Walmart had bill payment in their app) to my hub bank and then sending them on their merry way back to wherever they were needed. While this was a terrible idea (see my EWS commentary on why using personal accounts for ACH is terrible) when one of my banks was shut down, they apparently called my hub and told them I was ACH kiting. Strange considering none of my ACH transfers ever failed, but they clearly didn’t understand why I was doing it and decided it was fraudulent. I can see why they might have felt this way given my practice of pulling funds a day or two after they arrived. At the same time I’d run probably $2M through their account by that point, so you’d think if I was going to pull my scam I’d likely have done it already, but compliance folks have to make themselves look useful somehow I guess.
In the good old US of A, ACH is handled over network connections with cups and string (see below), and those strings sometimes break (ask PaymentUS about this). Now most countries that also provide free healthcare (some with death panels – looking at you Afghanistan – some without) have instant ACH, but you wouldn’t want your money right away when you can get it in three business days would you? So we will love our cups and strings and enjoy our 3 day fund clearing, but know that our bank infrastructure is the best in the world, if by best you mean worst.
Since those fateful and fun days of yore I’ve learned a lot and I let funds sit for 3 full business days before moving them on their journey, unless I’m using a bank account where they understand money won’t sit in their account forever and they tolerate this (you can rake taek this however you want). That and moving all your funds only between business accounts except when absolutely necessary are keys to avoiding my fate.
EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m on an annual blogging vacation for the last two weeks of the year. To make sure you still have content, some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts in my absence. Special thanks to today’s author, MEAB’s P2, for writing this post while I’m on vacation. I’ll see you on January 1!
Growing up, I never liked to play Luigi in Mario Bros. This wasn’t for any real reason other than the fact I didn’t like his green outfit, and also being player two meant that I had to go second instead of being able to go first. As a kid, nobody else liked to be player two either.
As an adult… that’s a different story.
Being a player two in the miles and points community is nothing like playing Luigi in Mario Bros. For example, I don’t have to wear green turtlenecks or overalls. Also, I’m pretty sure Mario never took Luigi to Europe in business class on points, or booked the family in a swanky hotel because a suite upgrade was about to expire. But, while being player two comes with a million and a half perks, like getting upgraded at the best hotel in North America, it also has its challenges. For example:
Being a player two means that you spend part of your weekend driving around the valley to five or six different grocery stores (including the one right next to a delicious boba shop) to purchase gift cards.
Being a player two probably means that you have no idea how those gift cards turn into cash and/or points (?), but you’re a passenger princess, so you sip your boba and talk about how excited you are to get upgraded on your next flight.
Being a player two means that when you get the mail, there’s twenty five credit cards waiting for your player one. When you text them, the response is “oh cool, the first batch came.” (First batch?!)
Being a player two means getting dirty looks from old men who think you’re in the wrong for standing in the first class line at the airport. Especially since you probably have a latte in your hand, are rocking a “just rolled out of bed” messy bun with dark sunglasses, and wearing an old beat up Theranos sweatshirt.
Being a player two means watching that same old man make his way to comfort plus because he might have status, but your significant other (SO) has more, so you two got upgraded and not him.
Being a player two means getting a battlefield upgrade when you’re already on the plane and looking back at all the plebeians as you race up the aisle like you’re Cinder-fucking-ella.
Being a player two means that there are spreadsheets that you have no hope of untangling in the event something happens to your spouse.
No really. I have no idea what the spreadsheets mean. Are there spreadsheets? I’m unclear, but I know I have a boba so it’s prolly fine.
Being a player two means that your SO probably has ten plane tickets for destinations like “Australia”, “Japan”, and “Peru” and when you ask him what trip he’s going to take he says “IDK felt cute, might cancel later.”
Being a player two probably means hotel hopping in the middle of your vacation and, while this is completely normal, you’re more concerned that you’re going to hop to one that won’t give you a free restaurant breakfast.
Being a player two means getting put in the presidential suite at least twice.
Being a player two means that you now ask your SO if they “think we will get upgraded to the Presidential suite?” on each consecutive vacation.
Being a player two means that you probably look like a bougie bitch on your instagram page. You’re not, but you delight in playing one on TV.
However, this isn’t simply a list where I’m low key flexing about the cool things I sometimes get to do because I live with MEAB. I have a point, I promise! Being a player two also means that you must have a large amount of communication and trust between you and your player one. My husband — MEAB — travels…A. LOT. He travels for family, he travels for fun, he travels because he’s a Sagittarius (IYKYK), he travels with me, and he travels without me. In order for this lifestyle to work, we have to trust each other and have a ton of open communication. I not only have to trust that he works for the good of our family, I have to understand what all that hard work amounts to. It’s more than the fun and games of presidential suites and battlefield upgrades — it’s opportunities for us and our family. More than that, it’s experiences that help us and our children understand the world a little bit better.
Not only that, but being a player two probably means that your player one is working with your credit. MEAB and I have always had open dialogue about this. I know exactly what he’s doing and I know that everything gets paid, not in the future, but IMMEDIATELY. There is literally nothing I don’t know about, and if I asked him to stop, he would without question. He’s a risk taker for sure, but not with my credit, and not with things that could really get mucked up. He’s a consummate thinker. He wants to use the system, not break the system. I really admire him for that.
So, to all my player ones out there: thank you for reading this blog post. And, if you happen to have a player two, take them out for a little bevie bev (short for beverage) and have an open dialogue about what your goals are for miles and points hacking, AND what the boundaries are.
And for God’s sake, take them to the Waldorf Astroia Pedregal with a Hilton free night certificate or two. You’ll thank me later.
MEAB’s P2 after visiting Kroger #7. NOTE: The boba cup was shrunk to 2/3rds its original size with AI to fit properly in the frame.
