Category: Reselling

MEABNOTE: I’ll be going on a blogging vacation at the end of the year and there won’t be any daily posts between December 18 and December 31. After that, we’ll ring in the new year on January 1, 2025 with the 2024 version of Travel Hacking as Told by GIFs though, so no need to be up in arms, but I guess it’s ok if you’re up in legs.

By popular demand we’ll have at least a few guest posts during the break. If you’d like to write one, please reach out, I’d like to find guest posts for the whole break!

Introduction

We’ve talked several times about the Pepper Rewards gift card selling platform, which seems to have been explicitly designed to transfer money from Venture Capitalist bank accounts to our wallets at lighting speed. In the most recent MEAB post on the subject, I included a toy model based prediction that there’s a 50/50 chance that the company fails by the end of 2024. I’m now updating the timeline for the 50/50 failure scenario to be March 23, we’ll see why later.

Recent Changes

First, let’s discuss how Pepper has changed in the last month:

  • Bonus offers are now targeted to specific accounts
  • Many of the best offers are now limited to one per account per day
  • New accounts get low bonus offers until they spend five-ish figures
  • Account limits are either $5,500, $7,000, or $10,500 spend per rolling 24 hours
  • Most of the rebates are now floated for 14 days
  • Pepper has effectively stopped responding to most support requests
  • Pepper is moving merchant accounts from Stripe to PayArc

The first two bullets seem to be Pepper’s attempt at preventing a few whales from taking all of the best deals’ capacity through botting. The third and fourth bullets seem to attempt to separate gift card resellers from regular users and to separate resellers into tiers. The last two bullets are almost certainly about saving money and lowering reserve capital requirements.

Recent Deals

As degenerate churners are well aware, Pepper has pushed the resale market for high value gift cards down to decades-long lows by offering almost daily:

  • 17-20% discounts on Kohls gift cards
  • 12-16% discounts on Amazon gift cards
  • 12-16% discounts on Walmart and Sam’s Club gift cards
  • 15-18% discounts on Nike gift cards

Let’s get something out of the way about these deals: There’s no world in which Amazon or Walmart are giving gift card sellers a discount in the double digit percentages on millions of dollars of inventory. There’s also no world in which Pepper isn’t paying merchant processing fees of at minimum 2.7%, but more realistically 3%+ on each of these transactions too. Pepper is losing on each of these bulk gift card transactions, period.

Pepper’s Vision

Pepper has started a new funding round a month or two later than I expected based on the toy model, but still within the general time frame. Fortunately for us, their pitch deck and story is on YouTube so it’s easy to see what they’re telling investors. My favorite bits from the video:

  • Pepper is going to be a single shopping portal and remove the need for all the others
  • “Pepper earns a 6% commission on every transaction”
  • Pepper somehow will know your favorite color and shoe size with AI, and this isn’t MEAB snark
  • Their Chief Revenue Officer was a DoorDash sales executive
  • Pepper believes that their total addressable market is $6 trillion (almost 23% of the US GDP, seems legit)

There’s definitely a fair amount of slippery language in the video, but I want to call out the most slippery statement, that “Pepper earns a 6% commission on every transaction”. Look, I actually believe they earn an average of 6% commission on every transaction, but the slippery language is undoubtedly that their 6% is a gross commission on the face value of gift cards, not a profit margin. (I think Pepper is lucky if their current profit margin is -6%; it’s definitely not +6%.)

Side note: I think that 6% number is realistically the discount that they earn on face value for the aggregate of all the gift cards that they sell, making it a really interesting number for any future models.

The Pepper Future

Alright, we’ve buried the lede. Based on my toy model I expected a 50/50 failure by the end of 2024, but I’ve revised that to 50/50 by March 20. Why that date? It’s silly, but there’s a metric that’s more accurate than any toy model in my mind: Almost all high-growth, high-spend VC backed companies start raising their next round of funding 3-4 months before they run out of the cash from their last round; it’s almost universal for companies like this.

Given the above and that Pepper posted their investor presentation on December 8, three months is March 8, and four months is April 8, the expectation value for running out of money is March 23. If they haven’t run out of money by then, it’s probably for one or both of two reasons:

  • They’ve raised more cash successfully
  • They’ve restructured their expenses, including employee and boost costs

I’m sure Youtube is the way to most investors hearts though, right?

My Action

I still use Pepper, and I have pending rebates well into the thousands of dollars floated with them too. My goal is to scale that back gradually as March approaches to limit my exposure in case of a Pepper failure. If this was a public company, you can be completely sure I’d be buying out of the money puts. I also expect that I’ll end up losing some money when they eventually fail, but I can more-or-less control how much and take profits in the mean time.

Good luck and happy Tuesday friends!

The Pepper Chief Revenue Officer’s prior work gives a glimpse into Pepper.

  1. The Barclays AAdvantage Aviator Mastercard has a heightened sign up bonus of 70,000 AAdvantage miles after a single purchase in 90 days. The $99 annual fee is not waived for the first year.

    This card is useful beyond the sign-up bonus because it can eventually be product changed into the AAdvantage Silver card, but only after a year thanks to the CARD act.
  2. Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, and other Just4U stores have 10x points on Zillions and Zillions Zift cards through Saturday. On Saturday when the “surprise” weekend gift card 4x event is released, you’ll get 12x. (Spoiler alert to Safeway management: Surprises that happen reliably every week with the same offer and same duration cease to be surprises at some point.)
  3. Meijer MPerks has a bonus of 10,000 points with the purchase of a $150+ Visa or Mastercard gift card through November 9, limit one per account.

    Meijer sells both Pathward and Sunrise gift cards.
  4. Giftcards.com has Gift of College gift cards available with no purchase fee. You might earn 2% back in giftcards.com rewards after registering for their program through the end of October, though Gift of College is technically excluded from that program. You will earn portal cash back if you’re sly. Always be probing, Gift of College has been ripe for weirdness in the past but eventually the money does need to end up in a 529 account.
  5. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 or more in Visa gift cards through Saturday, limit 10. For best results:

    – Link your credit cards to Dosh
    – Buy in even multiples of $300
    – Look for lower fee variants if you know how to liquidate them

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  6. Chase Ultimate Rewards has a heightened redemption for Apple products at a rate of 1.5 cents per point for the Sapphire Reserve or 1.25 cents per point for the Sapphire Preferred or Ink Business Preferred cards (or less on other, stupider cards). The promotion runs through the end of November.

    These rates beat regular Pay-Yourself-Back rates, especially if you’re in the reselling game.
  7. There are two small business merchant processing sign-up bonuses:

    – Bank of America $1,000 after $100,000 processed in 90 days
    – US Bank $1,000 offer after accepting charges monthly for three months

    Since we’re MEABers around here, let’s caution a few items: (1) running more than a few gift cards will almost certainly get your account shut down and banned from the processor which could have repercussions on future real businesses; (2) running your own credit cards will almost certainly get your credit cards shut down, sometimes even same-day with banks like AmEx; and (3) you’ll get a 1099 for payments processed. So always be probing, but know when a fence is electrified too, and this one is.

    My advice is to keep these accounts completely above board if you’re going for the bonus. If you don’t have a real business for merchant processing, consider selling a few things on Facebook Marketplace. Combine with the previous item for extra #flair.

Happy Monday!

Stupider cards, prolly.

As we’ve discussed in the past, the holidays present a rare opportunity for manufactured spend because:

  • It’s normal to buy lots of gift cards during the holidays
  • Opening new credit lines is passé, perhaps even normal
  • Some cashiers are care-free when you’re wearing a turkey or Santa hat
  • Stores are busy, so cashiers have more to worry about than a gift card at self check out

The holidays also typically mean plenty of gift cards go on sale at relatively steep discounts, hot merchandise commands a huge resale value, and plenty of stock everywhere.

If you’re playing the third party or gift card resale game, you’ll need buyers, naturally. The best rates will come from sourcing buyers directly, but there’s also plenty of value in letting a specialized broker take a cut of your spoils, also known as the Homer garbage man philosophy: “can’t someone else do it?“

So, let’s talk about some generally well respected goods and gift card buyers, in randomized order. Note: I’m not endorsing any of these buyers, but generally speaking I’ve had a good experience with all of them. Please do your own research and make sure you’re comfortable before engaging. Sometimes things go wrong. My general advice applies: Never float more than you can stand to lose if everything goes pear-shaped.

Gift Card Buyers (Gift Card Arbitrage)

Goods Buyers (Retail Arbitrage)

Some of these will also offer opportunities for cashing out Visa and Mastercard gift cards. Keep those eyes open, and good luck!

An example of a smartphone resale deal going pear shaped, leaked from internal Android patent documentation.

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, an original Unsung Hero, is sending targeted spending offers for the new year. Mine:

    – 10% back in statement credits on $700-$800 in spend at restaurants, grocery, or gas

    This offer is good once a month for January, February, and March, so $240 over three months for the math challenged. Check for the subject: “[Name], activate your limited-time offer now for sweet rewards!”
  2. Reddit and Doctor of Credit are going nuts about some supposedly new Dell rules about order limits and myriad theories about what they mean. There’s quite a bit of alleged truthy information and mis-information floating in both places, so let’s talk about the rules as I understand without speculation. (These rules have been around since at least January 2022):

    – Any more than five orders in the last six months will get you tagged as a reseller
    – The time limits are rolling
    – If you order five items in a single order, that still counts as a single order
    – Cancelled digital orders do count against the limit, physical goods orders don’t
    – Just because you’re tagged as a reseller doesn’t mean your orders will be cancelled, but there’s a much higher likelihood of cancel if so

    Maybe it’s not as well known as I thought, but you can have multiple Dell accounts to side-skirt these limits, and the order limitations are on a per-account basis as long as you’re not flagged as a reseller. If you get flagged as a reseller, then all accounts at your address have the combined order limit, and possibly further restrictions like the inability to order digital goods. You can get the reseller flag cleared, but it’s extremely ymmv even if you talk to the right department and person, and you’ve got to get it cleared on all accounts at your address to boot.
  3. Chase’s Pay-yourself-back categories are now set for Q1, 2023:

    – Sapphire Reserve: Grocery, gas, and annual fee at 1.25 cents per point
    – Sapphire Preferred: 1 cent per point for nearly all categories
    – Ink Business Preferred: Internet, cable, cell phones, and shipping at 1.25 cents per point
    – Ink Cash and Ink Unlimited: Internet, cable, cell phones, and shipping at 1.10 cents per point

    Most of these cards get an extra 0.25 cents per point at select charities too. (Currently I can’t find an official list of the select charities on Chase’s website, though there are random lists on the internet which are likely correct.)

Happy 2023!

The official motto of Reddit’s Dell rules threat on January 1, 2023.

Introduction

Historically speaking the time between the second week of November and Christmas has been the biggest volume for manufactured spend in the year, at least during my career. That’s because:

  • Buying lots of Visa and Mastercard gift cards is temporarily normalized
  • Most stores run first-party holiday gift card promotions
  • Big gift card sellers run third-party holiday gift card promotions
  • Consumer electronics and other hot items for buyer’s groups are well stocked and often on sale
  • Nit-picky cashiers and customer service representatives are too busy to worry much about what you’re doing

If you want to participate in the gift card or buyer’s groups holiday manufactured spend cluster-hug, this weekend is a great time to get signed up with the major players so you have a liquidation channel and deal alert notification flow.

Gift Card Buyers and Resellers

In no particular order, most volume in third party gift cards flows through one of these buyers, all of which are considered generally reputable in the community, and I’ve checked with all of them and they’re ready to on-board for the holidays:

Buyers Groups

The following buyer’s groups are considered generally reputable in the community, and if you sign-up this weekend you should be on-boarded in time for black Friday:

Let me also offer some unsolicited advice: While you’re figuring out how buying groups work, stick with deals from Amazon and skip the other stores which can often require some voodoo to get working properly.

Good luck!

A manufactured spend prepper’s closet.

[For those of you outside of Kroger land, general principles about tackling problems may still be applicable.]

We’ve talked about the strange state of Kroger Fuel points several times this year, but there are new developments that warrant yet another one of these posts. Unfortunately things aren’t great and nearly every heavy-hitter manufactured spender that was utilizing fuel points in their strategies has had accounts irrevocably locked and lost at least a little money as a result. The updates:

  • Kroger now seems to have a dedicated team seeking fuel points abuse
  • Kroger is reaching out to some heavy hitters by email, asking them to explain the account
  • Accounts are being locked in near real time while loading, and it seems to be triggered by back-to-back purchases
  • Kroger is finding ways to correlate accounts, apparently even by the purchasing credit card
  • Kroger has shutdown an account mid-redemption

So, if you still want to play the game, you need to stay under the radar. That means:

  • Get a new IP address before creating or accessing an account (some ideas here)
  • Use a new incognito window when creating or accessing an account
  • Use a new credit card number when buying (AU and employee cards can help)
  • If you do back to back transactions, use multiple cards and Kroger accounts
  • Load fuel points at a drip over several days
  • Redeem fuel points back-to-back, as quickly as possible if outside of your own geography, or as a slow drip if within your own geography

The window is very much closing on this one, stay safe!

The Kroger fuel points marketplace.

  1. There’s a new offer for turning your American Express Platinum and Business Platinum Clear credits into a $75 Uber voucher. In the past you’ve only needed a new email address to get these to work even if you already have Clear, and I assume this time is no different.
  2. Meijer has a promotion for $50 off of $500 in many third party gift card purchases. This is the less lucrative version of this offer versus a straight discount, but still generally very lucrative. Notable exclusions are Apple and Amazon, and worthwhile inclusions are BestBuy and Home Depot. (Thanks to GC Galore)
  3. There are multiple reports in the MEAB slack and elsewhere that Mastercards from MyPrepaidCenter have been fraudulently drained since late last week, likely from a site-hack based on the data-points and given that the site was offline for much of yesterday. If you have any of those cards, I’d suggest you drain them as soon as possible, or at minimum double check the balances. If you have cards that were compromised you should be able to dispute the charges and get your original balance back, but it’ll probably be a slog.
  4. Check your email for a targeted offer from Discover bank for $100 or $150 bonus for brining either $10,000 or $15,000 in deposits into the bank by the end of September, and maintaining an average balance of at least that much through the end of November. The terms and conditions are here. (Thanks to 5 via MEAB slack)

A scammer liquidating a gift card.

Kroger fuel points are an integral part of the bulk gift card reselling market, perhaps more-so in 2022 than any other year. They’ve boosted that bulk market even further by running nearly non-stop 4x fuel points promotions on third party gift cards, including one that started on Wednesday and runs through Tuesday, September 20.

As we discussed in August though, something is rotten in the state of Denmark Kroger: The company is actively targeting suspected fuel points resellers and has seemingly shut down more accounts in the last couple of months than in the entire prior history of the program. It’s gotten so bad that I know of a single individual that had fuel points accounts worth over $10,000 frozen without recourse.

Without further ado, here’s a Q&A session that I held with my alter-ego to address questions that have been swirling around various groups and chat forums:

Q: What’s the trigger for an account that’s shutdown?
A: Datapoints are literally all over the place, and as of now we don’t really have a great idea.

Q: What does a shutdown look like?
A: At the pump when trying to redeem points, you see the message: “Invalid Loyalty ID”

Q: Can my fuel points account be unfrozen?
A: So far, I’ve not heard of a single success story or workaround

Q: How widespread is the shutdown risk?
A: It seems to be a minority of fuel points reseller accounts that are affected, but there’s a big “but”

Q: What’s the big “but”?
A: I’m so glad you asked. Even though it’s a minority of accounts that are shutdown, when a one of reseller’s accounts is shutdown, often so are a bunch of other accounts held by the same reseller

Q: How can I protect myself going forward?
A: I’d say three things:

Q: Should I cut the fuel points game out?
A: I don’t think so, just be careful and follow my usual manufactured spend advice: never have more outstanding than you’re willing to lose if everything goes wrong

Have a nice weekend friends!

Just be careful, and you too can still be the Kroger fuel points GOAT.