The Drake equation, But for Status

Introduction

One of the most click-baitey articles that travel bloggers write is: “What is [Airline] Status Worth? [Year] Edition”. I’m sick of seeing these articles, so I decided it was time to come up with the equivalent of the Drake equation, but for airline status because that’s apparently the best I can do with my life, and also it marks the first time that my astrophysics training has a real world application (except not really, see below).

Background

The Drake equation calculates the probability of finding alien life, provided that you’re willing to make a bunch of hand-wavey assumptions and then plug them into a formula. This, it turns out, is exactly what those “What is [Airline] Status Worth?” articles do too, except they calculate a dollar amount instead of probability.

So, in an attempt to make “the one airline status value formula to rule them all”, let’s, shall we say, go.

The Status Equation

\$V_{status} = n_{phone}
 ⋅RH+n_{UI}
 ⋅UI+BM+n_{FPS}​	
 ⋅FPS+n_{up} 
 ⋅FU+BT+ANC+ SSW

Where:

• n_phone = The number of times you’ll make a call to the airline
• RH = The value of reduced hold time
• n_UI = The number of upgrade instruments you’ll earn and use
• UI = The value of an upgrade instrument
• BM = Bonus redeemable miles you’ll earn for holding status
• n_FPS = The number of free priority assigned seats you’ll get
• FPS = The value of a free priority assigned seat
• n_up = The number of times you’ll be upgraded
• FU = The value of a free upgrade (unironically abbreviated, I promise)
• BT = The value of your elite brag tags, you know, like this
• ANC = The value of ancillary benefits, like rental car status (that you probably already get from a credit card)
• SSW = The value of your increased sense of self worth for holding elite status

So, just like the drake up equation, make up a bunch of numbers for what could happen and you’ll come up with the dollar value of your status. For example, I decided that my AA Executive Platinum Status is worth $3,430, but that’s mostly because of SSW. Remove that, and it’s probably worth $500.

Have a nice Thursday friends!

What’s the additional value of being served in a Delta branded cup on an AA flight? Science still doesn’t know.