Category: Miles

  1. Southwest has a fare sale for paid and award travel between April 22 and August 27 with promo code TAKE30. There are some blackout dates, and the blackout dates seem more city specific than the terms and conditions suggest.

    Tickets booked before May 28 still get free checked bags and no change fees, and a small bright spot is that the variable Rapid Rewards redemption rates are more favorable on the flights eligible for the promo code too. For some bad analysis redemption values, compare the pre-sale cash price to the post-sale award price and marvel at how your math approaches TPG valuations.
  2. Chase’s Q2 2025 Pay Yourself Back categories for Sapphire cards are: gas, grocery (but not Walmart or Target, and probably not Han’s Deli either), pet supply and vets, charities, and annual membership fees. Charities pay a +25% bigger boost, and redemptions continue to be uncapped.

    They have co-brand card Pay Yourself Back on Marriott Bold, United, Southwest, and Aeroplan with relatively small limits, but the cashout typically only makes sense on Marriott Bold or Aeroplan.
  3. AirCanada Aeroplan has opened registration for a promotion for 3,000 bonus points on a one-way booking, or 6,000 bonus points on a round-trip booking made by April 13 for travel through December 15.

    News outlets have been parroting a 75% drop in bookings between the US and Canada since the trade war started which is likely extremely exaggerated due to flawed study methodology and sample bias. The real number may be closer to 10-20%, but either way it’s bad. I expect this promotion will be copied in spirit by US Airlines relatively soon.
  4. JetBlue and Icelandair have a new partnership, so I guess you can choose between poor redemption values from TrueBlue and poor (future) redemption values from Southwest Rapid Rewards.
  5. American Express Membership Rewards has a 20% transfer bonus to Etihad Guest and a 20% transfer bonus to AeroMexico ClubPremier. The former is a great backdoor way into short-haul AA travel.
  6. Chase Ultimate Rewards has an 80% transfer bonus to IHG through April 30, making it a 1,000:1,800 transfer ratio. In general you can do better by other booking games, but there are use cases where IHG points bookings have outsized value.

Deriving TPG point valuations.

  1. American Express has targeted more accounts with a bonus of 20,000 Membership Rewards for enabling Pay over Time on its charge cards. A few notes:

    – Set a reminder to disable Pay over Time after 121 days to be eligible to be retargeted
    – If multiple cards are targeted, activate quick on all of them

    What happens if you turn off Pay over Time before then? To the penalty box! (Maybe)
  2. American Express has a Q2 referrer bonus for 5x earning on up to $25,000 spend in travel and transit for three months in addition to the 15,000-35,000 Membership Rewards the referrer typically gets.

    The offers available to the referred haven’t changed, but referring to a business card that you close quickly without hitting a sign-up bonus is one way to play the game. (Thanks to mra101485)
  3. Kroger has fee-free virtual Visa and Mastercard $100 gift cards online with promo code NOFEEMADNESS through tonight, and these will earn Kroger fuel points too. This also marks the first time that I’ve seen Mastercards sold at Kroger.com since they transitioned from US Bank to BlackHawk Network for gift card fulfillment.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. Chase’s Sapphire Reserve used to earn 10x points on all Lyft purchases, now that drops to 5x through September 30, 2027 which matches the earn on Inks and the Sapphire Preferred. There’s a new monthly credit of $10 towards Lyft rides for the Sapphire Reserve only through the same time period.
  5. As of today Fiji Airlines award tickets can be booked with AA AAdvantage miles joins oneWorld and uses AA as its currency for dynamic awards. On average, that probably means today is the best day for redemption availability, so I guess there’s no time like the present eh?

April Fool’s day is every day but April 1 at MEAB, so here’s a boring image as your feed cleanser for the rest of the day’s onslaught.

  1. Do this now: Make any Hyatt award bookings today that fit your schedule before the award chart is retooled tomorrow and lots of hotels go up in redemption cost. Most award bookings have great cancelation policies, so even speculative bookings probably make sense.
  2. Turkish Airlines and Hilton have a promotion (registration required) for 1,000 bonus Turkish miles for stays through June 30, provided you set Turkish as your preferred travel partner in your Hilton profile. For new Hilton accounts, you earn 1,000 Turkish miles for each stay, but for existing Hilton accounts can you only earn the bonus once.
  3. The Chase IHG Premier Business card has an increased tiered sign-up bonus:

    – 140,000 points after $4,000 spend in three months
    – 60,000 points after $9,000 spend in six months

    The $99 annual fee is not waived for the first year.
  4. The Barclays Aviator Red Card has an increased sign-up bonus of 70,000 AAdvantage miles after making a single purchase and paying the $95 annual fee.

    The best ongoing use case for this card used to be converting it to an AAdvantage Silver after a year, but because Citi will be the exclusive card issuer in 2026, that ship has probably sailed for new applicants. Instead, the best use beyond the sign-up bonus is probably to get a higher (or initial) credit line at Citi after the takeover.
  5. The Chase Sapphire Preferred (100,000 Ultimate Rewards), United Explorer (80,000 MileagePlus miles), and United Business (150,000 MileagePlus miles) cards’ increased sign-up bonuses are live today.
  6. Staples has fee-free $200 Mastercards through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  7. Since it’s launch in 2021, I’ve thought the Chase United Quest Card was stupid, but it just keeps getting stupider and I’m convinced the product development team for the card lives in an alternate plane of existence. The annual fee has increased to $350, and there are new stupid credits to, uh, justify (?) the stupid increase:

    – $5 monthly Instacart credit, plus $10 one time Instacart credit
    – $150 in credits at stupid Renowned Hotels and Resorts
    – $8 in monthly rideshare credits, except in December when it’s $12
    – $150 in stupid JSX purchases
    – Small TravelBank credits for your first two rentals with Avis or Budget, but only using the United AWD which has generally inflated prices

    This is probably a good change for exactly three cardholders on the planet, and bravo to you if you’re one of them.

An amusement park in the United Quest Card team’s alternate plane of existence.

If you search Perplexity for “What are American Airlines miles worth?”, you may get a range of numbers from 1.0 cents each to 2.5 cents each and a lot of hallucinated reasoning behind those numbers too. If you repeat the search, you’ll probably get a different result. Valuing miles is hard, even for AI. So, often we revert to one of the hobby’s normal methods:

  • A mile is worth the value of selling it on the grey market
  • A mileage redemption is worth the cash that you would have paid without the miles
  • A mileage redemption is worth the cash price that the ticket or property is listed for
  • A mile is worth 1.0 cents, because most programs let you redeem at that level
    A mile is worth your opportunity cost for acquiring it

Those are all fine and good, but sometimes you need a legally defensible valuation for a mile as part of a settlement, tax action, corporate valuation, or similar rigorous process, and the above answers typically won’t cut it because of logical holes big enough to fly an A380 through. Also, judges in particular hate it when you’ve got a hand-waivey answer with variability left up to the eye of the beholder. So, let’s reintroduce a mileage valuation that’s easily defensible:

  • A mile is worth what the program will sell it to you for

Right now, I can buy 10,000 AA miles for $338.63, so for the purposes of a legally defensible valuation for miles, AA miles are worth 3.3863 cents each.

Happy Wednesday!

Yes, there’s another common way to determine mileage value.

  1. Hyatt released its category changes scheduled to take effect on March 25. Many more properties are going up in category than going down so make speculative bookings for future travel now, especially if that travel includes Japan.
  2. It’s time for a semi-regular Pepper update:

    – Pepper is regularly selling Walmart and other high value cards with 30% back in coins
    – Amazon’s “partnership” with Pepper no longer allows card purchases, but only if you’re not special apparently

    I can’t imagine a plausible positive spin on either of these items, but I’m sure several churners buried up to their ears in Pepper coins have one. (Yes, I still have floated Pepper coins, but I’m only buried up to my ankles.)
  3. The Lufthansa Miles & More program, long a sweet spot for churners buried up to their ears in esoteric details, is moving to dynamic award prices for Lufthansa, Swiss, and Austrian tickets starting on June 15, and the base mileage cost for Premium Economy, Business, and First is going up on many routes too.

    Unlike with Pepper, I can imagine a few plausible positive spin on this: (1) You’ll be able to book flights that wouldn’t have availability under the old scheme, but probably at much higher mileage costs; and (2) economy fares will have a lower bottom. On the whole though, these changes suck.
  4. There are a few targeted generic upgrade offers for Delta Business Gold American Express card holders:

    – Gold to Platinum with 30,000 SkyMiles and a $100 statement credit after $6,000 spend in six months
    – Gold or Platinum to Reserve with 40,000 SkyMiles and a $200 statement credit after $10,000 spend in six months

    If you’re fast, or lucky, or maybe fast and lucky, you might get both back-to-back from a Business Gold. (Thanks to Bill)
  5. The Ceasar’s Rewards Visa Signature credit card includes Diamond status if you apply by March 1 and spend $5,000 within the first 90 days outside of Ceasars properties, which is extra useful if you’re a washout from a mostly defunct trademarked merry-go-round. (Special thanks to Joshua)
  6. Southwest has 30% off of base fares with promo code 30SPLASH for flights booked by tomorrow night and travel between March 18 and May 21.

    I repriced existing travel and averaged about 30% off with this promotion, which is slightly better than normal and surprisingly on brand for the promo code.

Have a nice Wednesday!

Visualization of being buried up to your ears in Pepper coins.

Yesterday’s Change

Yesterday, AirFrance and KLM’s FlyingBlue program devalued its low level awards (again). Long haul prices on KLM or AirFrance:

  • Economy: 25,000 miles each way, up from 20,000 miles
  • Premium economy: 40,000 miles each way, up from 35,000 miles
  • Business: 60,000 miles each way, up from 50,000 miles
  • La Premiere: 165,000 miles each way, up from 150,000 miles

Partner award prices went up somewhat too. The change was intentional, and in theory will also bring increased award availability on first party metal.

Devaluations Will Happen

Unfortunately, devaluations will continue over time in all programs because:

  • Inflation in consumer prices means more points earned for buying the same things with a credit card
  • Inflation in hotel and airfare prices means more points are awarded for revenue bookings
  • For airlines, CASM inflates over time, and providing an award seat costs more over time
  • For hotels, CPOR inflates over time, so providing free nights costs more over time
  • Decreasing the value of issued points lowers liabilities on a company’s balance sheet

The only way devaluations won’t happen is with regulation, but (a) that’s unlikely to come, and (b) would just cause a different type of devaluation, such as no award space released.

Protecting Yourself

To effectively shield yourself from devaluations to the extent that such a thing is possible:

  • Book awards as early as possible: Points on average are worth more now than they will be in the future, so lock in current pricing when you can
  • Book speculative awards with spare points: As long as a program offers free cancelations, you can lock in current pricing and cancel if the trip won’t work out (or if a lower price comes along)
  • Don’t save more points than you can reasonably burn in the next n months: Saving points that will decrease in value probably isn’t fiscally sound, just like eating a tub of lard probably isn’t nutritionally sound. Ok, but what value should you use for n? It’s hard to say, but I think the half-life of devaluations is around 24 months with some medium variance
  • (A corollary to the prior item) Cash out excess points, especially those you can’t burn in the next n months: Cashed out points turn into cash, which: earns interest, can be invested, and can be used to buy more miles if you cashed out too many. It turns out, money is fungible

Good luck out there!

Next time on Tuesday Wisdom: Elmo’s airplane explains RASM.

  1. Do this now: Enroll your American Express Business Platinum cards in the new $50 quarterly Hilton credit. A quick Q&A:

    – Will this work with HiltonGiftCards.com? Probably
    – Will this work buying gift cards at a hotel? Yes
    – Will this work at Hilton restaurant? Probably, stick to resorts to be sure
    – Will this work for a regular hotel to pay your bill? Yes
    – Is AmEx going to raise the annual fee? Probably not in 2025, but yes
    – Is Dell going away in 2H2025? We can only pray
    – What’s America’s favorite fruit? Banana
    – Did anyone make it this far? Yes

    If you’ve got a bunch of business Platinums, just make sure that you get an email for each card. Sometimes the site enrolls the wrong card, or reenrolls a card that you didn’t select.
  2. Avianca LifeMiles can be purchased for as little as 1.27 cents each with a sale running through the end of December.

    Conventional wisdom in the hobby says “never buy miles except to top-off your account for a redemption.” The wisdom is showing its age when transferable points are cashed out easily into interest bearing accounts, and points costs have dipped below 1.3 cents. For example, yesterday I was looking at an ANA First Class redemption that was 114,000 LifeMiles. I could have paid about $$1,447 to buy those miles directly rather than transferring miles in. Obviously, there’s more to come on this topic in the future.
  3. Southwest has extended its schedule for fall travel including Labor Day weekend through October 1. Booking a cheap flight that’s far out and within two weeks of a more expensive flight that you actually want to take is a great way to hedge booking costs, assuming flight schedule change between then and now.
  4. AA is retooling its AAdvantage program for 2025. The quick summary:

    – New million-miler tiers at four (Platinum Pro) and five (Executive Platinum) million miles
    – Systemwide Upgrades will last through the end of the elite year after March 1, 2025
    – Redeem miles for inflight food, probably at a terrible rate
    – New Loyalty Point awards, all low value

    You still can’t earn million-miler tiers with Loyalty Points, only with flown miles.
  5. Giant, Giant Foods, Martins, and Stop & Shop stores have 8x-10x points on Lululemon and Barnes & Noble gift cards, depending on chain through Thursday, December 19.

$50 breakfast at a Hilton Garden Inn in Lubbock (prolly, I can’t be bothered to fact check).

  1. There’s a new public link on the front page of Delta.com for increased sign-up bonuses on American Express cobranded cards. There’s a second link buried at creditcard.delta.com too, so try both if one doesn’t work. Unlike most times when the blog-o-sphere is saying “more people targeted” because someone said so on reddit, this time it actually appears to be true; No, I’m not bitter, you’re bitter! Anyway:

    – Reserve: 100,000 miles after $5,000 spend in six months
    – Platinum: 90,000 miles after $3,000 spend in six months
    – Gold: 70,000 miles after $2,000 spend in six months
    – Reserve Business: 110,000 miles after $10,000 spend in six months
    – Platinum Business: 100,000 miles after $6,000 spend in six months
    – Gold Business: 80,000 miles after 4 $4,00 spend in six months, waived annual fee

    If you get the popup, try the other link which often has different popup criteria.
  2. If you have money locked up with Yotta or Juno thanks to the Synapse FinTech collapse, check your email for a payout link from one of the underlying banks that was servicing accounts, Evolve. There are multiple reports of payments being correct and several where people are short, at least one by over $94,000, though it’s not clear whether that money was put at Evolve by Synapse or put somewhere else. To find the email, look for one of:

    – Email: [email protected]
    – Subject: Return of Synapse Brokerage’s End User Funds

    Don’t forget to add “in:anywhere” to your search to look through spam and other folders in your inbox. If you don’t have your email yet, there’s a completely unverified rumor that it may take until the 16th to send all emails.

    In related news, apparently Evolve’s CTO and CEO/President have been terminated. I’m not saying that’s unjustified especially after Evolve leaked customer information in a data-breach, but it’s strange to see everyone going after Evolve leadership instead of Synapse leadership.
  3. Capital One has a 20% transfer bonus to British Airways Avios, and by extension all airlines that use Avios through December 1. (Thanks to jtevy)
  4. The American Express Centurion Business card will have a cap on its 50% airfare booking rebate at 3 Million rebated points annually starting on February 1.

You can’t hold someone accountable if they can’t account I guess?