How many miles should you hold in a loyalty account before you start liquidating them or choosing to earn something else instead? My hand-wavey answer is: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation. Of course, we don’t really know when the next devaluation will happen, but we can look into the last 10 years to try and find patterns on a program specific level.
Why Programs Devalue
Before we do that, let’s remind ourselves why devaluations happen:
Inflation happens, and mileage earning is tied to prices
Airline CASM increases over time
Hotel CPOR increases over time
Devaluing a currency helps a balance sheet
Devaluations suck, but they’re entirely predictable over time. If we take as a given that programs will devalue, the next logical question is “how often?”
The Frequency
I collected data for frequent flyer program devaluations from the year 2015 until now for the major five US airlines. For this dataset, I only considered redemption devaluations; I excluded elite program changes, the removal of free-stop overs, and similar perks that aren’t directly tied to the mileage redemption rate. Some of these devaluations were only for specific types of redemptions (for example, partner awards to Europe), but that didn’t matter for this study. If redemptions devalued in some way, they were included here.
Now, let’s go airline by airline, sorted by frequency of devaluation:
Ok, now what’s the expectation value for a devaluation in each program, just taking the number of devaluations divided by the time period (10 years)?
Airline
Devaluation Time (Expectation Value)
Standard Deviation
Delta
1.00 years
0.42 years
United
1.67 years
1.05 years
Southwest
2.00 years
0.88 years
Alaska
2.00 years
1.11 years
AA
3.33 years
1.82 years (sqrt(3/10))
What do I do with that?
Alright, how do you make this data actionable? Well let’s go back to my hand-wavey metric for when you should stop holding miles in a particular program: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation.
That means that I wouldn’t hold more Delta SkyMiles than I’m likely to redeem in the next 1.00 years, or at least the next 1.00 years after October 2023 (😬 Spoiler alert: It seems likely that we’re going to see another Delta devaluation soon.) It’s also yet another argument about why you should be holding flexible currencies that transfer multiple places and can be cashed out directly.
– Transcons from 7,500 miles – Mexico from 7,500 miles – Alaska from 17,500 miles – Hawaii from 7,500 miles
Based on my searches, Delta is quietly matching this fare sale to and from Delta hubs.
You’ve now got another Card Pointers free alternative in addition to faux-cardpointersamex-load-offer.js. The US Credit Cards 101 Chrome plugin adds a button to the American Express offers dashboard to add an offer to all cards on the same login simultaneously, rather than just to a single card.
One day, credit card issuers will learn about database atomicity, but we’re not there yet.
Happy Thursday!
The American Express technology team’s unofficial poster. (Sorry, sometimes database humor can’t be helped)
Gamers can often find regular links with 250,000 Membership Rewards and manage to get approved despite lifetime language, but there’s utility in the easy game too. (Thanks to DDG)
Each promotion is limited to $10 cash back or 1,000 Membership Rewards per transaction, and each must be re-activated an hour after first use. Both stores sell gift cards.
There’s a slightly interesting play for converting Ultimate Rewards into difficult to earn airline programs like Lufthansa Miles&More (EDIT: Gary reminded me that Lufthansa Miles&More is no longer part of the program), which has a transfer ratio from Ultimate Rewards through Bonvoy of 1:0.687 in 25,000 mile increments.
– If you’re going to do a transfer, just knock it out now so you don’t have to think about it later – Every time you see one of these articles, take a shot of your favorite beverage
The churner who finds the most articles and comments about the “partnership ending” and “last chance” gets a prize!
Happy Tuesday!
A churner passes out after reading RSS feeds for 17 minutes while playing the new drinking game.
It’s been a while since we’ve played a round of the Breeze Route Dartboard Bingo™, so let’s call another route: Wilkes-Barre, PA – Fort Meyers, FL, or AVP-RSW for the ICAO geeks out there! If you’ve made a bingo, reach out for a 44% off of base fares promotional code on any Breeze route, including this one.
Have a nice Wednesday!
Spending $506.95 for a Swedish Fish shows that inflation’s already hit Big Gummy.
Tickets booked before May 28 still get free checked bags and no change fees, and a small bright spot is that the variable Rapid Rewards redemption rates are more favorable on the flights eligible for the promo code too. For some bad analysis redemption values, compare the pre-sale cash price to the post-sale award price and marvel at how your math approaches TPG valuations.
Chase’s Q2 2025 Pay Yourself Back categories for Sapphire cards are: gas, grocery (but not Walmart or Target, and probably not Han’s Deli either), pet supply and vets, charities, and annual membership fees. Charities pay a +25% bigger boost, and redemptions continue to be uncapped.
They have co-brand card Pay Yourself Back on Marriott Bold, United, Southwest, and Aeroplan with relatively small limits, but the cashout typically only makes sense on Marriott Bold or Aeroplan.
– Set a reminder to disable Pay over Time after 121 days to be eligible to be retargeted – If multiple cards are targeted, activate quick on all of them
What happens if you turn off Pay over Time before then? To the penalty box! (Maybe)
The offers available to the referred haven’t changed, but referring to a business card that you close quickly without hitting a sign-up bonus is one way to play the game. (Thanks to mra101485)
Kroger has fee-free virtual Visa and Mastercard $100 gift cards online with promo code NOFEEMADNESS through tonight, and these will earn Kroger fuel points too. This also marks the first time that I’ve seen Mastercards sold at Kroger.com since they transitioned from US Bank to BlackHawk Network for gift card fulfillment.
