On most days since early 2024, the the Pepper platform offered bonus promotions on gift card purchases, and those bonuses crept up to the point of absurdity where Walmart, Delta, Home Depot, and other high value gift cards paid 30%. That all changed yesterday when a few things happened:
- Tuesday morning bonus drops came hours later than normal
- When they did come, payouts fell from 30x to 18-25x on the best bulk brands
- In-app deal terms specified that even lower bonuses will be coming next week
- They announced through multiple channels that lowered bonus payouts were permanent and that bonuses would be shrinking weekly until the business reached sustainability
Why did Pepper pivot? I think it’s been obvious since last year that these rates were unsustainable and that Pepper was losing money on every transaction (and oh yeah they just told us so), so a change was needed for the company to continue operating.
My most controversial blog post in terms of volume of discussion it produced was that based on how venture funding in big tech works, I guessed there was a 50/50 chance that Pepper would either run out of money or that they’d get new funding in March. I think the latter has probably happened and is exactly why we’re seeing all of these changes, and as a corollary I think that means that it’s probably as safe to use Pepper as most any other startup FinTech at this point. It’s also possible that it pivoted for an entirely unrelated reason, but I haven’t thought of another reason that lines up with the public and private data I have.
Regardless of why Pepper changed though, the fact that it did means that likely:
- Bulk resale rates will creep back up as old, discounted inventory is sold
- Floated coins in Pepper are probably safer than they were
- Pepper will probably have extra runway for new development and enhancements, like maybe launching its AI product that (1) somehow knows your favorite color and shoe size, (2) ????, and (3) profit
- People holding gift cards bought in the last couple of months can soon sell for big profits
- Gift card resellers have a new post from a rando on the internet to debate repeatedly, and empirically, approximately 12 of those debaters won’t even bother to skim the article before debating
What’s my action, asked nobody? I hit Pepper coin-zero just last week after gradually drawing down my float, but I no longer feel like I need to be there. When resale rates return and deals are profitable, I’ll be playing the Pepper game like it was Summer 2024. I’m also buying some cards at the current bonus in anticipation of the bonus falling next week, and I expect I’ll be holding those cards for a while. Remember though, just because I’m doing something doesn’t mean you should do it too; in fact often it means you shouldn’t.

Pepper’s Spring form revealed to the world.