Category: Airlines

Introduction

How many miles should you hold in a loyalty account before you start liquidating them or choosing to earn something else instead? My hand-wavey answer is: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation. Of course, we don’t really know when the next devaluation will happen, but we can look into the last 10 years to try and find patterns on a program specific level.

Why Programs Devalue

Before we do that, let’s remind ourselves why devaluations happen:

  • Inflation happens, and mileage earning is tied to prices
  • Airline CASM increases over time
  • Hotel CPOR increases over time
  • Devaluing a currency helps a balance sheet

Devaluations suck, but they’re entirely predictable over time. If we take as a given that programs will devalue, the next logical question is “how often?”

The Frequency

I collected data for frequent flyer program devaluations from the year 2015 until now for the major five US airlines. For this dataset, I only considered redemption devaluations; I excluded elite program changes, the removal of free-stop overs, and similar perks that aren’t directly tied to the mileage redemption rate. Some of these devaluations were only for specific types of redemptions (for example, partner awards to Europe), but that didn’t matter for this study. If redemptions devalued in some way, they were included here.

Now, let’s go airline by airline, sorted by frequency of devaluation:

Delta (10 devaluations): February 2015, August 2016, August 2017, June 2018, March 2019, October 2020, February 2021, April 2022, October 2022, September 2023

United (6 devaluations): October 2016, November 2017, November 2019, April 2020, May 2023, April-May 2024

Southwest (5 devaluations): April 2015, April 2018, April 2021, January 2024, March 2025

Alaska (5 devaluations): March 2016, July 2018, October 2019, March 2023, March 2024

AA (3 devaluations): March 2016, April 2023, July 2025

Ok, now what’s the expectation value for a devaluation in each program, just taking the number of devaluations divided by the time period (10 years)?

AirlineDevaluation Time (Expectation Value)Standard Deviation
Delta1.00 years0.42 years
United1.67 years1.05 years
Southwest2.00 years0.88 years
Alaska2.00 years1.11 years
AA3.33 years1.82 years (sqrt(3/10))

What do I do with that?

Alright, how do you make this data actionable? Well let’s go back to my hand-wavey metric for when you should stop holding miles in a particular program: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation.

That means that I wouldn’t hold more Delta SkyMiles than I’m likely to redeem in the next 1.00 years, or at least the next 1.00 years after October 2023 (😬 Spoiler alert: It seems likely that we’re going to see another Delta devaluation soon.) It’s also yet another argument about why you should be holding flexible currencies that transfer multiple places and can be cashed out directly.

Good luck out there, and have a nice weekend!

Coming soon to Delta, probably.

  1. There are two new transfer bonuses:

    – American Express: 25% to Hilton Honors, making the ratio 10:25 through September 23
    – Capital One: 30% to Virgin Red, making the ratio 10:13 though October 1

    Both have some value for the right redemptions, neither is outstanding for a ZOMGWTFBBQ transfer.
  2. American Express has more links for adding employee cards (see yesterday for the Delta Business cards and the Business Gold and Platinum cards):

    – Business Green: 15,000 Membership Rewards after $4,000 spend in six months
    – Blue Business Plus: 15,000 Membership Rewards after $4,000 spend in six months

    Remember, there are phone-in offers with higher limits that don’t necessarily match the online offers. Both the online and phone-in offers are targeted per primary account.
  3. American Express also has a targeted offer for adding an authorized user to the personal Gold card:

    – Gold: 10,000 Membership Rewards after $2,000 spend in six months

    These will show up on the authorized user’s credit report if American Express can figure out who they are, and it’s also limited to one per primary account.
  4. Breeze has a promotion for 35% off of round-trip base fares with promo code GOLDEN for flights booked by Friday night and travel between September 10 and January 31, 2026 with some obvious black-out dates around the holidays.

Have a nice Wednesday friends!

The Wednesday Quad comes in hot.

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card sent out beginning of month offers via snail mail and email over the last week. Each offer is valid once a month for September, October, and November, and some have bonuses for getting all three months’ bonuses:

    – $25 monthly credit on $750 monthly, and a bonus $50 for hitting all three
    – $40 monthly credit with five $75+ transactions monthly
    – $50 monthly credit on $1,500 monthly, and a bonus $50 for hitting all three

    Yes, these stack with both of last month’s offers. No, this card isn’t available for new applications any more, sorry. (Thanks to birt, Jared, and K)
  2. American Express has new online for adding new employee cards, limit five per primary card:

    – Delta Business Gold: 5,000 SkyMiles with $1,000 spend in six months
    – Delta Business Platinum: 10,000 SkyMiles with $2,500 spend in six months
    – Delta Business Reserve: 20,000 SkyMiles with $4,000 spend in six months
    – Business Gold: 15,000 Membership Rewards with $4,000 spend in six months
    – Business Platinum: 15,000 Membership Rewards with $4,000 spend in six months

    Before you ask: No, you don’t have to choose the employee cards with annual fees with these offers.
  3. Alaska MileagePlan Atmos is changing its relationship with both Singapore Airlines and LATAM on October 1:

    – Reduced earning on tickets booked in September (LATAM) or September – December (Singapore) for travel through December 31 through any channel
    – No new Singapore award bookings starting on October 1, ditto with LATAM
    – No points earning unless tickets are booked directly via Alaska starting in 2026 for Singapore
    – No points earning regardless of booking channel on LATAM starting October 1

    This was bound to happen when Alaska joined oneworld, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t sting.
  4. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 back on $300 or more in Visa gift cards through Saturday. What sorcerers could have predicted this after they had the same deal on Mastercards last week? All of them, I think. Anyway:

    – Even multipliers of $300 give bigger discounts
    – Go for the lower-fee “Everywhere” cards if you can liquidate them

    These are Pathward / BlackHawkNetwork gift cards.

Gift card sale prediction sorcerers in action.

  1. Kroger stores have 4x fuel points on third party gift cards and on fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards tomorrow through Monday, coupon clip required.

    Amazon and gas fuel cards are excluded from 4x earning, but still earn 2x. Gift card resale rates are at a relative maxima, and fuel points prices aren’t bad now either.
  2. RobinHood, which really needs a separate stand alone post that basically says: “literally don’t do anything funding related with them even if it seems fun. Yes I know it seems ok, but it’s really not and they’ll liquidate your positions forcefully”, has two transfer bonuses for Gold members that are uncapped in theory:

    – Regular brokerage: 2% bonus for incoming funds through September 15
    – IRA: 2% (or 3% with margin) bonus for incoming funds through September 15

    Both require that you hold your stocks or funds at RobinHood for 5 years. I did the math guys: If you bring $100 Billion in funds, this is a $2 Billion money maker. (Thanks to DoC)
  3. On Monday, Bilt will have an “up to 100%” transfer bonus to Virgin Atlantic miles (you can see what “up to” means for you in the mobile app in the For You section), so you’ve got the weekend to earn Bilt Rewards if care about Virgin Atlantic.

    Should you care? If you think of Virgin Miles as being effectively a buy a coach ticket (award fees) and upgrade to business class with miles proposition (mileage rate) and live in a gateway city, it’s often a great option. For those of you that live in Lubbock or balk at paying more than ~$50 in award fees, it’s probably best to move along to the next thing. Also, coach redemptions are ok I guess.

Have a nice Thursday!

Average travel hacker sentiment for Virgin Red, but as a person.

  1. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s Q3 promotions for (1) 2,500 bonus points per paid stay between August 25 and November 30 on up to 10 stays, and (2) double points for paid stays between September 2 and November 30.
  2. The Bank of America Atmos Ascent Visa business has a new inflight sourced sign up bonus of 85,000 Atmos miles after $5,000 spend in three months, which is 5,000 miles more than the current public link. The personal card’s similar bonus is still available:

    – Ascent Personal at https://atmoscard85k.com/
    – Ascent Business at https://atmosbizvisa85k.com/

    Both require a flight attendant code (not to be confused with the flight attendant code), or most any six digit random number that starts with 10. (Thanks to Remster32)
  3. The Bank of America Atmos Summit Visa has a 105,000 Atmos miles bonus by applying by phone at 800-392-2775 with priority code GAATB2. The bonus is 5,000 miles higher than the public link, and the minimum spend is the same at $6,000+ in 90 days.
  4. Alaska has a 15% off of a flight promotional code after signing up for text alerts by texting FLY to 252752 by the end of the day. The code will be delivered tomorrow, and doesn’t work for first class tickets but does work on Hawaiian flights.
  5. JetBlue’s TrueBlue now offers redemptions on German carrier Condor, and the airlines have mileage earning reciprocity too. Pricing for North America to and from Europe:

    – 54,000 – 99,000 points
    – 19,000 – 39,000 points

    The difference in prices seems to be distance related, but we haven’t seen an official award chart or comprehensive data set to confirm that.
  6. Delta’s annual Seattle NFL smash-and-grab fest registration is open at 12status.com. Under the promotion, anyone in Washington, or anyone “in” Washington gets:

    – 1x SkyMiles for every Seattle Seahawks passing yard
    – Zone 5 boarding from Seattle airport

    Delta has learned what GeoIP is so you may need a VPN to explore. (Thanks to notsofedexy).

Happy Wednesday!

The flight attendant code, illustrated.

  1. Southwest has a promotional companion pass valid for travel between January 6, 2026 and March 6, 2026. To earn it:

    – Register at this link, or at the bottom of your ‘My Account’ page
    – Book a two one-ways or one round-trip by Thursday, non basic economy
    – Fly by November 15

    Existing bookings don’t count. Both paid and award tickets are eligible.
  2. Hy-Vee stores have $10 off of $150 in Visa and Mastercard gift cards through Monday. Hy-Vee $10 off coupons typically work in multiples, always be probing.

    These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
  3. More Citi cards can transfer to AA Advantage miles:

    – The Strata, Preferred, Double Cash, and Custom Cash transfer at 1:0.7
    – The Strata Premier, Strata Elite, and Prestige cards transfer at 1:1

    (Thanks to DoC)
  4. Citi ThankYou Points has a 25% transfer bonus to Wyndham Rewards through September 20. In semi-related news, Wyndham Vacasa booking windows have dropped to six months.
  5. American Express offers has a targeted offer for $180 back on $1,200+ at Eva Air for flights originating in the US. It may be possible to turn this into discount Southwest Airlines travel through their interline agreement announced yesterday if you want to make life hard and ticket changes even more frustrating.
  6. Capital One Shopping has targeted referral bonuses that offer $40 to both the referrer and referred.

    Capital One Shopping has gotten better about recognizing self-referrals, but good hygiene continues to pay dividends.
  7. Singapore Airlines changed award redemption rates. Most rates are going up 5%-10%, though Asia and South Pacific redemptions drop 5% in price. Flights to Africa and the Middle East are getting 10-20% increases, and there’s new, variable pricing for non-saver awards.

    PSA to travel bloggers: It’s possible to summarize this sort of thing in less than 1,250 words, I promise.

Happy Tuesday!

Another helpful PSA.

  1. Do this now: Register for a targeted United MilePlay promotion. I got “Book and take a trip* in a premium seat three times to earn 50,000 bonus miles.”

    What’s that asterisk, you say? Apparently a trip only counts if it costs $600+ before taxes and fees.
  2. The American Express Platinum and Business Platinum cards continue their march toward the soft embrace of mediocrity, but now at a higher cost to make up for it? On September 18, the cards will:

    – Offer a January – June $300 FHR or THC stay credit
    – Offer a July – December $300 FHR or THC stay credit
    – Increase the annual fee to $895
    – Restrict the 35% points rebate to only the selected airline (Business / First flights on other airlines won’t rebate)

    If your card renewal date is post September 18, I think you’ll be subject to the higher annual fee although that’s not yet confirmed. If you think these changes suck, you and I think alike. If you’re a serial FHR user or abuser who never flies paid premium cabins outside of a single US airline, there’s value here outside of a sign up bonus I suppose. (Thanks to DDG)
  3. We have details for Alaska’s new premiums credit card based on a leaked terms and conditions PDF. The likely sign-up bonus is 105,000 miles and a global 25,000 point companion award after $6,000+ spend in 90 days. The card’s important vitals:

    – Annual fee: $395
    – 3x on Alaska and Hawaiian flights
    – 3x on dining and foreign purchases, 1x elsewhere
    – 10% points bonus with an “eligible” Bank of America account
    – 0.5x status points (1 per $2 spent, regardless of multiplier)
    – 10,000 status points annually
    – Two lounge and WiFi passes every quarter
    – Free same-day changes
    – Global 100,000 companion award after $60,000 spend each card member year

    The actionable part of this rumorlet? Start lowering credit lines and closing cards as necessary to make approvals easy if you want this card, especially because you can probably spend your way toward top status. If you’re a hoser gamer with a business, maybe that’s even better.

Have a nice weekend!

Now just make this a business.

  1. AA’s status match, err I guess “Instant Status Pass”™®©, is back. Matchers from other programs will have status for four months, and a fast track to qualification for the current elite year.

    The current program awards top-tier Executive Platinum status for Delta Diamonds and United 1Ks too. (Thanks to yoshi)
  2. AA and Hyatt’s reciprocal elite status match and fast track programs are back too:

    – Hyatt status for AA elites (register by October 31)
    – AA status for Hyatt elites, targeted (register by September 4)

    You can link your Hyatt and AA programs here if you haven’t already done so. (Thanks to MikeDCA)
  3. Stater Bros stores have $10 off of groceries in the same transaction as $50+ in Visa or Mastercard gift cards through August 12.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. Alaska has a new MileagePlan membership promotion for a $25 or $50 discount code depending on your residence running through December 31:

    – $50 for Alaska, California, or Hawaii residents
    – $25 for everyone else

    Let me preface this by saying I don’t think $50 off of an Alaska is worth gaming and I wouldn’t risk my Alaska loyalty account over $50 either, but let’s pour one out for all the extra Alaska accounts created for us from Bank of America’s top notch IT integration.
  5. Air Canada’s Aeroplan is:

    – Introducing three new mileage acronyms: status qualifying credits (SQCs), status qualifying segments (SQSs), and status qualifying dollars (SQDs)
    – Awarding redeemable miles based on ticket cost
    – Giving 25k status for new Aeroplan cardmembers
    – Awarding 35k status with $75,000 spend on the Aeroplan Mastercard annually

    I had a really hard time not writing ‘stupid’ instead of ‘status’ for each of those new acronyms, but I held back. I do hope going forward your internal monologue will read the first ‘S’ in those acronyms as ‘stupid’ though.
  6. Like the Barclays JetBlue Business Mastercard mentioned yesterday, two Barclays Jetblue personal Mastercards also have increased sign-up bonuses:

    – JetBlue Premier: 80,000 TrueBlue miles and 5 tiles after $5,000 spend in 90 days
    – JetBlue Plus: 60,000+20,000 TrueBlue miles after $1,000 spend in the first 90 days and $7,000 spend in the first year

    Both also require that you pay the annual fee because reasons.

Always be probing.

SQS indeed.