1. Citi ThankYou Points currently are transferring to Accor ALL at a 1:1 ratio. With current exchange rates and a fixed value of two eurocents per point, this is a cash out of ~2.32 cents per point. I’m not here to tell you what to do, but if you can use these points you’ll be hard pressed to find many better ThankYou Points cash-outs.

    This hasn’t been announced and I’m guessing it’s not long for the world, much like the relative anonymity of the Astronomer executive team at the start of last week. Things to remember:

    – Accor points expire after 12 months unless you earn more points
    – Accor points transfer at 1:1 or better to some airline programs

    There’s an Accor primer here since there’s not a ton of information about the program on affiliate blogs, presumably because Accor doesn’t pay them. (Thanks to Andy N)
  2. Citi ThankYou Points has a 25% transfer bonus to the Leader’s Club hotel program through August 23. This one is definitely intentional.
  3. Staples has fee-free $200 Visa gift cards through Saturday, limit nine per transaction. Use your rizz to try for back-to-back transactions if you have a good liquidation.

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Happy Monday!

Official Staples shopping shirt for July 20-27.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is a Friday guest post in a short summer series running on Fridays while I’m traveling. Today’s author is irieriley, a manufactured spend gigachad who’s been featured on the blog multiple times in the past.

One of the most exciting parts of this hobby is the emergence of a new play. When you find something, especially if it’s particularly lucrative, it’s tempting to start scribbling some ballpark math on the back of a cocktail napkin. 

After all, you need to start planning what color of Lambo you’re going to buy when you hit this play every day to the deposit limit for the next year straight. There’s no way this play won’t last forever, right?

Unfortunately, nothing actually lasts forever in manufactured spend (MS) and plays die without warning. For example, a growth stage fintech that lets you make “kalls” on election results will quickly wonder why they are paying so much interchange (and how “debit cards only” didn’t actually apply) to users that aren’t profitable. 

Even archaic financial institutions founded in the 1800s will eventually have a Western region VP of accounting realize they’re absolutely hemorrhaging money.

Knowing that lucrative plays have a finite lifespan from the second they’re discovered, here’s my advice. Outside of very rare situations (i.e. causing a shutdown at Amex or your primary hub, and also, don’t break the law, for obvious reasons), you will regret not going hard on a target vs. pacing yourself, trying to keep it alive long-term. 

You may not be hitting it hard, but whales, miracle doctors, and their small army of players are, and you’re collateral damage. Make your money, accept the shutdown because you aren’t a profitable customer, and move on (hopefully with an increased balance that matches your napkin optimism).

I speak from experience on counting my chickens too early. 2 years ago, I did some napkin math on profit based on maximizing employee card slots across Amex charge cards for myself and P2, since we had been targeted for them a ton in the months preceding. Guess who has virtually never been targeted to add ECs since that exercise?

I ended up making more money that year than my napkin math suggested, through entirely different plays. And yes, those plays are all dead now, too. But as my P2 loves to say, “there always seems to be a new scheme around the corner when you’re sad about one dying”. Stay frosty, my friends.

– irieriley

Pictured: a whale opening the gullet to inhale 100k lbs of chicken, er, krill.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s promotion for triple points at hotels in Latin America and the Caribbean for stays in August, September, and October.
  2. The Chase Aeroplan card, the hot honey of credit cards, has an increased sign-up bonus of 85,000 Aeroplan miles after $4,000 spend in three months.

    If you hit that all in the 3x grocery category, you’ll have 97,000 Aeroplan miles which is almost enough for a Lufthansa First Class ticket.
  3. The (hopefully temporarily) discontinued Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, the (hopefully) 2022 Sriracha of credit cards, sent mid-month offers out for online spend. This round:

    – $100 statement credit with $1,000+ cumulative
    – $45 statement credit with $500+ cumulative

    (Thanks to SPX and shamuel)
  4. The Alaska Airlines shopping portal has a “two days after Bastille Day” celebration bonus of 1,000 MileagePlan miles after $550+ spend by August 4.
  5. Kroger has a 4x fuel points promotion on third party gift cards starting on Friday, and running all the way through *checks notes* Friday night. Amazon gift cards remain excluded.
  6. American Express Offers has an offer for $80 off of $400+ at MGM properties by September 25. Two things:

    – Return fraud is still return fraud
    – If you’re going to stick it to a company, a casino is a great choice

    This may not be the triumphant return of the dirty castle that some churners mourn, but it’s something.
  7. Yesterday, an old bill payment service finally realized it’s been doubling down on payments inadvertently and started reversing deposits in waves. I know you didn’t ask for my advice, but I’m going to share it anyway: To avoid problems with both the payment service and your banks, make sure the reversal goes smoothly.

Happy Thursday!

Moldly Interesting fact: Old Sriracha gets moldy, sorry SYWR fans.

Introduction

Last week for Prime Day (which spans multiple days obviously), the American Express Amazon Business Prime card had a $200 sign-up bonus. That shouldn’t have been news unless there were referral or resurrection shenanigans afoot, but somehow it still was. The Chase Amazon Prime Visa had a sign up bonus of $250 too, but shouldn’t have been news either. Given that context, what sign-up bonus is news? Or, even better, when is it worthwhile signing up for a card?

The Factors

The calculus of a new card for a churner are mainly:

  • A hard pull on your credit report (cost)
  • A new credit line on your credit report (cost)
  • Taking up a credit card slot at a bank (cost)
  • Sign-up bonus (benefit)
  • Ongoing card benefits (I mean, it’s in the name)
  • Good bonus category multipliers for manufactured spenders
  • Impressing your friends and waitstaff when you pay for dinner with a Toys R Us cobranded credit card (benefit)

Turning that into the Value Equation

The best bonuses at AmEx, Capital One, and Chase will be worth ~$2,000-$3,000 after annual fees with hand waivey math. For Citi, Bank of America, US Bank, and your average credit union $750 – $1,250 are typical.

The best unlimited category bonus cards give a cash out value of ~3% – 6%+, and much more with category capped or spend limited bonuses.

The type of game you play makes one of these two factors matter a lot more than the other, but both provide a basis for when you should get a card:

  • If sign up bonuses are the bigger part of your earn, make sure you’re getting a value of at least
    • $750+ for US Bank, Citi, Bank of America, or a random credit union personal card
    • $1,250+ for AmEx, Chase, or Capital One
  • If manufactured spend is the bigger part, shoot for
    • 3x or 3% minimum return

Back to these Amazon cards that led the story – it’s really not hard for most people to get Amazon gift cards at a discount of at least 5%, even more so if you have easy access to a Kroger. So, I’m not sure the earn argument is valid either. But you do you, I’m sure there are angles out there that I don’t see.

Happy Wednesday!

“Shouldn’t have been but still was” news isn’t new.

  1. The Ramp Business Visa card has a heightened sign-up bonus via referrals of $1,500 after $1,000 spend. You’ll need a business email account, and you’ll have to link a business checking account with Plaid to confirm that your business has $25,000 in funds too.

    What’s a business email account? One that doesn’t end in gmail.com, hotmail.com, emailbarn.com, freeinbox.com, ieatbonvoy.com, or similar. (Thanks to DoC)
  2. There are shopping portal bonuses announced yesterday to celebrate Bastille Day (I guess?):

    United: 2,500 MileagePlus miles after $600+ in spend by August 11
    Southwest: 2,000 Rapid Rewards miles after $500 in spend by August 11

    Giftcards.com remains a viable option.
  3. Barclays JetBlue cardholders have a widely targeted offer for 5x on groceries, 4x at gas and drug stores, and 10x for JetBlue ecosystem charges, limited to 10,000 points extra above regular earning. (Thanks to Ok-Anywhere6998)

A churner tried to use [email protected] with Ramp.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s promotion for 777 bonus points per night at casino hotels through September 30. (Un)fortunately, the dirty castle is no longer part of Hyatt’s portfolio and the Rio is a poor stand-in.
  2. Do this now: Make backup bookings for any existing Advantage car rental reservations because they may be in the midst of collapse.
  3. Staples has fee-free $200 Mastercards in store through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. US Bank has a $450 checking bonus for new Smartly checking accounts with $8,000+ spread over two direct deposits, or over two “direct deposits”, the first of which has to happen in 30 days. This is mainly interesting for establishing a Smartly account for higher payouts on the related but different US Bank Smartly credit card.

    If you’re not in US Bank’s footprint, opening a brokerage account first will get your foot in the door for other products.
  5. Bilt Blit is losing their relationship with Wells Fargo in favor of Cardless with three tiers of cards in (probably) June 2026. After the transition, it’ll probably switch from the Mastercard network to the American Express network. Is that a net positive or negative? Depends on your game I suppose, but at least Cardless dropped its one card per lifetime rule.
  6. American Express Offers has a targeted offer for $40 off of $200+ at Caesars through October 31.

Happy Monday friends!

From US Bank’s FAQ: Even they understand that direct deposits are often “direct deposits”

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is a Friday guest post in a short summer series running on Fridays while I’m traveling. Today’s author is the juxtaposition of a Prius mixed with an accounting Professor and generally needs no introduction but will get one anyway: Florian.

In the churning world expectation value (EV) and math are afterthoughts based on my experience in many semi-private groups.

There are a few things to remember:

Knowing your EV and return on investment (ROI) can help you better than going with your gut or your emotions, which both bring the dilemma “Should I risk getting  shutdown for this?”

For example, Synchrony doesn’t like it when one gamer goes on a cycling spree like a drone buzzing over its target, many do this, without further consideration. Let’s do  some math to illustrate the best outcome:

  • Assume your best game is buying espresso form JerrryBrothers with your Venmo for 3%
  • Assume you also buy espresso with other Synchrony cards that earn less
  • Assume you can earn more on the payment side, maybe 2%
  • If you spend $40,000 per month and earn a blended average of 3%, you’re earning $1,200 monthly

That’s $1,200 a month for the value of your Synchrony relationship. Assuming one spends month a year in Isle of Man, you’ll net 11 * $1,200 , or $13,200.

If you’re shut down though and it takes you 8 months to get back in, that’s about $9,600.

So, if your edge or game is worth losing $9,600 if it fails then go for it. Remember though, the less you know the more the risk, as you don’t know if and when you get back in.

There are many such games with similar analyses, especially like getting kicked out of Target world or Costco world which might upset P2. You can’t price this risk, you want the P2 happy, 

I guess the message is: Always probe like a bot on or not a bot, and knowing your EV and ROI helps you make better decisions.

– Florian

Pictured: The decoder ring used to translate today’s post from Florianish, which is a loose derivate of English, to English, which is the most unstructured language I know of.

  1. The Citi AAdvantage Platinum Select personal Mastercard has a heightened offer of 80,000 AA miles after $3,500 spend in four months, and the annual fee is waived for the first year.
  2. Kroger stores have a 4x fuel points sale on third party gift cards excluding Amazon, and fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards tomorrow only.

    For those keeping track at home: Kroger had more days with 4x fuel points earning in the last two months than days without. In a turn everyone could have predicted, that’s flooded the fuel points market pushing points rates way down.
  3. Canadian carrier Porter Airlines tickets can now be booked with Alaska MileagePlan. Carry-on bags are included. (Thanks to FM)

Happy Thursday!

The inspiration for this summer’s Kroger “(Almost) Everyday Sale Price” 4x promotions.