It’s Time to Re-think the Value of American Express Credits

Introduction

An important aspect of offsetting an annual fee on premium American Express cards is creative use of credits like:

• $400 annual Dell Credits (Business Platinum)
• $200 annual airline incidental credits (all Platinums)
• $10/$15/$35 monthly Uber credits (personal Golds and Platinums)

The calculus for me on the on an annual fee’s effective credit offset involves a discount factor representing what the credit is actually worth based on whether I can resell something, whether I’d actually spend that money either way, and how much work I have to put in to liquidate the credit. It also involves the credit face value, and considerations like a double or triple dip.

Let’s walk through a concrete example with the Business Platinum card, assuming we opened it in late November or early December. For a single year’s annual fee, the main credits are:

• -$695 annual fee (no discount) = -$695
• +$800 Dell credits (25% discount) = +$600
• +$600 Airline incidental credit (20% discount) = +$480
• Net: -$695+$600+$480 = $385

Ignoring things like Adobe, Indeed, and Clear credits, which are harder to game, the card’s fees are net positive.

News

Two news items came up over the last week that conspire to change this calculus:

1. Dell, Adobe, and Indeed credits now show an end date of 12/31/2024
2. AmEx announced a refresh of 40 products globally next year in Friday’s earnings call

Combining the two and reading the between the lines, I think it’s safe to say that the likelihood of Dell, Adobe, and Indeed going away in 2025 is at least 2/3. Updating the above math for a triple dip in December 2024 to subtract 2/3 of the Dell credits in 2025 and beyond (given that it’s likely going away) gives a net annual fee of -$695 + $200 + $400 * (1/3) + $480 = +$118. So, the value from those credits with today’s lens has fallen, though remains positive.

Predictions

Yogi Berra famously said “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” He’s right, and I think my crystal ball is at least as opaque as average so, yeah. Nonetheless, I’m going to predict with broad strokes based on the previous news items:

• Credits that don’t have an analog on other premium credit cards from Chase, Capital One, Bank of America, Citi, or US Bank are going to get the axe for 2025
• Credits that are almost certainly paid for by a retailer that don’t lead to additional purchases will be refreshed away, like Saks, for 2025
• Credits that bring new incremental revenue to a retailer will stick around, like Uber and Equinox
• We’re going to see more monthly or quarterly credits, and fewer annual or semi-annual credits

Will the cards still be worth it? It depends on what kind of AmEx user you are: If the annual credits represent a significant source of value for premium cards, you’re in a tougher spot. If they don’t because you’re taking advantage of category bonuses, employee cards, offers, and other games, then it’s annoying but not a game changer.

Good luck!

2025’s refreshed American Express Green card monthly coupon credit.