EDITOR’S NOTE: We have a bonus guest post today from Jim – it’d have been better if it came out before December 31 for the sake of some states estimated tax payment due dates, but an oversight on Matt’s part prevented that. Jim is a consummate networker turned churner and attacks problems in unique ways. Special thanks for the guest post!
For those of you searching for something to like about the Big Beautiful (for the Rich) Tax Bill, I may have something:
The bill increases the amount of state taxes you can deduct from $10,000 to $40,000.
This makes the easiest best manufactured spend play (overpaying your estimated taxes by credit card and getting a refund, manufacturing spend at a cost of 1.8%) even better if you can overpay your state income taxes, because you can reduce your Federal income tax by tens of thousands of deductible State income tax overpayments. (Granted it is a temporary reduction for your 2025 taxes as you will now have taxable income from your refund for your 2026 taxes.)
If you are in a non-income tax State, or if you already have $40,000 in State tax deductions, you can still get manufactured spend benefits by paying your estimated tax payments on your Federal Income tax, you just won’t get the tax benefits.
The timing: Overpay State estimated taxes for 2025 by their due date (the due date depends on your state), so they are deductible. If you missed this year, you can do it next year. Then, overpay your Federal estimated tax payments: before January 15, 2026 (last date you can make estimated tax payments). Finally, overpay 2025 Federal Income tax payments before April 15, 2026. In either event you should file as soon as you can to get your refund, preferably electronically, which is quicker.
The risk: I have been doing this for years to the tune of tens of thousands (last year ~$20,000 state refund, $55,000 federal refund), and I’ve talked to others into doing this. I have been reading ~20 points/miles blogs and in that time I’ve heard of 2 problems, which were both huge ($70,000 or so) overpayments and both of which resulted in delayed refunds. It’s unclear if this was due to overpaying or to other issues. However, as Matt says: “I am not a tax advisor and I am certainly not your tax advisor.”
And, although this is about as low of a risk of an American Express RAT attacks as it gets, nothing in manufactured spend has 0 risk. (Speaking of low RAT risk plays, you can buy a no-lifetime language (NLL) mailer that lets you open a Business Platinum and a Business Gold every 90 days and avoids American Express’s once in lifetime language. (It doesn’t t evade American Express’s limits of one card of the same type every 90 days and two cards of any type every 90 days though.)
If you’re looking for channels for mailers and don’t have access, you can reach out to me for help. Emailing me is also my incredibly high tech way to subscribe to my occasional People’s Points emails which are kind of like MEAB guest posts, but safer for those with coulrophobia.
– Jim
There’s no coulrophobia here.