AirFrance / KLM’s FlyingBlue released its June promo awards. US Cities include Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, New York, Seattle, San Jose, and Washington DC. Economy flights are 18,750 miles each way, and business class flights …. exist at absurdly priced levels.
Summer to Europe via SkyTeam in business looks bleak.
The resale market for Giant Eagle points is tiny, but with the right finesse this is effectively a 10% rebate plus grocery store credit card spend.
Best Western has promotion for 2,500 bonus points per night between July 1 and 7 at US and Canadian properties, registration required, limit 10,000 points. If you need a sales pitch to entice you to book: I’ve only heard of one opaque Best Western swimming pool this year.
Happy Wednesday!
“Opaque blue” beats almost any other opaque color in a pool at least.
United has a 25% incoming transfer bonus for hotel points, registration required. The most valuable program for this promotion is Marriott Bonvoy (the first time in recorded history that someone wrote this seriously) which will transfer at a ratio of 1,200:700 when points are moved in 20,000 mile increments.
Qatar usually posts bonus Avios within a couple of minutes of transfer, though the terms and conditions say it could take 6-8 weeks. There’s a joke in there.
The Citi ThankYou Mastercard, which is unfortunately no longer available for new applicants, sent new beginning of month offers:
– Make eight purchases of $75+ for a $80 statement credit, once a month through August (total $240) – Make five purchases of $75+ for a $65 statement credit, once a month through August (total $195) – Earn 1,000 extra ThankYou Points for $500+ purchases, up to two times through June 30
For those keeping score at home, this is an absolutely terrible value, but there is utility in (1) top-offs and (2) resetting mileage expiration, especially for those without a stash of Ultimate Rewards which still has 55% transfer bonus.
The Incomm gift card sites have fee-free $50+ gift card promo codes:
I feel like they’re trying to tell us that something is imminent with their promo code names, but what do I know? Limits on these sites are $10,000 per rolling 24 hours and they won’t earn points or count for a sign-up bonus with American Express cards.
These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards.
Also, yes, some people got credit line increases on some of their credit cards this weekend and somehow that’s big news elsewhere. Cool, let’s go content monster!
Next up on the content monster: Allan Savory had two views in 1947.
Since March-ish (Smarch), both American Express and Chase have been shutting down some of the biggest gamers in the sport. They’re looking different than past shutdowns, so let’s document some new behaviors starting today with Chase.
Shutdown: What of the Ultimate Rewards?
In recent years when you’ve been shutdown by Chase, they’ve given you 30 days (or 90 in New York) to cash out your points. That’s all changed though; we’ve seen two new recent behaviors with points, neither of which matches what used to happen:
Some accounts have points forfeited immediately (and a few of those will have a line-item that says “courtesy adjustment” to add insult to injury)
Some accounts have points cashed out at 1.0 cents immediately
The old 30 day point rule isn’t around like it used to be, at least for the big guns. There’s also varying behavior on what happens with pending points that post after you’ve been shutdown. Again, you’ve got two possibilities, and what happened with your stash of points seems to have no bearing on what happens with your pending points. Your pending points will either:
Be transferrable when they post
Forfeited
If you’re shutdown, a random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your posted points, and a different random number generator seems to choose which action Chase will take with your pending points. What’s the random number generator? I think a team of humans is handling these cases, and they’re not completely consistent with one another.
The Deposit Accounts
Avoiding Chase deposit accounts is manufactured spend 101, but not everyone follows that advice. For recent shutdowns of cardholders with deposit accounts we’ve seen a bit of random behavior there too:
Some shutdown cardholders have their deposit accounts stick around
Some shutdown cardholders have all of their deposit accounts closed
Some shutdown cardholders see some of their deposit accounts closed
I think the varied behavior here is a further indication that we’re dealing with a team of humans that isn’t completely consistent.
The Causes
The cause for most of the shutdowns is probably pretty obvious if you spend a few minutes thinking about how one might scale, then spend a few minutes thinking about how you might scale your scale, but let’s just say it boils down to one or both of:
Earning lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase
Redeeming lots and lots of points in a way that’s not sustainable for Chase
If that’s not enough and you like bad translations, there’s public info on some of these recent Chase shutdowns at UCSF.
Avoiding The Shutdowns
If you’re a heavy-hitting whale that’s not yet shutdown at Chase, you probably know that what you’re doing is moving toward a brick wall, and you’re probably doing your best to earn as much as you can before the wall wants its dues. A common sentiment amongst most affected by the shutdowns seems to be “it was worth it”.
If you’re not a heavy-hitting whale, this probably isn’t something you need to be super concerned about.
The Permanence
If you were shutdown, what does getting back in look like? Well, you might be surprised to learn that it seems random:
Some people get back (seemingly-permanently) after waiting a month or two
Some people get back after waiting, only to have the cards cancelled shortly after activation
Some people are instantly denied or have approvals rescinded before cards can be activated
Again, the same process governing the other aspects of recent shutdowns is probably governing these too.
Mini-Analysis
I’ve avoided mentioning something because I largely don’t agree with it, but, let’s mention it anyway: there’s rampant speculation that the rise of AI has given Chase an easy way to find the gamers. The only evidence I can see for this is the inconsistency because AI is currently great at that, but I genuinely think that’s just humans doing human things.
I think what’s new and why we’re seeing new waves and behaviors is that we recently got:
Uncapped 8x earning
Lots of 2 cents per point redemptions
Taken together at volume, those things probably caused a big enough blip on someone’s radar to have a team look into what was going on. But what do I know?
Have a nice weekend friends!
Chase’s equipment shows why it was hard to see the blip before we arrived at “8x*2cpp = bad”.
The Citi Custom Cash Mastercard is being discontinued. It’s a great card for 5x at $500 spend a month, but a nearly useless card for the modern heavy hitter. Still, you’ve got (reportedly) until the end of the week to product change if you want more of these in your life. (Thanks to David)
– You’ve still got time to earn before Monday – TAP Miles&Go doesn’t give you additional saver availability on TAP metal, and their award chart isn’t great, especially in business, though there are a few award prices that beat US carrier pricing (Thanks to Gary at VFTW for corrections here)
– 10% cash back at Hiltons in the US, up to $650 spend – 7% cash back at Hyatt House and Hyatt Studios, up to $400 spend – 7% cash back at Hyatt Places, up to $400 spend – 10% cash back at Marriott properties, up to $800 spend
Each of these expires on June 30, and as usual the simplest gamer move is gift cards at the front desk.
For those keeping track at home, it took until the end of May before we had a promotion for travel in 2027. It’s closer than in may appear. Also for those keeping track at home, we’re taking a pass on this week’s edition of Breeze Route Bingo™ while we find more obscure cities before Breeze does. Stay tuned!
Happy Wednesday!
Predicting Breeze’s next city by sorting populations in ascending order.
This Choice program usually leads to a lot of questions, so let me address the common ones: yes, no, no, the Ascend Collection and/or Scandinavia. What are the common questions? That’s an exercise left for the reader.
These are Pathward / BlackHawk Network gift cards, and anecdotally the death of the floosies has pushed competition for these up. Also, yes these can still be liquidated in lots of ways, always be probing.
Memorial Day, like Labor Day, Mother’s Day, Christmas, National Bubble Bath Day, and a few other favorites, typically presents a great opportunity for one-off manufactured spend and travel hacking deals. We’ll see opportunities like:
Gift cards for sale under spot resale prices
Travel packages priced at relative minima
Extra inventory for award redemptions
Old apple products for really cheap
Broadly speaking, if you play the game today, you’ve got two choices:
Stick with what you know and can earn on any other day
Follow slickdeals, deal blogs, chatrooms, reselling slacks, and everything else to find great quick hits like those mentioned above
Either works obviously, but when you’ve built a war chest of manufactured spend volume, you’re probably going to earn more by sticking with what you know then you’ll earn or save by staying in front of a computer looking for today’s deals all day. So, unless you’re in this for the chase and the thrill of the new deal, consider spending your time today either doing what you normally do or learning more about how to build your war chest.
Or, we can summarize this post simply as:
Try and get the expected value of what you know bigger than the expected value of today’s quick hits.
