Introduction

How many miles should you hold in a loyalty account before you start liquidating them or choosing to earn something else instead? My hand-wavey answer is: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation. Of course, we don’t really know when the next devaluation will happen, but we can look into the last 10 years to try and find patterns on a program specific level.

Why Programs Devalue

Before we do that, let’s remind ourselves why devaluations happen:

  • Inflation happens, and mileage earning is tied to prices
  • Airline CASM increases over time
  • Hotel CPOR increases over time
  • Devaluing a currency helps a balance sheet

Devaluations suck, but they’re entirely predictable over time. If we take as a given that programs will devalue, the next logical question is “how often?”

The Frequency

I collected data for frequent flyer program devaluations from the year 2015 until now for the major five US airlines. For this dataset, I only considered redemption devaluations; I excluded elite program changes, the removal of free-stop overs, and similar perks that aren’t directly tied to the mileage redemption rate. Some of these devaluations were only for specific types of redemptions (for example, partner awards to Europe), but that didn’t matter for this study. If redemptions devalued in some way, they were included here.

Now, let’s go airline by airline, sorted by frequency of devaluation:

Delta (10 devaluations): February 2015, August 2016, August 2017, June 2018, March 2019, October 2020, February 2021, April 2022, October 2022, September 2023

United (6 devaluations): October 2016, November 2017, November 2019, April 2020, May 2023, April-May 2024

Southwest (5 devaluations): April 2015, April 2018, April 2021, January 2024, March 2025

Alaska (5 devaluations): March 2016, July 2018, October 2019, March 2023, March 2024

AA (2 devaluations): March 2016, April 2023

Ok, now what’s the expectation value for a devaluation in each program, just taking the number of devaluations divided by the time period (10 years)?

AirlineDevaluation Time (Expectation Value)Standard Deviation
Delta1.00 years0.42 years
United1.67 years1.05 years
Southwest2.00 years0.88 years
Alaska2.00 years1.11 years
AA5.00 years2.23 years (sqrt(5))

What do I do with that?

Alright, how do you make this data actionable? Well let’s go back to my hand-wavey metric for when you should stop holding miles in a particular program: Hold as many as you’ll redeem between now and the next devaluation.

That means that I wouldn’t hold more Delta SkyMiles than I’m likely to redeem in the next 1.00 years, or at least the next 1.00 years after October 2023 (😬 Spoiler alert: It seems likely that we’re going to see another Delta devaluation soon.) It’s also yet another argument about why you should be holding flexible currencies that transfer multiple places and can be cashed out directly.

Good luck out there, and have a nice weekend!

Coming soon to Delta, probably.

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s targeted promotion for up to 20,000 bonus points on stays at Hyatt Regency properties through November 23. For the sole purpose of annoying you, they’re making you register through the mobile app though (Account → Offers for You).
  2. The Chase British Airways Visa personal card has increased sign-up bonus of 100,000 Avios after $7,500 spend in six months. The $95 annual fee is not waived in the first year.

    Normally I’d just get an Ink, but there’s value in this card with (1) an award companion pass valid for all cabins on British Airways metal after $30,000 spend, (2) a 10% discount on paid British Airways fares, and (3) a $100-$200 statement credit for award fees per booking, but maxed out at $600 per year.
  3. The Synchrony Virgin Red Mastercard has an increased sign-up bonus of 75,000 points after $4,000 spend in three months. The bonus is only valid through tomorrow night, and is an all-time high. The card earns 2x at grocery, dining, and other less interesting categories.

    If you think this card is a snooze-fest, you may want to take another look, at least if you live near an airport served by Virgin Atlantic or by a Virgin Hotel.
  4. Stater Bros grocery stores have an instant $10 off of groceries promotion with a $50 One4All Ultimate gift card, which can be converted to Home Depot, until October 7 (!). This one requires a physical coupon available both in store and via mailer. (Thanks to GCA)
  5. A quick, unfortunate timely tip for people axed by Synchrony yesterday: Apply for the same card quickly, you’ll probably be approved.
  6. Rove Miles has two hotel stay promotions for your first booking through the platform:

    – 2,500 bonus miles on a $250+ hotel booking with promo code STAYCATION
    – 5,000 bonus miles on a $500+ hotel booking with promo code BACKTOSCHOOL

    Rove already earns 10x-20x miles for hotel stays, so for the right use case there’s value here, but if you’re never paying cash for hotels, this probably doesn’t move the needle. If you’re going to sign-up for Rove, use a referral link and both the referrer and referred will get 1,000 bonus miles and there’s an extra 10% boost on earning for the referrer.

Happy Thursday!

The average churner’s picture of the Virgin Red Mastercard.

  1. There are two new transfer bonuses:

    – American Express: 25% to Hilton Honors, making the ratio 10:25 through September 23
    – Capital One: 30% to Virgin Red, making the ratio 10:13 though October 1

    Both have some value for the right redemptions, neither is outstanding for a ZOMGWTFBBQ transfer.
  2. American Express has more links for adding employee cards (see yesterday for the Delta Business cards and the Business Gold and Platinum cards):

    – Business Green: 15,000 Membership Rewards after $4,000 spend in six months
    – Blue Business Plus: 15,000 Membership Rewards after $4,000 spend in six months

    Remember, there are phone-in offers with higher limits that don’t necessarily match the online offers. Both the online and phone-in offers are targeted per primary account.
  3. American Express also has a targeted offer for adding an authorized user to the personal Gold card:

    – Gold: 10,000 Membership Rewards after $2,000 spend in six months

    These will show up on the authorized user’s credit report if American Express can figure out who they are, and it’s also limited to one per primary account.
  4. Breeze has a promotion for 35% off of round-trip base fares with promo code GOLDEN for flights booked by Friday night and travel between September 10 and January 31, 2026 with some obvious black-out dates around the holidays.

Have a nice Wednesday friends!

The Wednesday Quad comes in hot.

  1. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card sent out beginning of month offers via snail mail and email over the last week. Each offer is valid once a month for September, October, and November, and some have bonuses for getting all three months’ bonuses:

    – $25 monthly credit on $750 monthly, and a bonus $50 for hitting all three
    – $40 monthly credit with five $75+ transactions monthly
    – $50 monthly credit on $1,500 monthly, and a bonus $50 for hitting all three

    Yes, these stack with both of last month’s offers. No, this card isn’t available for new applications any more, sorry. (Thanks to birt, Jared, and K)
  2. American Express has new online for adding new employee cards, limit five per primary card:

    – Delta Business Gold: 5,000 SkyMiles with $1,000 spend in six months
    – Delta Business Platinum: 10,000 SkyMiles with $2,500 spend in six months
    – Delta Business Reserve: 20,000 SkyMiles with $4,000 spend in six months
    – Business Gold: 15,000 Membership Rewards with $4,000 spend in six months
    – Business Platinum: 15,000 Membership Rewards with $4,000 spend in six months

    Before you ask: No, you don’t have to choose the employee cards with annual fees with these offers.
  3. Alaska MileagePlan Atmos is changing its relationship with both Singapore Airlines and LATAM on October 1:

    – Reduced earning on tickets booked in September (LATAM) or September – December (Singapore) for travel through December 31 through any channel
    – No new Singapore award bookings starting on October 1, ditto with LATAM
    – No points earning unless tickets are booked directly via Alaska starting in 2026 for Singapore
    – No points earning regardless of booking channel on LATAM starting October 1

    This was bound to happen when Alaska joined oneworld, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t sting.
  4. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 back on $300 or more in Visa gift cards through Saturday. What sorcerers could have predicted this after they had the same deal on Mastercards last week? All of them, I think. Anyway:

    – Even multipliers of $300 give bigger discounts
    – Go for the lower-fee “Everywhere” cards if you can liquidate them

    These are Pathward / BlackHawkNetwork gift cards.

Gift card sale prediction sorcerers in action.

Long holiday weekends provide plenty of opportunity for churners and manufactured spenders, like:

  • Discount gift cards
  • Portal bonuses
  • Sales on airfare and stays
  • Discount goods for resale

They also provide another great unlikely benefit: In-store crowds.

Say what now? Crowds are a benefit? Yup. In crowds, cashiers and customer service desk personnel just want to keep lines moving. That gives you two ways to play holidays for in-person games:

  • Just keep running back to back transactions at self check out. As long as you’re quiet and not actively causing problems, you’ll be ignored. Holidays can be huge volume days
  • Try new things, if something hits wrong, customer service is too busy to make up rules and cause problems, they’ll usually just clear the error and move on

Good luck, and have a nice holiday friends!

Labor Day self checkout secondary effects, Kroger style.

In manufactured spend, churning, or practically any other walk of life, there’s always someone going bigger or having more success than you.* You can take that information in multiple ways, but the most common reactions I see are some form of:

  • I need to try harder, my volume is tiny
  • I doubt it’s even possible to do that much volume

After those initial reactions though, consider:

  • If you’re earning enough to sustain your travel, spending, DoorDash credits, or streaming habits (I guess), then you’re golden
  • If you earn more points then you spend, the points left behind are worth exactly $0, so earning more doesn’t make even sense without learning liquidation via the churning black arts
  • Churning and manufactured spend is a hobby, but it’s also a form of work – your work-life balance needs aren’t the same as anyone else’s

So run your own race, and have a nice weekend friends!

* Yes yes, mathematically that’s a stupid statement, but as a physicist who believes in the power of the spherical cow, it’s close enough.

Close enough, right?

    1. Kroger stores have 4x fuel points on third party gift cards and on fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards tomorrow through Monday, coupon clip required.

      Amazon and gas fuel cards are excluded from 4x earning, but still earn 2x. Gift card resale rates are at a relative maxima, and fuel points prices aren’t bad now either.
    2. RobinHood, which really needs a separate stand alone post that basically says: “literally don’t do anything funding related with them even if it seems fun. Yes I know it seems ok, but it’s really not and they’ll liquidate your positions forcefully”, has two transfer bonuses for Gold members that are uncapped in theory:

      – Regular brokerage: 2% bonus for incoming funds through September 15
      – IRA: 2% (or 3% with margin) bonus for incoming funds through September 15

      Both require that you hold your stocks or funds at RobinHood for 5 years. I did the math guys: If you bring $100 Billion in funds, this is a $2 Billion money maker. (Thanks to DoC)
    3. On Monday, Bilt will have an “up to 100%” transfer bonus to Virgin Atlantic miles (you can see what “up to” means for you in the mobile app in the For You section), so you’ve got the weekend to earn Bilt Rewards if care about Virgin Atlantic.

      Should you care? If you think of Virgin Miles as being effectively a buy a coach ticket (award fees) and upgrade to business class with miles proposition (mileage rate) and live in a gateway city, it’s often a great option. For those of you that live in Lubbock or balk at paying more than ~$50 in award fees, it’s probably best to move along to the next thing. Also, coach redemptions are ok I guess.

    Have a nice Thursday!

    Average travel hacker sentiment for Virgin Red, but as a person.

    1. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s Q3 promotions for (1) 2,500 bonus points per paid stay between August 25 and November 30 on up to 10 stays, and (2) double points for paid stays between September 2 and November 30.
    2. The Bank of America Atmos Ascent Visa business has a new inflight sourced sign up bonus of 85,000 Atmos miles after $5,000 spend in three months, which is 5,000 miles more than the current public link. The personal card’s similar bonus is still available:

      – Ascent Personal at https://atmoscard85k.com/
      – Ascent Business at https://atmosbizvisa85k.com/

      Both require a flight attendant code (not to be confused with the flight attendant code), or most any six digit random number that starts with 10. (Thanks to Remster32)
    3. The Bank of America Atmos Summit Visa has a 105,000 Atmos miles bonus by applying by phone at 800-392-2775 with priority code GAATB2. The bonus is 5,000 miles higher than the public link, and the minimum spend is the same at $6,000+ in 90 days.
    4. Alaska has a 15% off of a flight promotional code after signing up for text alerts by texting FLY to 252752 by the end of the day. The code will be delivered tomorrow, and doesn’t work for first class tickets but does work on Hawaiian flights.
    5. JetBlue’s TrueBlue now offers redemptions on German carrier Condor, and the airlines have mileage earning reciprocity too. Pricing for North America to and from Europe:

      – 54,000 – 99,000 points
      – 19,000 – 39,000 points

      The difference in prices seems to be distance related, but we haven’t seen an official award chart or comprehensive data set to confirm that.
    6. Delta’s annual Seattle NFL smash-and-grab fest registration is open at 12status.com. Under the promotion, anyone in Washington, or anyone “in” Washington gets:

      – 1x SkyMiles for every Seattle Seahawks passing yard
      – Zone 5 boarding from Seattle airport

      Delta has learned what GeoIP is so you may need a VPN to explore. (Thanks to notsofedexy).

    Happy Wednesday!

    The flight attendant code, illustrated.