It’s common for card issuers to offer bonus points for keeping a card open (retention offers) and for converting your card to a more expensive version (upgrade offers), but a new type of bonus just dropped in exactly the way that Taylor Swift’s Reputation (Taylor’s Version) didn’t last Friday: Downgrade offers.

We’ve now seen multiple reports of instances where an AmEx cardholder had no retention offers available and wanted to close a card, but were instead offered a bonus to convert the card to a lower annual fee product. The linked datapoint downgrade offer was 25,000 Membership Rewards after $1,000 spend in three months for converting a personal Platinum card to a personal Gold card (which I’d generally rather have anyway).

Unlike nearly all other banks, American Express’s primary business is credit cards so outstanding card count matters to their bottom line disproportionately, at least compared to most other card issuers. Now we just need to wait for the “offer final frontier”, or a statement credit or bonus points for closing a card.

Discover’s poorly thought out upcoming product conversion bonus, foil included.

  1. Staples has fee free $200 Visa gift cards in store through Saturday, limit eight per transaction. This stacks nicely with the American Express Business Gold $20 monthly office supply credit.

    These are Pathward gift cards, so have a liquidation plan in place. If your liquidation plan includes major nationwide retailers, there’s a $480 per six minute per store velocity limit.
  2. There’s a, umm let’s say “targeted”, Bank of America promotion for 5% off of ebay purchases of up to $1,000 with promo code TAKE5BOFA through December 31. The coupon has a limit of 10 uses, and presumably the limit is per ebay account. Notably you don’t need to use a Bank of America credit card to be eligible.

    The promo code isn’t working with the most obvious plays like gold bars, but you’re enterprising people right? Sometimes it makes sense to be on both sides of a transaction, just calculate the spread first. This may stack with portal cash back too. (Thanks to DAMU)
  3. It’s been just three days since we discussed the time value of points and how devaluations are one of several factors that erode the future value of loyalty currencies. Southwest decided that Veterans Day was the perfect time to illustrate the principle, announcing that points would be worth 4% less starting on January 1, 2024.

    As usual, head-on bookings with the Chase Sapphire Reserve continue to be more valuable for redemption than transferring points to Southwest and booking that way (1.5 cents plus mileage earning vs about 1.35 cents and no mileage earning), that is unless the risk premium for free cancelations and redeposits on points bookings and not dealing with flight credits is worth more than 0.15 cents per point to you.
  4. Meijer MPerks has 15,000 in points back on Choice, Happy, and One4All gift cards of $100 or more, limit one per MPerks account. Fortunately for Meijer, it’s not possible for a single person to have multiple email accounts, and therefore multiple MPerks accounts. (Thanks to GCG)
  5. There’s a targeted American Express offer for $175 back on $1,000 or more in cumulative spend with Cathay Pacific by December 31. It’s an interesting choice on AmEx’s part to make this one cumulative, almost inviting gamers to game. (Thanks to TeddyH)

Happy Monday!

An NFT sold on ebay showing the relative value Ultimate Rewards Southwest bookings compared to Rapid Rewards bookings. Limit one NFT per MPerks account.

Financial goons will be quick to tell you about the time value of money, which is a basic concept in economic theory that says money is worth more now than it is in the future, in part because:

  • You can earn interest immediately on money you have now
  • Thanks to modern monetary policy, inflation will always eat away at money’s value
  • Opportunity cost (which is sometimes added directly into either or both of the above)

The same concept applies to points and miles, but the factors aren’t quite the same. In the case of points and miles, they’re worth more now than the future because:

  • Devaluations happen
  • The redemption value of points is often tied to the cost of tickets (inflation bites here too)
  • Currencies get washed away
  • Miles and points don’t earn interest

What’s the takeaway? Burn those points as soon as practicable. Can you come up with a formula to describe this, asked no one? Yes we can, but no, I’m not going to do that today.

Have a nice weekend friends!

Yes, it’s time for the quarterly MEAB math nerd joke. Sorry, not sorry.

Apparently today I chose chaos by barking out orders at you like a 70s business man in a plaid suit with his feet on the desk and a cigar hanging out of his mouth. Sorry I guess?

  1. Do this now: Register for your targeted Q4 United MilePlay promotion. I got “book and take a premium seat one time by December 15 to get 5,000 bonus miles”, and the fine print says minimum $450 in base fare.
  2. Do this now: Manufacture Spend on all of your Bank of America cards today, up to $2,500 per card. You’ll earn your regular rewards +2% on cash back cards, and +2x on points earning cards.

    Note: There’s some debate about whether multiple cards for the same company are each eligible for $2,500 in spend. My opinion is that you’re eligible for $2,500 per main card account, regardless of the associated business.
  3. Do this never: Bilt points can now be transferred to Marriott at a 1:1 ratio, or for masochists that hate value, a 20,000:25,000 ratio in exactly 20,000 point increments. Frankly this is almost worse than redeeming Bilt points directly for a statement credit. If you’d like 100 bonus Bilt Points as a consolation prize for having to read this news, you can link your Marriott Bonvoy account to Bilt and you’ll get ’em.

Happy Thursday!

MEAB’s Thursday demeanor.

According to recent airline earnings calls, the demand indicator for domestic, low-cost travel has an indicator light and it’s blinking red. That means (1) there’s opportunity in the stock market, and (2) that we’re going to see airfare and award deals over the next couple of months. In fact, today’s news items are dominated by them:

  1. United has an award sale for flights to Maui booked by this evening for travel between November 12 and December 16. I’m seeing one way fares of approximately 16,000 miles and round-trip fares of 30,000 miles, even on Thanksgiving week.

    Unfortunately first class seats don’t appear to carry any discount, so you’ll fly in the back and you’ll like it (or else).
  2. Turkish Airlines has an award sale for half off of flights to and from Chicago for travel either in the next three days or between January 16, 2024 and March 31, 2024, but again, only in economy. Sorry bourgeoise. (Thanks to FM)
  3. Breeze Airways has 35% off of base fares booked by tomorrow night for travel all the way through September 3, 2024 with a few blackout dates around Thanksgiving and Christmas using promo code BENICE. This discount includes spring break and summer travel 👀.

    As always when a Breeze fare sale comes up, it’s time to highlight another route on the “Breeze Dartboard of city pairs”. Today’s winner is CAK-ORF, or Akron Ohio to Norfolk Virginia.
  4. Southwest has 30% off of base fares to and from Hawaii booked by tomorrow with promo code SAVE30. There are blackout dates around Christmas, President’s Day, MLK Day, and lots of March. (Thanks to David 99)
  5. GiftCards.com has 5% off of $100 Visa gift cards through November 19 using promo code HOLIDAY5 or GIFTVISA5. As usual, go through a portal and don’t forget the current round of portal spending bonuses. A few caveats though:

    – GiftCards.com emailed affiliates that commissions wouldn’t apply when codes were used on the last round, but apparently that email wasn’t sent this round
    – The back-to-school portal bonuses seem to have been delayed and haven’t paid out, whether or not GiftCards.com was involved
    – The maximum per-order discount is $15, so stick to three per order

    You’re all adults though, do what’s best for your situation.
  6. There are a few interesting American Express offers:

    – 50% off of Uber or Uber Eats, up to $25 spend
    – $90 statement credit with $350 spend at Hertz

    As usual, gamers can game. (Thanks to TeddyH)

The official airline demand annunciator panel is currently indicating softening demand for economy travel.

Editor’s note: My mail software was daylight savings naive and thus didn’t update yesterday’s delivery time with the time zone change, probably because it was developed by zonies according to reader Jim. You can access yesterday’s post here.

Chains popular with manufactured spenders often have limits on how many times a card can be used in a given time frame, for example, famously Kroger will usually decline a credit card after six swipes in a rolling 24 hours, chain-wide. That obviously means you’re limited in total manufactured spend at Kroger for a specific card, unless of course you aren’t:

  • Apple Pay looks like a different credit card
  • Many bank issuer’s authorized user cards have a different account number

A little creativity can go a long way.

Of course there is such a thing as being too creative.

  1. Staples has fee-free $200 Mastercards through Saturday, limit eight per transaction. As usual:

    – Don’t forget about the American Express Business Gold monthly $20 office supply credit
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back

    These are Pathward gift cards, and liquidation plays at major retailers often have a throttle of $480 every six minutes.
  2. There’s a new, targeted no-lifetime language American Express Blue Business Plus offer for 75,000 Membership Rewards after $15,000 spend in 12 months. It’s likely that you’ll also be targeted for 99 employee card bonuses after a couple of months too, so you can double dip spend bonuses.

    This is a credit card, and the limit of credit cards per social security number at American Express is either five or six, depending on, I dunno, I guess the color of the shirt you were wearing in your 5th grade glass photo.
  3. Meijer MPerks has $10 off of $150 or more in Visa gift card purchases through Saturday. This version requires that you clip the coupon in your MPerks account, and it can’t be clipped more than once in the same account. I wonder if it’s possible to create multiple MPerks accounts through some sort of internet sorcery? I guess we’ll never know.

    Meijer sells both Pathward and Sunrise gift cards. (Thanks to GCG)
  4. American Express offers has a targeted $100 off of $400 or more at Hyatt properties in Mexico, Costa Rica, and South America through January 31, 2024. Perhaps it’s time to re-read Breaking the Correlation because reasons.
  5. Citi ThankYou Points has a transfer bonus to Accor Hotels through November 30, which makes each ThankYou Point worth approximately 1.6 cents each depending on the USDEUR exchange rate.

    Accor Hotels are typically passed over in the points community, but I’ve had nothing but great experiences with Accor all over Europe.

Happy Monday!

All I can say is say for sure is that purple means six credit card slots and flannel means future Accor elite. I don’t make the rules.

You know how most of you get an extra hour this weekend? Well, there’s plenty to fill it:

  1. Capital One has an interesting bank bonus for a high-yield savings account:

    – $20,000: $300 bonus
    – $50,000: $750 bonus
    – $100,000: $1,500 bonus

    You must fund the account within 15 days, and hold it for 105 days after. The APR is currently 4.30% so the opportunity cost of holding funds is much lower than most recent bank bonuses.
  2. AirFrance and KLM’s FlyingBlue has released discounted promo award cities for travel through April 30, 2024 booked by this month. New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle, Dallas, San Jose, and Raleigh/Durham are this month’s US cities included in the promotion.
  3. The Gift Card Shop has 100% off of purchase fees for custom designed Visa gift cards through November 8 with code CUSTOMHOLIDAY23.

    These are InComm gift cards. (Thanks to SideShowBob233)
  4. MasterCardGiftCard.com has 50% off of purchase fees for orders over $150 through November 16 with code SHOPEARLY2023.

    These are InComm gift cards; is there an echo in here? (Thanks to SideShowBob233)
  5. Citi ThankYou Points has a couple of has transfer bonuses:

    – 25% to Avianca LifeMiles through tomorrow night
    – 30% to Qatar Avios through November 10, posted by Qatar within 45 days

    Both of these programs have sweet spots, google is your friend for some of them.
  6. The major airline shopping portals have new holiday spend bonuses:

    – AA: 4,000 miles with $1,600 in spend through November 17
    – Alaska: 1,500 miles with $650 in spend through November 17
    – Delta 2,000 miles with $1,000 in spend through November 17
    – Southwest: 4,000 points with $1,000 in spend through November 22
    – United: 5,000 miles with $1,200 in spend through November 20

    It’s possible to hit all of these bonuses with giftcards.com assuming that you have a good liquidation channel.
  7. Kroger.com has 5% off of physical Visa and Mastercard gift cards ordered online through November 15 using promo code FALLFRENZY23.

    These are US Bank gifts, the purchase won’t code as grocery, and will earn fuel points. (Thanks to GCG)
  8. Citi has been sending personal and business AA card holders offers for additional bonus miles for making at least one purchase in the next three billing periods:

    – 500 miles for the first statement
    – 1,000 miles for the second statement
    – 1,500 miles for the third statement
    – 2,000 miles in addition to the above for all three statements

    (Thanks to Justmeha and MVC)
  9. American Express has increased its business checking account sign-up bonus to 50,000 Membership Rewards, or $550 with the Schwab Platinum cash out. To be eligible, you’ll need to open an account by December 12 and:

    – Deposit $5,000 within 30 days
    – Maintain at least a $5,000 balance for the following 60 days
    – Make five transactions within the first 60 days

    ACHs and debit card activity both count as qualifying transactions. (Thanks to DoC)

Have a nice daylight savings weekend! (Unless you’re in Arizona, then, well, good luck.)

How daylight savings was invented, except for zonies.