Category: Gift Cards

  1. Do this now: Activate Q4’s quarterly rotating credit card categories:

    – Chase Freedom: PayPal, McDonalds, pet shops, vets, and some charities
    – Discover IT: Amazon and Target
    – Citi Dividend: Currently the page errors out, cause #CitiGonnaCiti, but in theory it’s restaurants and Citi travel
    – US Bank Cash+: I choose utilities and electronics stores

    For gaming these in the absence of organic use: PayPal P2P works well, Amazon and Target both sell gift cards, utilities usually allow overpayments, and electronics stores like BestBuy sell gift cards. Amazon, Target, and electronics stores are also typically good targets for buying group activity.
  2. Do this now: Register for IHG’s Q4 promotion for 3,000 bonus points for every two nights stayed between this Thursday and December 31.
  3. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card, run by a team who seems to think that they’re a venture capitalist funding a FinTech that will make money “really soon now”™, sent mid-month offers for online spend. We’ve seen:

    – $30 statement credit after $500 spend
    – $50 statement credit after $750 spend
    – $75 statement credit after $1,000 spend
    – 200,000 Shop Your Way Rewards after $750 spend
    – 250,000 Shop Your Way Rewards after $1,000 spend

    (Thanks to Y, MS Ninja, BrandonV, and Jack)
  4. Citi ThankYou Points has two transfer bonuses running through October 19:

    – Leading Hotels of the World Leaders Club: 25% transfer bonus
    – Avianca LifeMiles: 25% transfer bonus

    Both are solid choices, and if you’ve never looked into Leaders Club redemptions, it’s probably worth your time to do it. (Thanks to yt-nthr-rddtr and Oofzies)
  5. The Chase Avios co-braneded cards have increased sign-up bonuses for 100,000 Avios after $7,500 spend in six months. You can choose between British Airways, Iberia, or Aer Lingus cards, and once you have Avios you can transfer them between programs. The $95 annual fee is not waived the first year. Note that smaller benefits, like economy companion certificates or flight statement credits after lots of spend aren’t the same on all three cards.

    Yes, it’s possible to collect all three, but maybe grab some Inks with a referral instead and transfer into Avios programs if you really need them?
  6. Meijer stores have 50,000 MPerks points for $500 in third party gift card purchases through September 28, limit one per MPerks account.

    We all know that you can only have one MPerks account per email address, and we all know that you can have only one email address, right?
  7. M&T Bank has a $350 bonus for opening a new checking account with promo code TN and direct depositing, or “direct depositing” $500 within 90 days. Some regions like California are excluded because reasons.

Who wouldn’t want $1,500 (times n cards) worth of this?

Warning: Lots of words today, sorry.

  1. Do this now: Register for 2,000 bonus points per two night or longer paid stays at Marriott properties through November 26.
  2. The American Express Delta cards have increased sign-up bonuses:

    – Gold: 80,000 SkyMiles after $3,000 spend in six months, annual fee waived
    – Platinum: 90,000 SkyMiles after $4,000 spend in six months
    – Reserve: 100,000 SkyMiles after $6,000 spend in six month

    – Gold Business: 90,000 SkyMiles after $6,000 spend in six months, annual fee waived
    – Platinum Business: 100,000 SkyMiles after $8,000 spend in six months
    – Platinum Reserve: 110,000 SkyMiles after $12,000 spend in six months

    There’s also a targeted offer for the personal Gold at 50,000 SkyMiles + $500 after $3,000 spend and a single Delta purchase in six months during a flight booking, so consider that too. Also, note that all three versions of the business cards still have offers for adding employee cards and spending, up to 99 times.
  3. The American Express Marriott Business card has a heightened sign up bonus for five 50,000 free night certificates after $8,000 spend in six months. The certificates expire after one year, and can be topped off with points for up to 15,000 additional points per night. I expect this offer will be available via referrals shortly, so maybe wait for a couple of days and get it via referral. This card also has offers for adding employee cards and spending, up to 99 times.

    When evaluating the value of this card, please check the points cost of properties you might be interested in staying at; 50,000 points isn’t exactly top-tier in the Marriott program. Also, remember you’ll still be paying for resort fees and parking when staying on your free night certificates.
  4. The Chase IHG cards have increased sign-up bonuses:

    – Personal IHG Premier: Five free night certificates (60,000 points each) after $4,000 spend in three months
    – Business IHG Premier: 200,000 points after $9,000 in tiered spend in three and six months

    Both of these are likely more valuable than their Marriott counterparts if IHG’s hotel footprint follows your travel patterns. Both will likely be available via referrals in a few days too – so practice patience again.
  5. Giant, Giant Foods, and Martins stores have 2x fuel points on Vanilla Visa gift card purchases through Thursday, limit $1,500 per account.
  6. Stop & Shop, which is part of the same conglomerate as Giant, Giant Foods, and Martins, has a 3x fuel points promotion on Vanilla Visa gift card purchases through Thursday with no limit currently specified. But, historically “no limit specified” doesn’t mean no limit at these stores, so mind the gap I guess.
  7. Staples has fee free $200 Visa gift cards starting Sunday and running through the following Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Have a nice weekend!

Note: Adding 99 employee cards to your new accounts does have side effects.
(Thanks to Malia for this unfortunately very real image)

  1. Do this now: Register for bonus JetBlue TrueBlue miles with IHG hotel says through November 30. You’ll earn 1,000 miles for one or two night stays, or 3,000 miles for three night and longer stays. The maximum bonus earned for this promotion is 15,000 TrueBlue miles.
  2. Do this now (if you have a Chase Southwest Business card): Register for 6,000 bonus points after $6,000 in spend through November 30.

    For the math challenged, that works out to be an extra 1x on $6,000 spend. In fact, it works out that way even if you’re not math challenged. (Thanks to Brian M)
  3. The Barclays Lufthansa Miles & More personal card has an increased sign-up bonus of 80,000 miles after $3,000 spend in 90 days. The $89 annual fee is not waived the first year. This is the highest bonus seen on this card since last year, when it was 100,000 miles for a short period.

    The main use case for this card is for good access Swiss First Class award space for Miles & More members which costs 182,000 miles between the US and Europe, after a status match. You can also pair the bonus with 150,000 additional miles for $1,960 through September 30 . Or skip it, Swiss F is great but at a cost of $1,960+$89, so are plenty of other things.
  4. The Korean Skypass Visa has an increased sign-up bonus of 70,000 Skypass miles after $5,000 spend in 90 days. The $450 annual fee is not waived the first year. I believe this is an all-time high bonus.

    The main use case here is good access to Korean Business (Prestige) and First award space, which cost 80,000 miles and 120,000 miles between Asia and the US, respectively.
  5. Staples has fee free $200 Mastercard gift cards through Saturday. Because Staples likes messing with churners, this time the limit is nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Staples messes with non-churners too, as Portsmouth discovered after contracting sign design.

  1. US Bank has opened a waitlist for its annoyingly named Smartly Visa credit card. The card’s earning structure is 2%-4% cash back depending on your balance in an equally annoyingly named Smartly Savings account; you’ll need to keep $100,000 parked there for 4% earning.

    The annual fee is currently unspecified. (Thanks to LiftBroski)
  2. Southwest has a fast-track promotion to earn a two month Companion Pass. The requirements are:

    – Book two one-ways or one round-trip by tomorrow night
    – Fly both legs by November 20
    – Both legs must be paid flights, and existing bookings don’t count

    The promotional companion pass is valid between January 6 and March 6, 2025.
  3. Rakuten in-store offers has 1% back or 1 Membership Reward per dollar spent at Giant Food stores. As usual, once you use the promotion you’ve got to re-add it to your account after an hour, though any purchases in the first hour after use will continue to track.

    Apropos of nothing: Giant Food stores sell gift cards.
  4. AirFrance and KLM’s FlyingBlue program released its September promotional rewards. North American cities include Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington DC, New York, Montreal, and Ottawa.
  5. Breeze Airways has 50% off of base fares with promo code BIGDEAL for travel between September 18 and May 13, 2025 booked by tomorrow night.

    What they’re not telling you is that the big deal isn’t as big as you’d think because they blocked out lots of days from the promotion, so don’t listen when they say “I’m kind of a big deal”. In fact, that’s just good general life advice. (Thanks to FM)

Happy Wednesday!

Sioux City takes a swing and a miss at Lubbock.

  1. Clear has an offer for a $75 Uber voucher with a new membership, using the same promo code as in August, BETTERTRAVEL75 through September 6.

    This remains one of the best ways to cash out AmEx Clear credits, especially because you don’t need to show up in airport to validate anything.
  2. Rakuten In-Store has:

    – 4% or 4x back on Lowes purchases
    – 1% or 1x back on Food Lion purchases

    Both offers are good for 75 days after adding, and have to be re-added to your account one hour after purchase, and both stores sell open loop gift cards too.
  3. Publix stores have $10 off of $150 or more in Visa or Mastercard gift cards through Saturday, limit one per transaction, and you must clip the digital coupon.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  4. American Express Membership Rewards has a 30% transfer bonus to Hilton Honors points through September 30, making the transfer ratio 1:2.6. Note that you’ve got to login to see the transfer bonus.

    If we value Honors points at 0.5 cents each, then, since America Loves Math™, value = 2.6 * 0.5 = 1.3 cents per Membership Reward. It’s pretty big I guess.
  5. American Express Membership Rewards also has a 30% transfer bonus to British Airways, Ibera, and Aer Lingus Avios through September 30.
  6. Thirteen Star Alliance airlines have a status match for SAS Eurobonus elite members, which may or may not work with matched status from last week.

    Star Gold is a sweet spot for elite status, since it gives access to United Clubs even when flying domestically, provided the status isn’t from United. (Thanks to Connor)

How is E.T. like today’s post, asked no-one?

  1. Do this now: Try and register for Hyatt’s targeted promotion for 5,000 bonus points for each 5 nights stayed in the next 90 days, up to 45,000 total bonus points.
  2. Do this now: Register for Marriott’s fall promotions:

    – 2,000 bonus points per 2+ night paid stay (+2,000 if it’s an MGM property)
    – 2,000 bonus points per 2+ night paid stay for Marriott credit card holders

    These stack, but honestly 4,000 bonus Marriott points is probably worth $20 at best so don’t go nuts.
  3. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 or more in Visa gift cards through Saturday. For best results:

    – Buy in even multiples of $300
    – Link your cards to Dosh
    – Remember that the variable loads work too

    Just don’t be like me last week and try and load $500 on a $200 card. The register will take it, but I promise nothing good happens.
  4. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, the most sung of Unsung Heroes, has released new beginning of month offers, each is slightly complex because #extra. Each is good monthly for September, October, and November, and each will stack with other offers as applicable. We’ve seen:

    – $60 statement credit for a purchase $450+, good twice per month
    – $60 statement credit after six $75+ purchases
    – $50 statement credit for a purchase $375+, good twice per month

    I’ll be knocking this out with two $1,000 purchases at a grocery store to combine with outher outstanding credits. (Thanks to Brooke and birt)
  5. Rakuten has 15% back or 15x Membership Rewards on purchases at Dell, likely ending today. Use a friends referral if you don’t already have a Rakuten account, or use George at TBB’s otherwise.
  6. Avelo has $50 off of round-trip fares booked by Tuesday, for travel between September 17 and February 11, 2025 using promo code LABORDAY.

Pictured: The source of my instructions to load $500 onto a $15-200 variable load card.
(Thanks to IAD_Flyer for the picture)

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s promotion for 1,000 bonus points per night at Unbound Collection hotels between September 1 and November 30. The promo caps at 20 nights.
  2. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s fall promotion for double points on all stays between September 3 and November 18. The bad news with this promotion is that you’ll be staying in a Best Western.
  3. Meijer MPerks has $10 off of $150 or more in Visa gift cards in-store through Saturday with a clipped digital coupon. This type of promotion typically lets you reclip the coupon after each transaction too.

    Meijer carries both Sunrise and Pathward gift cards.
  4. Hy-Vee stores have have $10 off of $150 or more in Visa gift cards through Sunday. You don’t need to clip any digital coupons and you can repeat the discount ad-infinitum with new transactions, at least until the store manager runs you off of the property.

    These are Pathward gift cards. (Thanks to GCG)
  5. Bilt Rewards now earns on purchases at Walgreens made with any linked card, Bilt issued or otherwise. The earn rate on general spend is 1x for most items, or 2x on Walgreens house branded items.

    Gift cards are excluded via the terms and conditions, but may or may not actually be excluded.
  6. Office Depot/OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 or more in Mastercard gift cards through Saturday. For best results:

    – Buy in even multiples of $300
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back
    – Link your credit cards to Dosh

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  7. The Barclays Hawaiian Airlines Business card has an increased sign-up bonus of 70,000 HawaiianMiles after $2,000 spend plus a purchase. The $99 annual fee is not waived. The bonus is split into:

    – Main card: 60,000 miles after $2,000 spend
    – Employee card: 10,000 miles after a purchase

    The best play for gamblers is to bet that these will turn into Alaska MileagePlan miles next year at a ratio of 1:1. If they don’t, the best use will probably be either inter-island flying or using miles to upgrade a paid coach ticket to business on Hawaiian metal. (Thanks to BleedBlue__)
  8. Southwest has 30% off of flights to or from Mexico, Hawaii, the Caribbean, and Central America using promo code BEACHES for bookings made by tomorrow, and travel from September 29 through February 10, 2025.

    Blackout dates that you’d expect are present. And just like last time, John Wayne airport is excluded because Southwest hates any actors that promote the southwest as a region instead of as an airline.
  9. Chase Offers has 5%-10% back on Southwest Airlines airfare of $50 or more through September 6, on up to $400-$800 spend for a max cash back of $40. I suppose you could fly somewhere with a Best Western if you’re not into the whole “basic comfort” thing.

Happy Tuesday!

Southwest’s new marketing campaign is coming to a city near you.

EDITOR’S NOTE: If the math formula doesn’t render correctly in your reader, check the website at this link.

Introduction

In advantage play (gambling with an edge over the house), the Kelly Criterion or Kelly Formula gives a simple calculation for the best amount to bet to maximize earnings. We can draw an analog for resellers, whether it’s the buyer’s group kind or the gift card arbitrage kind.

The Propeller Head Part

The generalized Kelly formula, rewriting a bit to express terms familiar to resellers, is:

\%_{float} = \frac{(1-p_{loss})}{\%_{loss}} - \frac{p_{loss}}{\%_{gain}}

Where:

  • %float = The percentage of your budget to float
  • ploss = The probability that you’re going to lose your profit
  • %loss = The percentage you’ll lose if a loss happens
  • %gain= The percentage you’ll gain if you don’t lose

A Simple and Specific Example

Let’s look at Pepper, which may or may not pull the rug out from under you at any point in the next year. With Pepper, you’re probably earning about 3.9% from your credit card (4x Membership Rewards, worth 4.4% cash back, times 90% due to Pepper’s convoluted redemption). Assuming your buy rate equals your sell rate after rewards are paid out (buy at 90%, sell at 90%), then we’ve got a simple calculation:

  • ploss = 10% (pick your own number here, but let’s say there’s a 1 out of 10 chance of Pepper failure)
  • %loss = 10% (worst case you lose all of the discount Pepper gives)
  • %gain= 3.9% (the percentage you’ll gain if you don’t lose, in this case Membership Rewards)

Then run the numbers and get:

  • %float = (1-0.10)/0.10 – 0.10/0.039 = 644% (when probability of loss = 10%)

What the hell, you might ask? Why is that number over 100%, and how do I invest that much? Well, the answer is either (1) you should float all of your bank roll to maximize profit because you’re much more likely to win than lose, or (2) you need 5.44 other players to help you.

Increasing the Chance of Failure

What if you think there’s a 30% chance of Pepper failure though? The calculation is again simple:

  • %float = (1-0.30)/0.10 – 0.30/0.039 = -692% (when probability of loss = 30%)

What the double hell, you might ask? Why is that number over 100% and also negative? The formula is telling you that if you think Pepper’s got a 30% chance of failure in the next 30 days, you shouldn’t invest anything; “kill it with fire” says the formula.

Finding the Middle Ground

So, what’s the cut-off at which the formula switches from LFG to hells-to-the-no? I’ll spare you the algebra, but it’s easy to find by setting %float=0 and solving for ploss. Doing that gives:

  • ploss (cutoff point) = 0.2806 = 28.06%

In other words, if you think Pepper is < 28% likely to fail before you can cash out your rewards, you’ll maximize your profits by playing the resell game. If you think Pepper is ≥ 28% likely to fail, stay away. (I generated a boring graph illustrating how float percentage varies with the probability of loss for turbo-nerds here).

Conclusion

The Kelly criterion is surprisingly insensitive for churning problems, switching from above 100% (1.0) to below 0 very quickly. But, if you’re 3/4 certain that Pepper isn’t going to fail before your rewards are paid out, keep going.

Special thanks to John Reeder for poking me on the subject, and another special thanks to John for the idea for a follow-up piece on the subject: what if you know they’re gonna steal your money, but not when? Stay tuned, or, like yesterday, don’t; you do you.

Another helpful MEAB plot.