– Book two one-ways or one round-trip by tomorrow night – Fly both legs by November 20 – Both legs must be paid flights, and existing bookings don’t count
The promotional companion pass is valid between January 6 and March 6, 2025.
What they’re not telling you is that the big deal isn’t as big as you’d think because they blocked out lots of days from the promotion, so don’t listen when they say “I’m kind of a big deal”. In fact, that’s just good general life advice. (Thanks to FM)
– 4% or 4x back on Lowes purchases – 1% or 1x back on Food Lion purchases
Both offers are good for 75 days after adding, and have to be re-added to your account one hour after purchase, and both stores sell open loop gift cards too.
If we value Honors points at 0.5 cents each, then, since America Loves Math™, value = 2.6 * 0.5 = 1.3 cents per Membership Reward. It’s pretty big I guess.
Star Gold is a sweet spot for elite status, since it gives access to United Clubs even when flying domestically, provided the status isn’t from United. (Thanks to Connor)
– Buy in even multiples of $300 – Link your cards to Dosh – Remember that the variable loads work too
Just don’t be like me last week and try and load $500 on a $200 card. The register will take it, but I promise nothing good happens.
The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, the most sung of Unsung Heroes, has released new beginning of month offers, each is slightly complex because #extra. Each is good monthly for September, October, and November, and each will stack with other offers as applicable. We’ve seen:
– $60 statement credit for a purchase $450+, good twice per month – $60 statement credit after six $75+ purchases – $50 statement credit for a purchase $375+, good twice per month
I’ll be knocking this out with two $1,000 purchases at a grocery store to combine with outher outstanding credits. (Thanks to Brooke and birt)
– Main card: 60,000 miles after $2,000 spend – Employee card: 10,000 miles after a purchase
The best play for gamblers is to bet that these will turn into Alaska MileagePlan miles next year at a ratio of 1:1. If they don’t, the best use will probably be either inter-island flying or using miles to upgrade a paid coach ticket to business on Hawaiian metal. (Thanks to BleedBlue__)
Blackout dates that you’d expect are present. And just like last time, John Wayne airport is excluded because Southwest hates any actors that promote the southwest as a region instead of as an airline.
In advantage play (gambling with an edge over the house), the Kelly Criterion or Kelly Formula gives a simple calculation for the best amount to bet to maximize earnings. We can draw an analog for resellers, whether it’s the buyer’s group kind or the gift card arbitrage kind.
The Propeller Head Part
The generalized Kelly formula, rewriting a bit to express terms familiar to resellers, is:
ploss = The probability that you’re going to lose your profit
%loss = The percentage you’ll lose if a loss happens
%gain= The percentage you’ll gain if you don’t lose
A Simple and Specific Example
Let’s look at Pepper, which may or may not pull the rug out from under you at any point in the next year. With Pepper, you’re probably earning about 3.9% from your credit card (4x Membership Rewards, worth 4.4% cash back, times 90% due to Pepper’s convoluted redemption). Assuming your buy rate equals your sell rate after rewards are paid out (buy at 90%, sell at 90%), then we’ve got a simple calculation:
ploss = 10% (pick your own number here, but let’s say there’s a 1 out of 10 chance of Pepper failure)
%loss = 10% (worst case you lose all of the discount Pepper gives)
%gain= 3.9% (the percentage you’ll gain if you don’t lose, in this case Membership Rewards)
Then run the numbers and get:
%float = (1-0.10)/0.10 – 0.10/0.039= 644% (when probability of loss = 10%)
What the hell, you might ask? Why is that number over 100%, and how do I invest that much? Well, the answer is either (1) you should float all of your bank roll to maximize profit because you’re much more likely to win than lose, or (2) you need 5.44 other players to help you.
Increasing the Chance of Failure
What if you think there’s a 30% chance of Pepper failure though? The calculation is again simple:
%float = (1-0.30)/0.10 – 0.30/0.039 = -692% (when probability of loss = 30%)
What the double hell, you might ask? Why is that number over 100% and also negative? The formula is telling you that if you think Pepper’s got a 30% chance of failure in the next 30 days, you shouldn’t invest anything; “kill it with fire” says the formula.
Finding the Middle Ground
So, what’s the cut-off at which the formula switches from LFG to hells-to-the-no? I’ll spare you the algebra, but it’s easy to find by setting %float=0 and solving for ploss. Doing that gives:
The Kelly criterion is surprisingly insensitive for churning problems, switching from above 100% (1.0) to below 0 very quickly. But, if you’re 3/4 certain that Pepper isn’t going to fail before your rewards are paid out, keep going.
Special thanks to John Reeder for poking me on the subject, and another special thanks to John for the idea for a follow-up piece on the subject: what if you know they’re gonna steal your money, but not when? Stay tuned, or, like yesterday, don’t; you do you.
What happens if your flight is delayed past 11:59 PM on March 31, 2025? I dunno, but I image it wouldn’t be fun to clean up. (Thanks to Vince for sending me the correct promotion end date)
– There are Chase Offers and BankAmeriDeals for Meijer currently floating around – You have to clip the coupon in your MPerks account – This looks like the kind of deal that you can reclip after buying to repeat – Sometimes Meijer gas stands also sell gift cards
Meijer sells Pathward and Sunrise gift cards.
Delta Stays and Delta Car Rentals have a promotion for MQD earning on hotels and car rentals booked directly through the portal by September 30 for travel by October 31, earning at one mile per dollar spent. A few random thoughts:
– You can book VRBO bookings through Delta Stays – You can list things on VRBO, and sometimes VRBO runs promotions – Delta Platinum and Delta Reserve American Express cards have a Stays credit – For upcoming travel where status doesn’t matter, you might as well earn MQD – Delta Stays is not the same thing as Delta Vacations, don’t confuse them – Delta gift cards do not work at Delta Stays
Always be probing. Am I playing this one, asked no-one? No, because I have Diamond through 2030 thanks to prior shenanigans and as a result MQDs are effectively worthless for me until then.
Again, remember that Delta Vacations is different than Delta Stays even though they’re technically the same company, so your AmEx credits won’t work here because I guess late-stage capitalism, or something.
Side note: John Reeder challenged me once on my position about “floating what I could afford to lose”, and his counter-point is that in advantage play, the Kelly betting method governs your bets (or as an analog, money at risk) in order to maximize potential profit and indirectly minimize the risk of loss. There’s something there for churners; stand-by for a future post on the topic. Or don’t; you do you.
AirCanada Aeroplan’s customer service center, but as a bedroom.
– The voucher doesn’t does work outside of the US, but ymmv – The voucher can be used on multiple orders – The voucher works for Uber and Uber Eats – You’ve only been able to apply one voucher per Uber account per promotion
The vouchers typically come about a month after the end of the promo. (Thanks to nutella)
– $90 off of $450 or more in airfare at Delta – $20 off of $200 at Viator
The first one is easily gameable. The second one might be if you’re creative and have a penchant for shenanigans.
Southwest has a code for 25% off of award bookings booked today for travel between September 4 and December 18 with promo code SAVE25NOW. The blackout days and cities paragraph is too lame to summarize, so just assume that the sale only applies on days that you don’t want to travel from cities that you don’t want to visit.
I repriced ten upcoming reservations and only one was eligible for the discount.
Happy Monday!
The answer to the question: What happens if you combine bad Monday jokes with Uber Eats?
The American Express Blue Business cards have new no-lifetime language (NLL) links at the usual public address (a prediction I got right for once). Both cards have no annual fee:
– Blue Business Plus: 50,000 Membership Rewards after $5,000 spend in three months – Blue Business Cash: $500 statement credit after $5,000 spend in three months
Miles&More miles are the best and often the only, way to get Swiss Airlines First Class award redemptions. What’s the worst way to earn Miles&More miles, asked no-one? Transfer Ultimate Rewards → Hyatt →Lufthansa at a 5:2 ratio!
While we’re on the subject of bad ideas, how about this playground gem?
