Summer travel makes up the bulk of airline profits outside of a few weeks around the holidays, and Summer demand means that award availability and sales are scarced between Memorial and Labor Day, at least usually. Enter Summer 2025 travel bookings, in which:
- Frontier swipes at Southwest with free seat selection, free cary-ons, and free flight changes through August 18, and you can get free checked bags with promo code FREEBAG on flights between May 28 and August 18 too. You’ve got book by March 24, unless they extend it like they suggest in their hints.
There are two ways to read into this: (1) Frontier sees a hole in the market left by Southwest, is shrewd, and wants to take Southwest’s traditional customer base; or (2) the low cost carrier summer booking demand-o-meter is flashing red, and management has decided that some revenue is better than no revenue. I tend to think it’s the latter disguised as the former, but what do I know? - Breeze Airways has a 50% off base fare sale for bookings by tomorrow night and travel between March 25 and June 18 with promo code SCENIC. This, for those keeping score at home, is the second 50% off sale in the last 10 days.
Breeze historically was an investor garbage fire for capital, but turned things around for profitability last year. Just like Frontier though, I think Breeze’s summer demand-o-meter is blinking red too. - Yesterday, Avelo Airlines had $30 off of round-trip bookings for travel between March 26 and August 28 with a few small blackout windows (the promo was SOAR30). There’s a good chance they replace it for something else today, and while the discount wasn’t big enough to talk about in a normal post while the sale was still running, but it is telling that the sale ran right over the whole Summer season.
What about the big three US airlines? Well, they’ve already told us Summer looks bleak, especially for non-premium cabin traffic.
Ok, so what’s the action item on today’s post if you’re a first class diva don’t fly any of those “lesser” airlines? Well, if you’re an active investor, evaluate your positions on airlines. I’m not an investment advisor and I’m definitely not your investment advisor, but I’d say being long airline stocks through Q3 reporting is a bold strategy, Cotton. On the other hand if you’re looking for award bookings for Summer travel, watch for more inventory to open up.
Happy Wednesday!
Another bold strategy.