Year: 2025

We have a lot of strange updates to slingshot us into the weekend, just like yesterday’s SpaceX Starship was slingshotted (slungshot?, slingshat?) to orbit:

  1. The next installment of American Express versus the Floosies dropped. In the new chapter, Chapter IV: That Time Maurice Posed in Duck Face, American Express blocked most floosie merchants, preventing charges from going through. This was made especially easy because the floosie merchants all shared some common traits.

    My opinion: The floosies are lucky that it shook out this way and that it wasn’t worse. I bet they’ll strike back though.
  2. The AA, Alaska, Delta, Southwest, United, Airline shopping portals have limited earn on giftcards.com purchases to the first $20,000 per rolling 365 days. Emirates, JetBlue, and Virgin Atlantic have limited earn to the first $2,000 per month. The curious case of another portal remains a curious case though.

    My takeaway is that giftcards.com orders through an airline portal should only happen when the bonus is 2x+, or when there’s a cumulative spend shopping bonus.
  3. Recurring American Express statement credits for airline incidentals, $200 Dell credits, $10 telecommunications, $10 GrubHub, $50 Saks, and $20 flexible business credits stopped posting for charges after February 17. Resy 10x and 15x bonus points stopped around the same time too. Don’t stress, it’s not you, it’s them. They’ll get it fixed eventually, this happens roughly every year.

    Dunkin, Hilton, Clear, Walmart+, and Resy restaurant credits remain unaffected.
  4. Office Depot / OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300 in Mastercard gift cards through Saturday. Buy in even multiples of $300 for a bigger overall discount. Also, finally, something normal!

    These are Pathward gift cards.

Have a nice weekend friends!

Yes the duck face is real, and no you won’t find it here.

  1. The AirFrance / KLM FlyingBlue Bank of America Mastercard has two new increased sign-up bonuses:

    – 70,000 FlyingBlue miles and 100 XP after $3,000 spend in three months
    – 60,000 FlyingBlue miles, a $100 statement credit, and 100 XP after $3,000 spend in three months, presented during checkout with a dummy flight booking

    This card is interesting for status chasers, especially because you can have multiple and the anniversary XP bonus stacks.
  2. Alaska has an award sale for fares booked by tonight, but generally only for travel starting in late march and ending in late May . I’m seeing:

    – 4,000 miles for short-haul and some flights to Mexico
    – 7,500 miles for west coast to Hawaii
    – 7,500 miles for transcontinental flights

    You can still transfer Membership Rewards to Alaska via Hawaiian, though hopefully (?) that dies soon.
  3. Southwest Wanna Get Away and Wanna Get Away Fare Plus fares earn fewer miles per dollar spent. Why mention it here? It slightly changes the calculus Chase Sapphire Reserve point bookings versus transferring to Rapid Rewards and booking with points through Southwest.
  4. The Southwest Rapid Rewards shopping portal has 1,000 bonus miles with $300 spend through March 17. Something something points calculus.
  5. Harris Teeter stores, the zombie stepchild of Kroger has 4x fuel points on all third party gift cards excluding Amazon through Tuesday.
  6. Reportedly the Capital One Travel portal has a promotion for 20x points on a hotel booking for those who haven’t booked a hotel through the portal before, with a maximum bonus of 50,000 points through April 15. (Thanks to FM)

Happy Thursday!

Kroger affiliates: Harris Teeter (left), the others (right).

If you search Perplexity for “What are American Airlines miles worth?”, you may get a range of numbers from 1.0 cents each to 2.5 cents each and a lot of hallucinated reasoning behind those numbers too. If you repeat the search, you’ll probably get a different result. Valuing miles is hard, even for AI. So, often we revert to one of the hobby’s normal methods:

  • A mile is worth the value of selling it on the grey market
  • A mileage redemption is worth the cash that you would have paid without the miles
  • A mileage redemption is worth the cash price that the ticket or property is listed for
  • A mile is worth 1.0 cents, because most programs let you redeem at that level
    A mile is worth your opportunity cost for acquiring it

Those are all fine and good, but sometimes you need a legally defensible valuation for a mile as part of a settlement, tax action, corporate valuation, or similar rigorous process, and the above answers typically won’t cut it because of logical holes big enough to fly an A380 through. Also, judges in particular hate it when you’ve got a hand-waivey answer with variability left up to the eye of the beholder. So, let’s reintroduce a mileage valuation that’s easily defensible:

  • A mile is worth what the program will sell it to you for

Right now, I can buy 10,000 AA miles for $338.63, so for the purposes of a legally defensible valuation for miles, AA miles are worth 3.3863 cents each.

Happy Wednesday!

Yes, there’s another common way to determine mileage value.

Before we dive in, let me answer a few frequently asked questions about yesterday’s post:

  • No, I’m not building an alternative gift card marketplace
  • I think the opportunity for someone who successfully builds one is huge though
  • Yes, there are probably a bunch of mid-tier gift card resellers that you don’t know
  • You can find a recent-ish list of reputable gift card buyers here
  • No, I wouldn’t recommend starting new with Pepper any more, if you’re still there, float what you’re willing to lose based on your risk tolerance
  • No, I haven’t tried the Campbell’s ghost pepper soup, but yes, I do have a reader review ready

And now, today’s news:

  1. Chase has been accidentally reporting open business credit cards to TransUnion for a relatively small set of churners, but seemingly only if cards were opened with a social security number as the primary tax ID (versus an EIN).

    This seems to be an error on Chase’s part, and they’re fixing it within 10 business days if you call and ask. In theory . So your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to check your TransUnion credit report and put a ticket in with Chase if necessary.
  2. FlyingBlue Promo Rewards for March have been released for travel booked in march and flown through August 31. The promotional US cities are Detroit, Seattle, Washington DC, Boston, and Austin.
  3. Chase Ultimate Rewards has a 20% transfer bonus to British Airways Avios through the end of March. As usual, this is effectively a transfer bonus to all carriers that use Avios as their currency.
  4. Staples has fee free $200 Visa gift cards through Saturday.

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  5. VanillaGift.com has fee free Vanilla Visa gift cards with promo code VGWOMEN through Saturday. Purchase limits for Incomm sites are $10,000 per account per rolling 24 hours.

    These are Incomm gift cards. Incomm sites won’t earn points or count toward a sign-up bonus on American Express first party cards.
  6. The Chase Freedom and Freedom Flex cards have two bonus 5x categories in March: Insurance and tax preparation services, no registration necessary.

    The original $1,500 spend across all 5x categories for the quarter remains.

Happy Tuesday!

Your next mission: Fly for 12 hours in this.

The biggest volume gift card reselling platform Raise’s GCX, which incidentally via a broker is where most manufactured spender’s gift cards end up, recently made moves that seem to effectively push all but the top three or four sellers into insolvency unless they have a stable of private buyers or a mostly non-existent big alternative. Based on discussions with several anonymous brokers, the new normal is:

  • New tiers (that sound like Delta status levels) based on quarterly sales volume:
    • <= $19,999 for Bronze
    • $20,000+ for Silver
    • $100,000+ for Gold
    • $500,000+ for Platinum
    • $1,000,000+ for Diamond
    • $10,000,000+ for Delta 360 Diamond Plus
  • Platform selling fees ranging based on tier level from 15% to 6%-ish (that means if you sell BestBuy at 98.50% of face, you’ll take-home 83.5% after fees as a Bronze member, maybe up to 45 days later)
  • Penalties for cards that don’t sell quickly enough
  • Increased penalties for debited transactions (when a buyer says the card doesn’t work)
  • No more grace period for bad quarters, immediate tier demotion
  • Longer holding times before payout for many gift cards

If you want to sell on Raise / GCX and compete with the big three current sellers that are paying approximately 6-7% in fees, you’re going to have pay around $40,000 in extra commissions on your way to that tier too. That means:

  • Raise’s changes are forming an oligopoly of gift card resellers
  • Smaller resellers are going to drop out (I’ve heard of three already)
  • The bar to entry to be an effective bulk competitor is higher than ever
  • Competition for manufactured spenders selling gift cards to brokers will fall
  • Manufactured spenders will see decreased profits as competition falls
  • The existing oligopoly will see increased profits as competition falls

Raise is likely to have a simpler business and a smaller support staff with these changes, but they’re also leaving themselves vulnerable to a new marketplace competitor with lower fees and a penchant for marketing that could take over as the new de-facto gift card resale platform. Watch for turbulent times in the short term, and (hopefully) a new reseller focused marketplace in the medium term.

Oh, and since we haven’t talked about Pepper for a while, let’s take a tangent from the main topic to mention Pepper’s weekend: they were offering 20% back in Pepper Coins for Best Buy purchases, and 25% back for Target purchases. Completely auspicious right?

Happy Monday!

GCX/Raise’s totally original status program elite bag tag.

  1. There are two popup-free NLL American Express links that have been floating in the depths of the churning community for awhile, but have recently surfaced:

    – Business Platinum: 250,000 Membership Rewards after $15,000 spend in three months
    – Business Gold: 200,000 Membership Rewards after $10,000 spend in three months

    These aren’t modified links, but they are post-targeted links which makes them slightly risky. The links are less risky if your first name is Mike though. No, I’m not kidding, this one is real.
  2. Do this now: Register for Chase’s targeted offer for Ink cards for 5,000 bonus Ultimate Rewards with every $5,000 spent between tomorrow and the end of May, but only up to 15,000 bonus points. (Thanks to Jordan)
  3. Do this now: Register for Wyndham’s Q2 promotion for 7,500 bonus points on each two nights stayed between May 9 and June 16, up to 15,000 total bonus points. If you hold a Wyndham credit card, there’s an extra 7,500 bonus points after the first two nights too.
  4. American Express seems to have implemented a new 2/90 rule this year even on charge cards, preventing you from being approved for more than two cards in a 90 day window, shenanigans notwithstanding.
  5. AA has a targeted promotion for a free pass to a Flagship Lounge with a flight booked in any cabin other than economy after registration and flown before the end of March.

    I think AA’s promotions over the last couple of days trying to get someone, anyone to fly in March suggests that their Q1 might not be off to a great start.
  6. Air Canada Aeroplan family pooling is back after being pulled last year because of rampant mileage brokering abuse. If you want to use it in the future in a pinch, I’d set up your pool now because verification can take weeks.

    In this case, having the first name Mike isn’t believed to help.

Have a nice weekend friends!

Mike helps a churner celebrate another flight booked at 1.54 cents per Membership Reward point.

  1. Do this now: Register for AA’s widely targeted promotion for 500 Loyalty Points for each AA flight in March, up to 5,000 bonus points total. Flights need to be booked (or rebooked) after registration to be eligible. (Thanks to VFTW)
  2. Capital One has a widely targeted offer for 5,000 bonus miles with a 1,000+ mile transfer to JetBlue TrueBlue. The transfer ratio is awful other than the bonus, so your best bet is to transfer 1,000 miles exactly and earn 5,600 TrueBlue miles. On the plus (?) side, 5,600 miles is enough for some short-haul basic economy tickets.
  3. The American Express Hilton cards have an increased sign-up bonus:

    – Honors: 70,000 points and a free night certificate after $2,000 spend in six months
    – Surpass: 130,000 points and a free night certificate after $3,000 spend in six months
    – Aspire: 175,000 points after $6,000 spend in six months

    In case you’re in pop-up jail on those and don’t know how to get out, you can find smaller bonuses that are mostly popup immune for the same cards here.
  4. Staples.com now sells virtual Visa gift cards with gargantuan fees, topping out at $9.95 for a $300 virtual Visa. I guess maybe you can make this make sense if you’re good at alt portals.

    These are Pathward gift cards. (Thanks to DoC)
  5. The Chase United Quest’s $125 annual United credits are changing to TravelBank credits in March, which makes one of my least favorite cards slightly more attractive.
  6. Breeze Airways 45% off of base fares with promo code ESCAPE for travel from March 5 through September 9, and it must be booked by tomorrow.

Happy Thursday friends!

JetBlue basic economy still includes a circa 2012 screen with at least one burnt out color channel and complimentary screen covering.

  1. Hyatt released its category changes scheduled to take effect on March 25. Many more properties are going up in category than going down so make speculative bookings for future travel now, especially if that travel includes Japan.
  2. It’s time for a semi-regular Pepper update:

    – Pepper is regularly selling Walmart and other high value cards with 30% back in coins
    – Amazon’s “partnership” with Pepper no longer allows card purchases, but only if you’re not special apparently

    I can’t imagine a plausible positive spin on either of these items, but I’m sure several churners buried up to their ears in Pepper coins have one. (Yes, I still have floated Pepper coins, but I’m only buried up to my ankles.)
  3. The Lufthansa Miles & More program, long a sweet spot for churners buried up to their ears in esoteric details, is moving to dynamic award prices for Lufthansa, Swiss, and Austrian tickets starting on June 15, and the base mileage cost for Premium Economy, Business, and First is going up on many routes too.

    Unlike with Pepper, I can imagine a few plausible positive spin on this: (1) You’ll be able to book flights that wouldn’t have availability under the old scheme, but probably at much higher mileage costs; and (2) economy fares will have a lower bottom. On the whole though, these changes suck.
  4. There are a few targeted generic upgrade offers for Delta Business Gold American Express card holders:

    – Gold to Platinum with 30,000 SkyMiles and a $100 statement credit after $6,000 spend in six months
    – Gold or Platinum to Reserve with 40,000 SkyMiles and a $200 statement credit after $10,000 spend in six months

    If you’re fast, or lucky, or maybe fast and lucky, you might get both back-to-back from a Business Gold. (Thanks to Bill)
  5. The Ceasar’s Rewards Visa Signature credit card includes Diamond status if you apply by March 1 and spend $5,000 within the first 90 days outside of Ceasars properties, which is extra useful if you’re a washout from a mostly defunct trademarked merry-go-round. (Special thanks to Joshua)
  6. Southwest has 30% off of base fares with promo code 30SPLASH for flights booked by tomorrow night and travel between March 18 and May 21.

    I repriced existing travel and averaged about 30% off with this promotion, which is slightly better than normal and surprisingly on brand for the promo code.

Have a nice Wednesday!

Visualization of being buried up to your ears in Pepper coins.