Category: Wisdom

NOTE: I’ll be going on a blogging vacation between Monday and December 31, during which there will be at least some guest posts. I’ve already gotten a few queued up from readers smarter than me, and I’m soliciting for more to complete the holiday. Posts should be non-sponsored, non-promotional, non-political, and at least travel hacking or churning adjacent. Please reach out to me if you’re interested, it’ll be the third easiest gig you’ve ever gotten!

Introduction

Between 2011 and 2013, it was possible to earn miles for any Amazon purchase through the US Airways and Hawaiian shopping portals. In 2011 I was relatively new to the game and I made a common mistake: I had earned a chunk of US Airways miles through promotions and a credit card bonus, so I decided that I’d earn Hawaiian miles instead whenever I shopped at Amazon, even though had exactly no clear use case. I was sure that at some point I’d use them, just like Southwest CEO Bob Jordan is (incorrectly) sure that Southwest will never have a holiday meltdown again.

Piles of Miles

Now, please join me in 2023 and let’s peek at my current Hawaiian Airlines balance, keeping in mind that I’ve redeemed exactly as many Hawaiian miles as the number of good menu items at Chik-Fil-A, or the number of times that Southwest CEO Bob Jordan has correctly predicted the meltdown future [drumroll]:

Zero (0)

By 2013 I’d earned 40,000 Hawaiian miles through the Amazon shopping portal, but eventually they expired – partially because I was inexperienced and partially because I didn’t ever have a redemption plan in mind. This is a common mistake, especially when you’re stating out. In the last couple of weeks for example, I’ve heard from churners who:

  • Have mid-six figures of IHG points and have never stayed in an IHG hotel
  • Signed up for two Southwest credit cards without even having a Rapid Rewards number
  • Lost 500,000 ThankYou Points after a Citi shutdown, never having used a single point

Obviously some of these are more catastrophic than others, but they all illustrate a common theme: A point isn’t worth anything if it’s never redeemed, and if you have no loose plan, there’s a good chance you’ll never redeem.

MEAB, Get to the Point!

Before you earn any loyalty currency, have at least a rough idea of how you’ll use that currency. Otherwise, you’re almost certainly better off earning cash because at least that doesn’t expire and can be used effectively anywhere, for any travel, as long as your airline isn’t melting down.

Happy Holidays friends!

The easiest gig you’ve ever gotten.

Historically American Express takes just a couple of days to post sign-up bonuses on Membership Rewards earning cards, statement credits, card-linked offer awards, retention bonuses, and employee spending bonuses after the terms are met. Perhaps due to cold weather, or maybe due to the launch of a new Membership Rewards program in India without enough infrastructure to handle it, those credits and bonuses that used to post in a few business days are taking longer and longer to post. Typical posting timeframes:

  • August: 1 – 3 business days
  • September: 2 – 4 business days
  • October: 3 – 5 business days
  • November: 5 – 7 business days
  • December: 7 – 12 business days

Beyond the obvious delayed dopamine hit, why should we care? Easy. For some statement credits tied to the calendar, your credit often counts in the month that it posts even if the charge was in the prior month (though even that’s not completely consistent).

So, I’d consider this week your last week to use your airline credits, wireless credits, garbage credits (Dell, Adobe, Clear, etc), food credits, and other coupons to guarantee that they post before the month’s and the year’s end. Don’t be #bonvoyed!

Good luck, and happy Tuesday!

Pictured: American Express’s messaging system between the charge department and credit department.

NOTE: I’ll be going on a blogging vacation between December 18 and 31, during which there may or may not be any posts. But, we’ll ring in the new year on January 1, 2024 with the 2023 version of Travel Hacking as Told by GIFs though, so no need to be up in arms. What’s this “may”, you ask? I’m soliciting for guest posts and I’ll use those during the regularly scheduled newsletter. They should be non-sponsored, non-promotional, non-political, and at least travel hacking or churning adjacent. Please reach out to me if you’re interested, it’ll be the third easiest gig you’ve ever gotten!

In person manufactured spend has multiple potential points of failure, but the most silently insidious is buying a Visa, Mastercard, or third party gift card and discovering that it’s been tampered with after you’ve bought it. Time isn’t on your said when that happens because it gives the scammer more opportunity to drain the card before you’re able to act.

Most tampering scams require the scammers to check cards at least daily to see if they’ve been activated, so you’ve got an expectation value of a few hours time between when you buy the card and the moment that a scammer discovers it’s been activated. That means a stack of gift cards on your desk waiting to be liquidated has an increasing likelihood of issues, and a decreased expected net value over time.

The obvious takeaway? Open and inspect cards you buy immediately and liquidate as soon as possible (whether or not you’ve been scammed, but obviously especially if you’ve been scammed.)

Stay safe out there!

The rule also applies to this, err desert, the longer you wait between eating and the food exiting your system, the higher the risk to your digestive health.

Card issuers like American Express and Chase famously have cards with:

  • Statement credits that reset every calendar year
  • An annual fee that posts on the 12th statement
  • The ability to cancel a card and refund the fee for 30 days after it posts

Taken as a whole, these three bullets mean that late November and December are the ideal times to get a credit card with annual credits. For example, the American Express Business Platinum card has:

  • $200 airline incidental credit every calendar year
  • $200 Dell credit every six months
  • $189 Clear credit every calendar year

If you get the card on December 1, 2023, then your 12th statement won’t generate until (at the earliest), December 15, 2024, and thus you can get an annual fee refund through January 14, 2025. That means as long as you hit spend early and cancel the card before January 14th, 2025 you’ll get:

  • $600 in airline incidental credits (2023, 2024, and 2025)
  • $800 in Dell credits (2H2023, 1H2024, 2H2024, 1H2025)
  • $450 in Adobe credits (2023, 2024, and 2025)
  • $567 in Clear credits (2023, 2024, and 2025)
    (though you should discount those Adobe and Clear credits significantly)

There are a few gotchas to watch for, such as how Bank of America’s annual fee refund after an annual fee posts isn’t guaranteed, or how the Chase Sapphire Reserve’s travel credit is tied to cardmember year, not calendar year. But, you’re enterprising people, right?

Good luck!

The triple dip visualized as jello. From top to bottom, red (2023), white (2024), and confused (2025).

The deluge of promotions between Black Friday and Cyber Monday is waning like the Joyland Amusement Park in Lubbock, TX, but that doesn’t mean that your favorite promotions will die when they’re supposed to. Famously in November 2021 for example, VanillaGift.com had fee free Visa gift cards using code SHOPEARLY2021. That code was scheduled to last for a couple of weeks (which should also be obvious from the name), but it didn’t actually stop working until Summer of 2022.

This isn’t an isolated occurrence either, it’s happened to multiple promotions over the weekend and some of them will no-doubt continue throughout the end of the year, or if you’re lucky into next. What’s the lesson? Companies don’t always bother with expiration dates. Always be probing.

Clearly Lubbock’s amusement park outlived its expiration date.

News

Before we dive back into the time value of points, there are a few relevant and leading news items to discuss:

Not only does maximizing the value of your points require burning early and often, but it also necessitates hitting smaller products with outsized value harder than products with average value.

Revisiting the Time Value of Points

With those notes in mind, we can derive an equation for the time value of points. If it doesn’t render correctly in your email client, see the website here. (And yes, I’m sorry to put you all through this, but sometimes I can’t won’t help myself):

FV = PV \times (1 + r - (q \times d) + i)^n \times (1 - p)

Where:

FV = future value
PV = present value
r = any promotional increase of value in a given period
q = the probability of a devaluation in a given period
d = the rate of devaluation in a program in a period
i = interest on points earned in a period (there is a program that does this)
n = the period (time)
p = the probability a program shutting down and wiping out all value

(Thanks to Jon for noting that the original version of this post lacked a definition for i)

The Point?

Is this formula useful? Sort of. It’d be more useful if someone would write a quick calculator web site. Do I actually expect anyone to use this formula? No, not really for anything other than mental gymnastics.

Points and miles still devalue, and sometimes they devalue a lot. Don’t forget that the second part of this site is titled “And Burn”.

Pictured, left to right: MEAB with glasses; The entire churning community after this post.

Financial goons will be quick to tell you about the time value of money, which is a basic concept in economic theory that says money is worth more now than it is in the future, in part because:

  • You can earn interest immediately on money you have now
  • Thanks to modern monetary policy, inflation will always eat away at money’s value
  • Opportunity cost (which is sometimes added directly into either or both of the above)

The same concept applies to points and miles, but the factors aren’t quite the same. In the case of points and miles, they’re worth more now than the future because:

  • Devaluations happen
  • The redemption value of points is often tied to the cost of tickets (inflation bites here too)
  • Currencies get washed away
  • Miles and points don’t earn interest

What’s the takeaway? Burn those points as soon as practicable. Can you come up with a formula to describe this, asked no one? Yes we can, but no, I’m not going to do that today.

Have a nice weekend friends!

Yes, it’s time for the quarterly MEAB math nerd joke. Sorry, not sorry.

Editor’s note: My mail software was daylight savings naive and thus didn’t update yesterday’s delivery time with the time zone change, probably because it was developed by zonies according to reader Jim. You can access yesterday’s post here.

Chains popular with manufactured spenders often have limits on how many times a card can be used in a given time frame, for example, famously Kroger will usually decline a credit card after six swipes in a rolling 24 hours, chain-wide. That obviously means you’re limited in total manufactured spend at Kroger for a specific card, unless of course you aren’t:

  • Apple Pay looks like a different credit card
  • Many bank issuer’s authorized user cards have a different account number

A little creativity can go a long way.

Of course there is such a thing as being too creative.