Year: 2025

  1. Simon Malls will stop selling gift cards in-store on Friday. The glory days of Simon gift cards have passed, but because we like to study the past to learn for the future, there was a time when:

    – They carried $1,000 GCs in-store
    – Some malls coded as restaurants with some issuers
    – The cards could be easily liquidated at Safeway, Kroger, or Walmart

    None of those things are true any more.
  2. Regarding the elephant in the room: I think Pepper manufactured spenders are largely informed about the current risks involved with the platform. If and when it fails, I think the probable outcome is:

    – Gift cards issued more than a week prior are probably safe
    – Gift cards issued in the last days of the platform may be zeroed by BlackHawk
    – Floated coins will be lost

    Why bring this up today? Yesterday Pepper offered effectively unlimited quantities of Amazon gift cards at 22% cash back. Most of that 22% won’t post for a few weeks. So, I guess I’m reading the room which I’m good at about 50% of the time. I still have floated coins with Pepper, but I’ve been scaling way back. I actively chose not to buy yesterday.
  3. In a move surprising only the ghost of Spiro Agnew, Marriott devalued its award chart for higher end properties. A few notes:

    – High end property redemptions increased by as much as 80%
    – Don’t trust a blogger’s valuation of points, use your own redemptions as a guide
    – My valuation of Marriott points was already low at ~ 0.5 cents each, this doesn’t help

    New valuation? Still 0.5 cents, but a low 0.5 cents.
  4. Bilt’s rent day promotion for Saturday is a 20%-100% transfer bonus to Avianca LifeMiles, depending on your status in the program. You’ve still got time to earn points that’ll post by Saturday. I’m certain there’s going to be a limit on the bonus, but I can’t find it published and I’m of course not part of Bilt’s marketing campaigns because reasons.

    Avianca has strange loopholes that lead to great redemptions, but availability often isn’t great.
  5. Staples stores have $200 fee-free Mastercards in store through Saturday, limit nine per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards.

More Bonvoy math.

The American Express Platinum and Business Platinum cards (side note: Am I supposed to ™/® those 14 times? everyone else does) famously have $200™ annual incidental airline credits®. There’s no trophy for being the first data point on what works for gaming the credits, so often waiting a few weeks to learn what works is the right play. As an aside, here’s what that looks like in 2025:

  • United: Buy TravelBank credit directly. It expires in five years and can be used to pay for United flights. You can usually sell this for 85%+ too, and with a little trickery you can turn them into flexible credits good for other people and on other airlines  [more info]
  • Delta: Buy airfare and pay partially with a gift card or travel credit, pay for the remainder with your card (don’t go over the incidental credit amount though). Alternatively if you have a co-branded American Express Delta card and are eligible for Pay with Miles™, pay partially with miles and the remainder will be credited™ [more info]
  • Alaska: Buy a seat upgrade after booking (*cough* but call it a seat selection fee®) or buy a flight paid partially with Alaska wallet funds and partially with your AmEx (less than $100), then refund to your wallet after 24 hours [more info]
  • Southwest: Buy a flight less than $109, or book an international flight with taxes under $109 per ticket, then refund to a travel credit. Combine with Wanna Get Away+ to get around name-locking  [more info]
  • American: Buy cheap airfare, then change it to a flight that you really want that costs more and pay with your credit card (don’t go over the credit amount though). If you want to gamble, you’ve got roughly even odds that award taxes and fees will count [more info]
  • JetBlue: Buy a flight less than $137 then cancel the flight after 24 hours and refund to your JetBlue wallet. Side note, whomever figured out that $137+ wouldn’t work but < $137 would is my hero [more info]
  • Spirit: Buying a Big Front Seat upgrade works, and airfare below approximately $60 also works [more info]

We’ve buried the lede though, January is special with American Express because you can change your selected airline once online this month only, even if you’ve already received your incidental credit on a different airline. You’ve got five days left to do that, don’t dally!

Happy Monday!™

Adventures in learning how to bury the lede.

EDITOR’S NOTE:Some of the smartest members of the community have stepped up with guest posts during the holiday break in 2024 and now on Saturdays in early 2025. Special thanks to today’s author mforch for reflections on the hobby. Have a nice weekend!

We are in a golden age of opportunity. We can gamble on the outcomes of a game, presidential election or digital money. New platforms pop up almost weekly, but the strategies that worked last year, last month, last week- don’t always work today. That’s the nature of the game designed to keep you chasing, not winning. But sometimes it isn’t about beating the game—it’s in learning to adapt, redefine, and turn what looks risky into the next big play.

Gambling to me isn’t about the game; it is The Game. Gambling has always been a tool. At the start, the game was simple: win. Win big, win often, and stay ahead of the curve and then hello millions (well, maybe more like thousands). But if you’ve been in the game long enough, you know that the rules change. Arbitrage opportunities disappear. Phone armies get found, fake mustaches no longer work and casinos no longer will taek us. The tricks that worked so well yesterday dry up overnight. But maybe, it’s not only about winning—it’s about not losing. It’s about figuring out a way to just be in the game where you have an edge. If you’re following me this far then high5! And while low margin plays may not sound sexy, that’s what built Vegas.

Here’s the dirty secret: casinos, loyalty programs, rewards schemes are all designed to encourage you to make sub optimal decisions. Maybe it’s redeeming points for gift cards or Amazon purchases, their game is praying on human nature to take the easy way out. But if you learn to harness some basic strategy—like leveraging venture capital to offset losses, using a credit card signup bonus to scale your points game, or simply figuring out how to play long enough without getting burned—you can flip the script.

This is where gambling and travel hacking converge. They’re both about understanding the system and finding leverage points. Sometimes, that means knowing how to lose strategically to set up a win. Sometimes, it’s as simple as knowing when the odds have flipped. Other times, it’s just 4x Entertainment. The tools may change, but the principles stay the same.

Knowing that their game is to take advantage of human nature, playing the long game is a superpower. Small edges can become large rewards over time with consistency. The people chasing flashy wins are the ones funding your business-class seats or your five-star hotel suite. And the people designing these systems know that 99.9% of people will never stop to think about how the game works. That’s what keeps the game going. But if you’re in the 0.1% of people who can adapt, scale, and stay ahead—you’re playing a different game entirely.

Ultimately, the goal isn’t just to win (well it kinda is). It’s to stay in the game long enough to see opportunities others miss. Long enough to realize that sometimes losing isn’t losing- fake money can be real money. As long as you’re still playing, you haven’t lost. What’s old is new again. Because here’s the thing: losing isn’t the opposite of winning.

– @mforch

More lessons on opposites.

  1. Do this now: Register for bonus British Airways Executive Club tier points for paid flights booked by February 14 for travel any time after March.

    British Airways Gold status traditionally was somewhat easy to game and had great value, but after March, the games are largely gone.
  2. United has a status match to Silver, Gold, or Platinum, and an accompanying challenge running through June 30. The match is good for 120 days once it’s activated; but to activate it you have to take a United flight within 90 days of the match approval. You can retain status through the program year (through January 2027) with some Premier Qualifying Flights (PQF) and Premier Qualifying Points (PQP) earning.

    Status is most useful for free checked bags, economy plus seating, and lounge access on international itineraries. In theory you can only match every five years, but also in theory: (1) communism works, and (2) the colors of gummy bears are evenly distributed. (Thanks to FM)
  3. The Chase Marriott cards have increased sign up bonuses:

    – Boundless: $150 statement credit + 100,000 Bonvoy points after $3,000 spend in three months, $99 annual fee
    – Bold: A free night certificate for up to 50,000 points plus 60,000 Bonvoy points after $2,000 spend in three months, no annual fee

    They’ve also introduced Pay Yourself Back on the cards at a rate of 0.8 cents per point, which is more than the market value of a Bonvoy point so actually pretty good. The bad news though? You’re limited to $750 in total redemptions annually. But at $750 + $150, you could turn the Boundless into a $900 sign-up bonus and convert it to a Ritz Carlton card after a year (a move we call the reverse Bonvoy).
  4. Yesterday we talked about a Chase IHG Premier sign-up bonus with five free night certificates, but David let me know that there’s a different version of the sign-up bonus:

    – Premier: 170,000 points after $4,000 spend in three months, $99 annual fee
    – Rewards: 100,000 points after $2,000 spend in three months, no annual fee

    I prefer points offers to capped free-night certificates approximately 122% of the time, but not everyone thinks like I do.

Theory doesn’t always predict the real world.

  1. The Chase IHG Premier Visa has an increased sign-up bonus of five free night certificates, each good for 40,000 points a night, with $4,000 spend in three months. The $99 annual fee is not waived for the first year.

    40,000 points in the IHG program is good for average, mid-tier hotels, and if you stack the free night certificates with fourth night free, you can make this effectively a six night free sign-up bonus.
  2. Qantas will devalue its points program on August 5, raising redemption costs between 5% and 20%. Redemption fees will increase too, because duh. (Yes, some short haul Qantas metal redemptions will decrease in cost; no, that doesn’t make it any better.)
  3. H-E-B stores have a digital coupon for a $20 H-E-B with every $100 Visa, Mastercard, or AmEx gift card purchased in-store through Tuesday, limit one per H-E-B account.

    If only it were possible to have multiple H-E-B accounts through some miracle of modern technology called multiple email addresses.
  4. Southwest has a fare sale for paid and award bookings made by tonight for travel between February 11 and May 22.

    No blackout dates are listed unless you’re traveling to Hawaii or Puerto Rico, then black out days are longer than an entire month.
  5. Breeze Airways has 50% off of base fares with promo code GONOW for travel through May 22, sort of. They took a page from Southwest’s book and added a blackout periods of over an entire month, but decided it’d be funner to apply it to all destinations and not just non-continental US destinations.

Techno-lord mug of the day.

  1. UPromise has a $230 sign-up bonus that stacks with a SoFi $300 bonus for opening checking and savings account and direct depositing $5,000+ within 45 days. There’s no requirement to keep money in the account after your direct deposit.

    For anyone that doesn’t think in terms of math, that’s $530 total. (Thanks to Vince)
  2. American Express offers has new offers for:

    – $50 back on $250+ at Grand Hyatt through April 15
    – $250 back on $1,000+ at Marriott Homes & Villas through April 13
    – $150 back on $750+ at Hiltons in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Latin America through March 31
    – $30 back on $150+ at Turo

    There are games everywhere with these, starting with being able to use a single offer multiple times by thinking differently about saving offers. (Thanks to Tom)
  3. The American Express Gold personal card has increased targeted via referrals for 100,000 Membership Rewards after $6,000 spend in six months.

    In case you’re not seeing the heightened referral, there are also two modified, unintentional links for the same offer with no-lifetime language (NLL). There’s (probably minimal) risk in using modified links that American Express didn’t build, so do your own risk / value judgement. The first link is here, and the second is here. (Thanks to DDG)

More helpful notes for people that think differently.

We once discussed how “budgeting” is a magic phrase in our hobby because it’s a simple response to many financial questions that doesn’t illicit any follow up.

There are questions that need a different answer though, so let me present today’s phrase: “My boss makes me”

Examples:

  • Q: Why do you want to split this large gas transaction into two weird payment amounts?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: Why do you need 18 different email addresses?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: Why do you want to expedite this request?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: why are you using four different loyalty accounts?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: Why do you want to apply the upgrade after booking instead of at booking?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: Why are you flying from IAH-LAX via JAX and IAD?
    A: My boss makes me
  • Q: Why don’t you just drop that box in our self-service drop over there?
    A: (While carrying a box full of $28,000 in gold) My boss makes me hand it to a person
  • Q: Why do you waste time reading MEAB?
    A: My boss makes me

Have a nice Tuesday!

Why are you wearing denim on denim? My boss made me.
  1. Do this now: Check for targeted Chase MyBonus offers for spend through March 31. We’ve seen:

    – +7x on gas, grocery, and dining (IHG)
    – +5x on gas, grocery, and dining (Hyatt, Aeroplan, United, Southwest, and Marriott co-brands)
    – +2%-5% bonus cash back for physical card transactions (Instacart)
    – +5% back on gas, grocery, and dining (Amazon)

    The caps on these are historically $1,500 in spend, but this round it’s been reduced to $1,000. If you get an error while checking, open an incognito browser tab.
  2. Do this now: Check for your targeted United Mile Play bonus offer. I wasn’t targeted this round, but there are offers as high as 40,000-50,000 miles for things like taking three trips of $500+ or flying in a premium seat four times.
  3. Truist Bank has a $400 checking account bonus after receiving two direct deposits totaling at least $1,000 within four months with promo code AFL2425TR1400.

    In theory this works in only a limited set of states. In practice, many brokerage account ACHs and business account ACHs count too. (Thanks to David)
  4. Citi Merchant Offers has $50 back on $250+ at JetBlue.

    These are more like Chase and BankAmeriDeals, not like American Express Offers.
  5. Office Depot/OfficeMax stores have $15 off of $300+ in Visa Giftcards through Saturday. For best results:

    – Buy in even multiples of $200
    – Link your cards to Dosh 🪦
    – Try for multiple transactions back-to-back

    These are Pathward gift cards.
  6. Safeway, Albertsons, Vons, and Just4U stores have a digital coupon for 10x points on Zillions Zift gift cards through Saturday, and on Saturday it may be 12x with the right coupons.

    Zillions Zift convert to eBay and Lowes, amongst other brands.
  7. Giant Food, Stop & Shop, and Giant/Martins stores have 8x points on Zillions Zift through Thursday, limit $2,000 per household.

Happy Monday!

Monday’s hair product, apparently.