EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s post is a Friday guest post in a short summer series running on Fridays while I’m traveling. Today’s author is the juxtaposition of a Prius mixed with an accounting Professor and generally needs no introduction but will get one anyway: Florian.
In the churning world expectation value (EV) and math are afterthoughts based on my experience in many semi-private groups.
There are a few things to remember:
Knowing your EV and return on investment (ROI) can help you better than going with your gut or your emotions, which both bring the dilemma “Should I risk getting shutdown for this?”
For example, Synchrony doesn’t like it when one gamer goes on a cycling spree like a drone buzzing over its target, many do this, without further consideration. Let’s do some math to illustrate the best outcome:
- Assume your best game is buying espresso form JerrryBrothers with your Venmo for 3%
- Assume you also buy espresso with other Synchrony cards that earn less
- Assume you can earn more on the payment side, maybe 2%
- If you spend $40,000 per month and earn a blended average of 3%, you’re earning $1,200 monthly
That’s $1,200 a month for the value of your Synchrony relationship. Assuming one spends month a year in Isle of Man, you’ll net 11 * $1,200 , or $13,200.
If you’re shut down though and it takes you 8 months to get back in, that’s about $9,600.
So, if your edge or game is worth losing $9,600 if it fails then go for it. Remember though, the less you know the more the risk, as you don’t know if and when you get back in.
There are many such games with similar analyses, especially like getting kicked out of Target world or Costco world which might upset P2. You can’t price this risk, you want the P2 happy,
I guess the message is: Always probe like a bot on or not a bot, and knowing your EV and ROI helps you make better decisions.
– Florian
Pictured: The decoder ring used to translate today’s post from Florianish, which is a loose derivate of English, to English, which is the most unstructured language I know of.