Category: Wisdom

The Main Question

A common manufactured spend and churning question is, “how am I going to spend $15,000 in the next three months to meet my sign-up bonus?” This question is especially prevalent when you’re getting started, and focuses primarily on what methods you can use to meet your target.

At some point, your capacity for manufactured spend may grow substantially with experience. When that happens the question often becomes, “what cards do I have that support $100,000 in spend today, and how can I pay them off tomorrow without fraud locks, ACH kiting, or SAR reports?” When you’re asking this question, you’re no longer focusing on methods to meet spend, but instead on how you can increase throughput and move money and credit lines to meet the demand.

When You’re Operating with Big Numbers

The relevant follow-up questions for someone operating in the latter regime become:

  • How do I cycle money through my accounts without kiting?
  • Which card issuers are going to be upset by this kind of spend?
  • What’s the best return I can get on a workhorse card?

The last question is interesting because it shows a big shift in how churning works. Realistically you can’t hope to get enough new cards with sign-up bonuses in a month to support even a few days of six-figure spend. So, the percentage of your profit from sign-up bonuses becomes small, and to an extent unimportant because the proportion of them that you can earn relative to your spend is negligible.

What’s Your Point, Poindexter?

When offers like 99 bonuses of 15,000 Membership Rewards for $4,000 spend come around, several readers typically ask me why anyone cares. The question usually means that the reader hasn’t developed a huge manufactured spend volume, and that’s ok; not everyone wants or needs to hit that volume to be successful. If they do however attain big volume, then the reason becomes instantly clear: it’s a way to increase your return on large spend that’s repeatable 99 times, or maybe even 99*n times.

Have a nice Tuesday friends!

The MEAB Tuesday morning coffee mug.

Let’s talk possibilities:

[Q]: Is it possible to manufacture $100 spend per day?
[A]: Yes

[Q]: $1,000?
[A]: Yes

[Q]: $10,000?
[A]: Yes

[Q]: $100,000?
[A]: Yes

Does this continue forever? No, but the ceiling is high. Always be probing.

Is it possible that this is OJ?

Introduction

I’ve been slowly collecting images of compromised gift cards found at stores for over a year for a future gift card scam spotting post, and while those attacks vary, they’re all basically some form of tampering with a physical gift card, its package, or its barcode. You’ll find them in the wild as compromised Visas, Mastercards, Apple cards, BestBuy cards, or just about anything else. (Side note: If you have example pictures of that type of scam and wouldn’t mind if I include them in the post whenever I write it, I’d appreciate an email. I promise I’ll write it before the heat death of the universe or you’ll get double your money back.)

The New Scam

Over the weekend there was a new type of gift card scam (albeit an old type of network security scam) to hit the community: a hacked email inbox. This matters for two reasons:

  • Many gift card buyers and resellers keep all their card numbers in a shared Google Sheet, accessible with your Google account
  • Physical Happy gift cards are redeemed online and a link for later retrieval is sent to your email

If a hacker gets control of your email, they’ve probably got access to your gift cards too.

Staying Safe

Not to sound like a network security prognosticon (yes, I made that term up), but there are steps you can take to help protect yourself from a similar attack:

  • Always use two-factor authentication on your network accounts
  • Get rid of any dormant accounts that may have access to sensitive information
  • Double check your sharing settings on sheets or documents with sensitive information
  • Prefer Google Authenticator instead of SMS messages for two-factor authentication
  • Archive and remove old information from your documents and sheets

Finally, if you find yourself in a similar situation, do a few things immediately:

  • Change your passwords
  • Call the card issuers and report fraud (the good news is you still probably have all the card numbers too)
  • Reach out to others in the community who can offer level headed advice after the dust settles

If this happened to you, or happens to you in the future, I’m sorry, that sucks. If it hasn’t happened to you yet, consider making the above steps part of your regular housekeeping.

Good luck!

Prognostico: The network security prognosticon.

When you talk to a bank to change something, ask for something, appeal something, or to close something, you’ll often be asked some form of “Why are you doing this?” Usually customer service is asking for two reasons: first, because they’ve got metrics and they need to keep track of reasons that people call, and second, they’ve got practiced responses and rebuttals for common objections.

There’s a simple answer to “Why?” that almost always ends the conversation without any further discussion and you should add to your repertoire: “Budgeting”

For example:

[Q] Why do you have so many AmEx cards?
[A] Budgeting

[CS] This card offers thousands of dollars in savings for a small annual fee, why would you want to close it?
[Churner] Budgeting

[Q] Why do you have 27 checking accounts at our bank?
[A] Budgeting

[Q] Why are you downgrading this card two weeks after you upgraded it?
[A]: Budgeting

[Q]: I see a bunch of back-to-back charges for $49x.xx. Why didn’t you just run a single big charge?
[A]: Budgeting

[Q]: Why did you receive nearly a hundred envelopes from American Express with your name and Roman numerals?
[A]: Budgeting

[Q]: How come your American Express Business Platinum card is stored on your daughter’s Delta SkyMiles profile?
[A]: Budgeting

[Q]: Why did you open a teen spending debit card when you don’t have kids?
[A]: Budgeting

[Q]: Why does MEAB exist?
[A]: Budgeting

Good luck, and happy Tuesday!

For bonus points, send template dashboards showing your “budget” to customer service.

In scientific circles we occasionally discuss the “epistemic gap”, which refers to things that are knowable in principle but for whatever reason we still don’t know them.

In manufactured spend there’s a favorite epistemic gap of mine: How much spend can you possibly generate in a day? You can of course ask related questions too, such as:

  • How much spend in a day if you spend only from home?
  • How much spend in a day with a grocery category multiplier?
  • How much spend in a day with a single card issuer?

I could tell you what my records for the above are, but assure you that my records aren’t world records. I can confidently say that the world records for each of the above are beyond an average American annual household’s income though.

What’s the point? If you’re not shutdown, you haven’t filled the epistemic gap, so consider whether bigger scaling makes sense or whether you’re exactly at the level you’re comfortable with.

The epistemic gap, illustrated for visual learners.

We’re in an extended period of Chase shutdowns that started a week ago, and while we don’t know the complete causes, related factors might be:

  • Heavy use at a manufactured spender fitness club
  • Earning a sign-up bonus at a manufactured spender fitness club or popular rebate site, even with light spending
  • Using Chase Ink card links that bypassed backend business approval logic

If you’re caught up in shutdowns, there are options to squeeze Chase back, not all is lost:

  • Call or write the Chase Executive office and open a case
    This is only likely to be fruitful if you’re shutdown for rewards abuse and don’t have heavy manufactured spend, or if you’re shutdown due to bust-out risk. For body builders, I don’t expect a ton of success here
  • Exercise the arbitration clause in your account agreements
    I’m not an attorney and I’m definitely not your attorney, so don’t take this as legal advice. I imagine that having a manufactured spend friendly attorney on your side couldn’t hurt though
  • Wait seven to ten years and you may find yourself back in
    Yes it’s a long time, but it’s not forever
  • Find new players
    Isolate addresses to avoid any contagion spread through
  • Try and open a Chase Private Client account in branch
    Wait six months to do it, and you’ll need $100,000 or more in assets typically
  • Pivot to other banks for cash, United, and Hyatt
    Bilt is an option. You weren’t using Ultimate Rewards for much else, I assume?

Fortunately there are thousands of banks and credit unions out there that offer credit cards that still want your business. Always be probing!

Squeezing Chase if Chase were a GM car.

An unfortunate side-effect of manufactured spend and churning is that sometimes you’ll have a bank account or credit card shut down. We saw an unusual spike in shutdown reports from Chase starting Wednesday for a group of spenders going bigger than Chase liked (all tied directly to dealings with a private manufactured spend supplement group, so don’t stress that you’re on the chopping block if you don’t know what I’m talking about). The shutdowns weren’t exactly unexpected, but it still sucks for anyone involved.

Let’s talk strategies to protect yourself in case you’re ever staring at the business end of a bank’s shutdown pistol.

Strategy One: Apple Pay

In nearly all bank shutdowns, the first indication of something gone pear-shaped is a notification from Apple Pay that your card was removed from your wallet, and this week’s shutdowns were no different. So an obvious strategy is: add at least one card from each major bank to your Apple Wallet to serve as a shutdown early warning system.

Sorry Android fans, I don’t know of an equivalent early warning on that platform.

Strategy Two: Transfer Points Out

Different banks have different policies for how long you can use or transfer your points after a shutdown (Chase is the most generous here at 30 days, but plenty of other large banks will forfeit your points the day of shutdown). Then, the strategy here is: transfer your points out immediately at the moment your early warning system triggers. And a bonus, secondary strategy: with many banks you can transfer points over the phone with a customer service representative even if the online transfer functionality is disabled.

Strategy Three: The Strike Back

Usually banks are lumbering, decades or centuries old, dysfunctional entities with disparate systems all tied together through an unholy combination of voodoo prayers, Cobol, and Javascript, and as a result when one part of a bank starts a shutdown, other parts of the bank and other computer systems won’t know about it for hours or days. That leads to another strategy: if an early warning system triggers and a card is shutdown, call the bank immediately and close all of your accounts, also known as the strike back.

When you preemptively close all of your accounts, you’re often preventing bank systems from running any business logic on your profile because they’re designed not to operate on closed profiles. So, instead of a system updating a database to mark your social security number as banned, the system moves on and you’ve probably got another shot at being in the bank’s good graces after the dust settles and you open new accounts in the future.

Good luck, and have a nice weekend!

Bank pneumatic tube to ethernet adapters, used as a communication gateway between legacy and modern banking systems.

Saying American Express’s IT is quirky is like saying Lady Gaga’s outfits are slightly outside of normal; it’s basically the understatement of the year. The quirks are great for us because they open up opportunities, or quirkitunities if you prefer, for all sorts of shenanigans. Today we’ll focus on a single quirkitunity: American Express Offers.

American Express Offers come in a couple of different varieties. You’ll see great ones that are only presented to you if the stars align and American Express likes you, like “50% off of up to $1,000 in spend at FedEx”. You’ll also see, err, stupid ones that are available to anyone with a pulse like “3% back on up to $250 in purchases at Urban Outfitters” (sorry to all my BDG jeans fans). If American Express’s systems see you as a gamer, you won’t get the good ones but you can have 3% off of BDG jeans to your heart’s content, provided that your heart’s content doesn’t exceed $250.

Fortunately for us, there’s a way to bypass the “stars align an American Express likes you” algorithm: Confirm your card again. That is, one of the quirks of American Express’s system is that you can confirm a card as many times as you like, and the best offers will show up during card confirmation. So, it’s a good idea to visit americanexpress.com/confirmcard periodically and look for offers, that’s where the good stuff hides.

The “stars align and American Express likes you” server rack crashing when you (re)confirm your cards.