Category: Wisdom

Introduction

Let’s chat about the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But, before we get in too deep though, I’ll remind anyone who doesn’t remember immediately what exactly that effect is (a reminder for basically all of the other readers but you):

Dunning-Kruger Effect: When your confidence in a subject books an Emirates First flight to the moon, but your competence in that subject gets you a one way ticket to Lubbock, TX on Southwest.

– Remedial Psychology by non-Psychologist MEAB, Volume II

Practice

Manufactured spenders and churners are an astute, quick-thinking bunch, at least on average. They’re also happy to give advice and help others out of a tricky situation. Put those traits together though, and your average personality in the hobby has a tendency to speak with more bravado than is strictly warranted. That is, a lot of us are walking Dunning-Kruger Effect bots. Need a concrete example? You’re reading an article from a guy who’s formal psychological training consists of an expired library card. A few more examples:

  • “<Bank> shutdowns are permanent”
  • “That trick hasn’t worked since 2017”
  • “I’ve done <churning thing> seven times this month, it’s completely safe!”

There are of course longer examples too, but you’ll have to find those on another blog that has at least four pop-up ads and two referral links for the Chase Sapphire Preferred™©®Ωµ® card.

Fin

Let’s end with a conversation I overheard:

Everyone else: “Ok poindexter, so what?”
MEAB: “Listen to everyone in the hobby, we’re a smart bunch. But, apply appropriate skepticism.”
Everyone else: “Boring! Where are the free flights and stuff?”
MEAB: “…”

Have a nice weekend friends!

The guy who already did the thing seven times this month’s home plumbing

Even though I play one on TV*, I’m definitely not a psychologist. I have, however, observed a few things about manufactured spenders:

  • They have a tendency toward being rather extra
  • Their intelligence is generally higher than average
  • Their social-skills tend to be focused on the short term, except for the next item
  • Their memory about being wronged lasts a long time

Taken together, there are a conclusions we can draw that seem to be accurate based on lots of observation in the space:

  • Friendly relationships need active work, or they fade somewhat quickly
  • The memory of when someone feels wronged lasts forever

Like a good credit union, working to maintain a relationship boosts profitability and longevity. Also like a good credit union, nuking the thing isn’t going to help you at all. Instead, you end up blacklisted by your target, their inner circles, and probably by plenty of casual observers too. Is there a time and place for that sort of thing? I’m not sure, but if you’re going to do it be deliberate about the time and the place, like the Bikini Atoll I guess.

Have a nice weekend friends!

*This is a lie. I don’t play one on TV. Once I pretended to though. No, that’s a lie too.

Churners are good at jokes though.

There are more articles about how to optimize your daily organic spend with the right credit card portfolios then there are people on the planet (citation needed). I think you should ignore all of them. Why? Since you’re here, I’m going to assume you fall into one of two buckets, each with its own reason.

Bucket 1: The Players

As a churning player, you’ve got at least an intermediate understanding of manufactured spend and its execution. You probably know how to spend many thousands of dollars a week, a day, an hour, or maybe even more frequently, and those thousands of dollars mean at least many thousands of points earned in the same time frame.

On the other hand, your regular spend just doesn’t matter much in comparison. Even if you had a magical 10x card, your $15 lunch would earn you 150 points, which isn’t worth thinking about unless it’s purely for entertainment value. Those 150 points probably represent much less than a tenth of a percent of your earning, so don’t stress it. Any card will do.

Bucket 2: The Dreamers

If you’re not yet a churning player, you’re probably dreaming of becoming one (again, otherwise I don’t think you’d be reading this). If so, I’m sure it’s tempting to analyze which of the major bank cards are best for your lunch dining spend. Maybe it’s the American Express Personal Gold that earns 4x on dining, the Citi Strata Premier that earns 3x, the Chase Sapphire Preferred that earns 3x, or the Wells Fargo Autograph Journey that earns 3x? Well, maybe it’s one of those, but:

  • they have different annual fees
  • they have different transfer partners
  • they have different cash-out values
  • they have different ancillary benefits

So, which is best given that they’re all different? Maybe you need to build a spreadsheet, list your common expenses, the current point valuations from BigBankBlogger™, the coupon credits each card offers, the sign-up bonuses, when you can cancel the cards and still get an annual-fee refund, whether the card makes sense next to your quarterly 5x earning card capped at $1,500, and a dozen other factors. That’ll be a cool spreadsheet! But, you’ll sink hours into that sheet, it’ll go stale in months, and you’ll find that you’re still a dreamer.

So instead of optimizing your small organic spend, consider spending your would-be spreadsheet time figuring out how to move from dreamer to player. I guarantee you’ll make more points by doing so than the incremental bump you’ll get from an extra 2x when you go out to lunch.

The Big Picture

Optimizing your organic spend is almost certainly a poor investment on your time, unless it’s done purely for entertainment purposes, or because it makes people like MEAB annoyed, or maybe both.

Happy Thursday!

From the page where I got the statistic about the number of point optimization articles on the internet.

Bilt is back in the Churn-o-Tron 5000 news cycle, this time because they sent a bunch of “oops, my bad, I guess we do actually need customers” emails to existing card holders that had been soft or hard denied for conversion to the new Cardless versions of the card.

That’s positive when taken at face value, but it also illustrates a critical point in churning:

Simplicity beats complexity, unless the complexity is really, really valuable
– MEAB tome of apocryphal wisdom

I’m going to wager that you can’t find a churner who can argue that the new version of Bilt has any heir of simplicity with a straight face. Assuming that’s true, you’d better find a metric ton of value in the new Bilt ecosystem before you decide to join.

If a metric ton of value isn’t obvious though, maybe consider that your time will be better spent by using a Citi Double Cash card, Venture X card, American Express Blue Business Plus card, or Chase Ink Unlimited card and looking for other plays instead of taking hours learning the ins-and-outs of the most complex credit card program ever invented for the possibility of good returns before Cardless axes you. With all of those non-Bilt cards:

  • You’ll earn 2x on all spend (1.5x for the Ink Unlimited)
  • The annual fees are simple
  • The programs all have valuable transfer partners
  • You don’t have to spend hours learning how to use the card
  • Richard Kerr won’t be watching your plays in real time

So naturally the follow-on question is: Well, is there a metric ton of value in the Bilt program?

I think generally the answer is absolutely not for a whale, maybe for a dolphin, and possibly for a shrimp. But, you do you friends, and obviously what you know is different than what I know. Let me leave you with a new word, courtesy of Chris from All the Hacks: Bilted, which (I’m definitely paraphrasing and editorializing his words) means “So much complexity that you want to give up and laugh, but maybe there’s a good deal behind it all.”

Have a nice Tuesday friends!

With the right you complexity you can drive in a river like churning legend Danny too. But should you?

We’ve had enough time in January to learn what works for the annual-fee-endowed American Express Platinum and Business Platinum card $200 calendar year airline incidental credits. So, how do we make those incidental credits worth something? The best quasi-cashout options seem to be:

  • United: Buy TravelBank credit directly. It expires in five years and can be used to pay for United flights. You can usually sell this for 88%+, and with a little trickery you can turn them into flexible credits good for other people and on other airlines  [more info]
  • Delta: Buy airfare and pay partially with a gift card or travel credit, pay for the remainder with your card (don’t go over $200 though). Alternatively if you have a co-branded American Express Delta card and are eligible for Pay with Miles with, pay partially with miles and the remainder will be credited provided it’s less than $250 [more info]
  • Alaska: Buy a seat upgrade after booking and chat your “seat selection fee” doesn’t post, buy a flight paid partially with Alaska wallet funds and partially with your AmEx (less than $100), then refund to your wallet after 24 hours, or change a ticket to a higher fare as long as its less than $200 in additional cost [more info]
  • American: Buy cheap airfare, then change it to a flight that you really want that costs more and pay with your credit card (don’t go over the credit amount though). If you want to gamble, you’ve got roughly even odds that award taxes and fees will count [more info]
  • Southwest: Buy a flight less than $109, or book an international flight with taxes under $109 per ticket, then refund to a travel credit. Combine with the Choice Extra fare bucket to get around name-locking  [more info]
  • JetBlue: There aren’t new 2026 datapoints yet, but likely 2025’s version still works: Buy a flight less than $137 then cancel the flight after 24 hours and refund to your JetBlue wallet. For best results, $74 Blue Basic fares will have approximately $99 Blue fares (thanks to Brian C) [more info]
  • Spirit: Gutsy choice friend! I’ll be surprised if Spirit is still around by April, so make it quick. A Big Front Seat upgrade works, and airfare below approximately $60 also works [more info]

For bonus points, you’ve still got time to cash out your travel credits using last year’s selected airline, get reimbursed, and then change to a new airline online by January 31.

Have a nice Wednesday friends!

Haven’t had enough of 2026 style yet? Here’s 2026 fashion, apparently.

We talked way back in 2021 about loosey goosey language in Citi’s Terms and Conditions that let you double dip sign-up bonuses on some cards. A lot of things have changed since 2021 (duh), and Citi games have changed slightly too. Let’s pick a particular card, like the stupidly named Citi AAdvantage Globe Mastercard, and dive into its Terms and Conditions:

  • “bonus miles are not available if you have received a new account bonus from a [Citi AA Globe card] in the past 48 months”
  • “bonus miles are not available … if you converted another Citi credit card account on which you earned a bonus in the last 48 months into a [Citi AA Globe card]”

So, you can’t get a bonus if you had one in the past four years from the same card, effectively. With that in mind, let’s go over a couple of Citi’s application rules:

  • Must wait eight days between applications
  • No more than two cards every 65 days.
  • Bonus eligibility is attached at the time of application

With a card like the Globe, you’ve got four months to hit the spend bonus, which gives you time for apply for four cards within the first card’s bonus window. Specifically, you could apply on day 0, day 8, day 65, and day 74, and you’d still meet Citi’s application rules and have another 56 days before the bonus period on the first card is up. Once you’ve been approved for all the cards, which frankly is unlikely in-and-of-itself, you can hit the bonus spend on all four, and get the bonus four times. Wowza.

Now let’s talk about reality. Should you do this? Almost certainly not, because:

  • AA bans users with too many bonuses in a year, and this will probably trigger it
  • You’d have four new Citi accounts on your credit report in a couple of months
  • Citi fraud analysts won’t like what they see if they look
  • Other banks won’t like what they see if they look
  • A single Globe card is generally a bad option, four of them is four times as many bad options

Ok, so the concept is cool in theory and bad in practice, why talk about it? Citi isn’t the only bank out there, and you may find that your local LardLand Credit Union in Lubbock, TX has credit card bonuses that work the same way, but don’t necessarily report to the credit bureaus. Now you’re in business.

Happy Tuesday!

More bad ideas in scale.

There are lots of relatively obvious ways to scale your churning, like:

  • Multiple players
  • Multiple accounts
  • Multiple phone numbers

Let’s say that the fictitious FinTech, auspiciously named FinTechX, earns you $22 every time you move $1,000 through the platform. Let’s further assume that moving $1,000 takes you a couple of minutes each time, and that you’re limited to $1,000 per rolling 24 hours.

Great, you’ve found cheap money! But, watch out for things that will inevitably slow your earn, like:

  • Forgetting to load right when you can, pushing your next 24 hour window later and later
  • Fumbling through different profiles, possibly missing one in the process
  • Not spinning up even more accounts because it’s more hassle every day
  • Missing days altogether because you’re too busy

Automation fixes effectively all of those issues, and frees you up to do other things. Don’t ignore it! Quick, no-context options for (relatively) easy automation:

Happy Wednesday, and if you got booted from the ‘Kate Spade Portal Sadness’ Telegram group, please rejoin – it was a Telegram bug.

Another automation option, but it’s not cheap or easy.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Matt is on vacation until at or around January 1, 2026. Until then we have guest posts, today’s post is brought to you by Matt’s longest churning buddy and all around super-guy, Tyler. Special thanks for the post!

Brokers help us leverage our spending game. From gift cards, gold, rakes for SideShowBob, UR points, MR transfers, iPads, Amex offers, buyer’s groups and more, brokers serve as a conduit to buy/sell goods and services. There are dozens, probably hundreds, of brokers who are seasoned veterans with resources, connections, and forums that can help bridge us to more opportunities and a larger network. They are valuable to us in our spend game.

There are plenty of elements when considering which broker to work with.  I present the Broker Point Factor Analysis (BPFA), a proven method (not really) that allows you to evaluate brokers that will guarantee (no actual guarantee) your path to financial success (probably not).  It is a basic point factor analysis method that assigns points based on identified factors.

So how do we use the BPFA? It is a highly scientific model that you must have an IQ greater than your local average city temperature in July. I vacationed to northern Wisconsin to improve my chances when I studied this model. A few components of this model:

  • BPFA factors are subjective, so consider factors that are important to you when building your BPFA.
  • Points are given based on how each broker is rated in the Broker Point Factor (BPF).
  • Total up your points and see which broker best aligns with your factors.

The certified MEAB Business Analyst has put together an example using two hypothetical brokers: Jim and Dwight. *I hope there aren’t brokers who go by this name, there is no correlation intended. File a complaint with the MEAB Fairness Officer if you feel violated. I think his name is Toby, I can’t remember. Below is the analysis:

BPF: Costs, fees and rates – clear, competitive, based on market conditions. 

Broker Jim: Jim posts rates that are competitive, perhaps not always the highest. They post in a consistent format that makes it easy to digest and aren’t afraid to share any hidden costs or fees. 

Broker Dwight: Dwight routinely under prices to competitors, sometimes a decent amount. Terms can seem vague and when questioned, it might be ambiguous.  

Points: Jim – 1  Dwight – 0 

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: We all want top dollar for our products, and brokers also want the highest margin. Some are smaller with more spread, others are larger with more overhead that need more volume. 

BPF: Ease of use – easy UI/submission process, simplicity. Do they limit cap, speed of deal posting and action. Spreadsheets, websites, forms, links that are intuitive.

Broker Jim: Jim has a nicely dedicated format for his deals. His deals go through email/channels in an efficient format that is also mobile friendly. Jim is always one of the first to put out deals and prices. Jim rarely has flaws in his process, and when we see a deal from Jim, we intuitively know the format and what to do.

Broker Dwight: Dwight has a few different inconsistent methods he uses, which can leave users a bit lost. He sometimes uses Telegram, or WhatsApp, or slack, or email, all of which have different functionality and user preferences that can feel discombobulated. Sometimes dates are wrong, there are typos, and it feels a bit sloppy.

Points: Jim – 3  Dwight – 1

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: Larger brokers have more systems and people in place to navigate ease of use. Though, some have an overengineered process that may not align with what you find easy. Nothing should feel overengineered, and more steps can lead to errors.

BPF: Liquidity, reliability, execution speed:  Fast, on-time, consistent payments. Can weather market fluctuations or issues with end users. 

Broker Jim: Jim pays fast. Like, REALLY fast. Sometimes you panic because funds hit your account before you are expecting. 

Broker Dwight: Dwight has reasonable payout periods. Though, he consistently needs to be reminded once he is past his date. In addition, he has had end user payment issues that delay payment processing. Payments come from various sources and time periods vary, so it is hard to track. 

Points: Jim – 8  Dwight –  -2 

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: Payment delays aren’t usually a big deal as long as it is communicated. More concerning, payment delays may be a result of the broker not having enough money. This can be a potential sign for if something goes wrong, the broker may not have the funds for a period that makes you feel uneasy. 

BPF: Customer Service: Type of support and assistance in all phases of transaction: before, during, and after transactions.

Broker Jim: Is active in his community. He responds to people’s questions publicly when asked, and also responds to private DMs. During initial contact, he is friendly and transparent with new members. He is timely, courteous, and has a knack for doing the right thing.

Broker Dwight: *crickets*

Points: Jim – 2  Dwight – 0 

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: It is easy to be a good broker when things run smooth, though customer service should be top priority. 

BPF: Conflict management: How they navigate problems, disputes and errors. Identifies, addresses, and resolves disagreements in a constructive way that minimizes negative outcomes and maximizes positive ones. 

Broker Jim: is direct in his communication and timely. If there are errors, you are notified immediacy, know what is wrong, and what to do. He offers to support you (not hand hold) with words of guidance as he brokers see more conflicts than buyers do. 

Broker Dwight: Immediately puts blame on his customers. Blames them for errors, makes assumptions, and is belittling to customers in a snarky way. 

Points: Jim – 3  Dwight – 0

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: It isn’t about eliminating conflict, sh!t happens, yet it’s about managing it in a way that leads to growth and better outcomes in the future. “It isn’t what you say, it is how you say it.”

BPF: Terms: What are risks for each party, and do they hold all parties to terms within reason. Clear, defined, yet not overly engineered or heavily unfavorable for one party over another.

Broker Jim: Has terms that are reasonable and even has a clause that protects buyers from fraud. There is a limit on when to submit, how long risk is for products (cards, fuel points, bookings, etc.).  

Broker Dwight: has very long risk periods for his buyers. Essentially makes them accountable no matter what. They almost seem intentionally vague. In addition, he randomly posts updated rules in his forums and channels while not updating his primary terms.  

Points: Jim – 4  Dwight – 1

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: Of course we need rules, this isn’t Nam. focusing on the intent and spirit of the rules more important. In addition, one should always be able to find a brokers terms easily. When in doubt, always ask a brokers terms. Don’t be afraid to constructively suggest changes to terms that are equitable and reasonable.

BPF: Communication: Timely, clear, reasonable in all methods: 1:1 conversations, through chat, to their channels and audience. 

Broker Jim:  has an innate ability to nearly know all of his buyers. He isn’t overly goofy, has fun when appropriate yet still has a business oriented demeanor. When you message Jim, he responds promptly. When a question comes up on a deal he posted, he responds timely or his other buyers chime in to help. 

Broker Dwight: doesn’t engage much. He posts deals and allows his channel to become overwhelmed with fodder. At times, he even contradicts himself with his own guidelines. His brevity at times leave much to be desired.

Points: Jim –  5 Dwight – 2

MEAB Business Analyst rationale: A predictable broker is a good broker. Predictability follows a regular, reliable pattern that makes future events or actions easier to foresee. They anticipate problems before they happen and are clear in their interactions.

Total Points Jim: 26 points, Dwight: 2

The point is obvious: work with brokers that have a value proposition that aligns with yours. I don’t think there are inherently ‘good’ or ‘bad’ brokers. There are brokers that have different modalities by which they operate. If something feels off with a broker, it probably is. Diversify your business among different brokers. Work towards a win-win with your brokers. Treat them with respect and they will return the favor. In conclusion, there are multiple factors that should be considered when utilizing a broker. So do as Kenny Rogers says: know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.

– Tyler

Pictured: Tyler’s broker decision tree.