Category: Wisdom

When you’ve hit a groove in churning or in manufactured spend, it’s easy to get stuck in an opportunity cost loop, like:

  • When I hit my favorite deal, I’m earning $<XXX>
  • I can hit that deal every <YYY> time units
  • After <ZZZ> runs, I’ll have earned enough for [COOL THING]

It’s all true on its face, but it often leads to a problem when you go on vacation, to a funeral, or to Lubbock for the world’s worst bachelorette party: It’s really hard to unplug, and that’s not because the math stops working. Rather, it’s because the math keeps working, even when you’re out of the loop.

How do you combat the math that won’t stop? You’ve got a few options:

  • Automate it
  • Delegate it
  • Batch it
  • Live without it

Some combination of all of those things is ok too, just make a conscious choice to do them ahead of time the next time you’re going offline.

Happy Tuesday!

Who wouldn’t want to be present for the food spread at the Lubbock bachelorette party?

Today’s post is a timely guest post by James, the host of the Churn and Burn podcast. This his his third guest post, see his first and second for further reading. Special thanks to James!

The manufactured spend (MS) world is full of “in-group” and “out-group” code phrases that tend to get repeated within the social circles of our second job hobby.  One of my favorites: Social Engineering.  Typically, we use this phrase to reference our unwanted contact with the out-groups.  “I just had to socially engineer my way through this Chase reinstatement call” is something many of us have said to many a P2.  Every manufactured spender has their own unique skill set with strengths and weaknesses.  Social Engineering is perhaps one of the most underrated ones, and I excel at it. My personal background is heavily grounded in acting and public speaking.  I’m not a numbers guy.  In another life, I could have eschewed my churning career for one as a stage actor.  It’s part of the reason why I have a podcast that caters only to the worst of the degens, instead of a blog with a cult following.

However, something that’s rarely spoken about is the role of social engineering and its role within the in-group.  No one likes to talk about it, at least not openly… but it’s a huge component in this space, so much so that MEAB himself started an entire blog just to open himself up to it.

I know exactly four different “Matts” in the world of MS.  Recently, one of them shared a theory with me that redefined the way I view everything we do:

“Everyone feels like they are trying to level up in MS, but there are actually no levels. It’s a circle. Wherever you enter the circle feels like the bottom.  Someone on the left side of the circle interacts with the right side of the circle. They both have a new piece of info, their first goal with that info is to use it to level up. Whoever they believe is at a higher level than them now gets that info for “free” because they try and leverage that info.“

We could go back and forth for hours about whether it’s appropriate to “trade” plays or how people should go about determining who they deem worthy to share sensitive info with.  I’ve seen countless MS empires rise and fall based purely on what info was or was not shared and who did or did not share it.  I’ve been rewarded tremendously just because I shared the right thing with the right person, and have been quite literally excommunicated from certain plays because I refused to share sensitive info with others.  But I do think we can all agree on one thing about Matt’s theory: knowing where you are in that circle (and where others are circling) is absolutely critical.  

We all want to believe that [insert name here] Points and Miles influencer with 100,000 followers is secretly hiding several high level plays that would shake us to our very core if we knew what they were truly doing behind the scenes.  We all want to think that the people who speak at the yearly meetups are all in some back room in between seminars talking about how they’re doing 6 figures of MS per day using some crazy loophole that they’re only sharing with the other whales because they’re part of the in-group, while the other 300 minnows who paid for their tickets are outside watching James Churn and Burn explain (poorly) how to maximize their Hilton Free Night certs.  Here’s the rub, though: I can confirm, fairly conclusively, that with a few notable exceptions, the aforementioned picture I drew above detailing some kind of insider points blogger mafia is mostly a fiction.  These are not the droids you are looking for, and the real closeted whales are probably sitting in the back of those seminars, chilling on their laptop, doing more MS in an hour than the person on stage will do all month.  

So I want everyone to stop and think right now.  In all seriousness, ask yourself this question:  For every play you’ve discovered with some amount of outside help: did you ask for it, or did it just spontaneously fall into your lap through some variance of “right place, right time” happenstance?  More importantly: Can you even remember how you found the play in the first place?

One thing’s for sure.  If you heard about it from a publicly hosted Youtube video on a wildly popular influencer’s channel, chances are quite good that you’re somewhere at the bottom of the circle.  

– James

It could be worse than the bottom of the circle.

Introduction

The continuous need to feed the content monster occasionally means every related blog out there writes about the same thing. This week’s President’s Day version hit with the news that United TravelBank hasn’t been reimbursed for American Express airline incidental credits since about 10 days ago.

Analysis

Mr. T and I share a lot of common beliefs about churning, and this event was no exception. I interviewed him for more insight (special thanks for taking the time out of his busy schedule to chat):

[MEAB]: Is it actually broken?
[Mr. T]: It might be, fool! Or it might not be. Nobody knows yet.

[MEAB]: Has this happened before?
[Mr. T]: Yes, I seen this movie before! :Late 2020, in early 2024, and in late 2024. This ain’t our first rodeo.

[MEAB]: How many times has it been declared dead?
[Mr. T]: In the last day? Or you talking lifetime? Either way, a whole lot.

[MEAB]: If it is dead, is that the end?
[Mr. T]: There are other options even for Newark and San Francisco chumps. I pity the fool who doesn’t think so!

[MEAB]: Should I use other options ASAP?
[Mr. T]: Unless you gotta close that card down in a couple of weeks, how about just sit tight and see how it shakes out?

[MEAB]: Should I write my own 2,000 word post declaring it dead?
[Mr. T]: Only if you stretch first, that’s a lot of reaching!

Have a nice Tuesday, and “never dig a grave before the deal’s even cold”.

Next up: Turning American Express Airline Incidental credits into cereal.

Introduction

Let’s chat about the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But, before we get in too deep though, I’ll remind anyone who doesn’t remember immediately what exactly that effect is (a reminder for basically all of the other readers but you):

Dunning-Kruger Effect: When your confidence in a subject books an Emirates First flight to the moon, but your competence in that subject gets you a one way ticket to Lubbock, TX on Southwest.

– Remedial Psychology by non-Psychologist MEAB, Volume II

Practice

Manufactured spenders and churners are an astute, quick-thinking bunch, at least on average. They’re also happy to give advice and help others out of a tricky situation. Put those traits together though, and your average personality in the hobby has a tendency to speak with more bravado than is strictly warranted. That is, a lot of us are walking Dunning-Kruger Effect bots. Need a concrete example? You’re reading an article from a guy who’s formal psychological training consists of an expired library card. A few more examples:

  • “<Bank> shutdowns are permanent”
  • “That trick hasn’t worked since 2017”
  • “I’ve done <churning thing> seven times this month, it’s completely safe!”

There are of course longer examples too, but you’ll have to find those on another blog that has at least four pop-up ads and two referral links for the Chase Sapphire Preferred™©®Ωµ® card.

Fin

Let’s end with a conversation I overheard:

Everyone else: “Ok poindexter, so what?”
MEAB: “Listen to everyone in the hobby, we’re a smart bunch. But, apply appropriate skepticism.”
Everyone else: “Boring! Where are the free flights and stuff?”
MEAB: “…”

Have a nice weekend friends!

The guy who already did the thing seven times this month’s home plumbing

Even though I play one on TV*, I’m definitely not a psychologist. I have, however, observed a few things about manufactured spenders:

  • They have a tendency toward being rather extra
  • Their intelligence is generally higher than average
  • Their social-skills tend to be focused on the short term, except for the next item
  • Their memory about being wronged lasts a long time

Taken together, there are a conclusions we can draw that seem to be accurate based on lots of observation in the space:

  • Friendly relationships need active work, or they fade somewhat quickly
  • The memory of when someone feels wronged lasts forever

Like a good credit union, working to maintain a relationship boosts profitability and longevity. Also like a good credit union, nuking the thing isn’t going to help you at all. Instead, you end up blacklisted by your target, their inner circles, and probably by plenty of casual observers too. Is there a time and place for that sort of thing? I’m not sure, but if you’re going to do it be deliberate about the time and the place, like the Bikini Atoll I guess.

Have a nice weekend friends!

*This is a lie. I don’t play one on TV. Once I pretended to though. No, that’s a lie too.

Churners are good at jokes though.

There are more articles about how to optimize your daily organic spend with the right credit card portfolios then there are people on the planet (citation needed). I think you should ignore all of them. Why? Since you’re here, I’m going to assume you fall into one of two buckets, each with its own reason.

Bucket 1: The Players

As a churning player, you’ve got at least an intermediate understanding of manufactured spend and its execution. You probably know how to spend many thousands of dollars a week, a day, an hour, or maybe even more frequently, and those thousands of dollars mean at least many thousands of points earned in the same time frame.

On the other hand, your regular spend just doesn’t matter much in comparison. Even if you had a magical 10x card, your $15 lunch would earn you 150 points, which isn’t worth thinking about unless it’s purely for entertainment value. Those 150 points probably represent much less than a tenth of a percent of your earning, so don’t stress it. Any card will do.

Bucket 2: The Dreamers

If you’re not yet a churning player, you’re probably dreaming of becoming one (again, otherwise I don’t think you’d be reading this). If so, I’m sure it’s tempting to analyze which of the major bank cards are best for your lunch dining spend. Maybe it’s the American Express Personal Gold that earns 4x on dining, the Citi Strata Premier that earns 3x, the Chase Sapphire Preferred that earns 3x, or the Wells Fargo Autograph Journey that earns 3x? Well, maybe it’s one of those, but:

  • they have different annual fees
  • they have different transfer partners
  • they have different cash-out values
  • they have different ancillary benefits

So, which is best given that they’re all different? Maybe you need to build a spreadsheet, list your common expenses, the current point valuations from BigBankBlogger™, the coupon credits each card offers, the sign-up bonuses, when you can cancel the cards and still get an annual-fee refund, whether the card makes sense next to your quarterly 5x earning card capped at $1,500, and a dozen other factors. That’ll be a cool spreadsheet! But, you’ll sink hours into that sheet, it’ll go stale in months, and you’ll find that you’re still a dreamer.

So instead of optimizing your small organic spend, consider spending your would-be spreadsheet time figuring out how to move from dreamer to player. I guarantee you’ll make more points by doing so than the incremental bump you’ll get from an extra 2x when you go out to lunch.

The Big Picture

Optimizing your organic spend is almost certainly a poor investment on your time, unless it’s done purely for entertainment purposes, or because it makes people like MEAB annoyed, or maybe both.

Happy Thursday!

From the page where I got the statistic about the number of point optimization articles on the internet.

Bilt is back in the Churn-o-Tron 5000 news cycle, this time because they sent a bunch of “oops, my bad, I guess we do actually need customers” emails to existing card holders that had been soft or hard denied for conversion to the new Cardless versions of the card.

That’s positive when taken at face value, but it also illustrates a critical point in churning:

Simplicity beats complexity, unless the complexity is really, really valuable
– MEAB tome of apocryphal wisdom

I’m going to wager that you can’t find a churner who can argue that the new version of Bilt has any heir of simplicity with a straight face. Assuming that’s true, you’d better find a metric ton of value in the new Bilt ecosystem before you decide to join.

If a metric ton of value isn’t obvious though, maybe consider that your time will be better spent by using a Citi Double Cash card, Venture X card, American Express Blue Business Plus card, or Chase Ink Unlimited card and looking for other plays instead of taking hours learning the ins-and-outs of the most complex credit card program ever invented for the possibility of good returns before Cardless axes you. With all of those non-Bilt cards:

  • You’ll earn 2x on all spend (1.5x for the Ink Unlimited)
  • The annual fees are simple
  • The programs all have valuable transfer partners
  • You don’t have to spend hours learning how to use the card
  • Richard Kerr won’t be watching your plays in real time

So naturally the follow-on question is: Well, is there a metric ton of value in the Bilt program?

I think generally the answer is absolutely not for a whale, maybe for a dolphin, and possibly for a shrimp. But, you do you friends, and obviously what you know is different than what I know. Let me leave you with a new word, courtesy of Chris from All the Hacks: Bilted, which (I’m definitely paraphrasing and editorializing his words) means “So much complexity that you want to give up and laugh, but maybe there’s a good deal behind it all.”

Have a nice Tuesday friends!

With the right you complexity you can drive in a river like churning legend Danny too. But should you?

We’ve had enough time in January to learn what works for the annual-fee-endowed American Express Platinum and Business Platinum card $200 calendar year airline incidental credits. So, how do we make those incidental credits worth something? The best quasi-cashout options seem to be:

  • United: Buy TravelBank credit directly. It expires in five years and can be used to pay for United flights. You can usually sell this for 88%+, and with a little trickery you can turn them into flexible credits good for other people and on other airlines  [more info]
  • Delta: Buy airfare and pay partially with a gift card or travel credit, pay for the remainder with your card (don’t go over $200 though). Alternatively if you have a co-branded American Express Delta card and are eligible for Pay with Miles with, pay partially with miles and the remainder will be credited provided it’s less than $250 [more info]
  • Alaska: Buy a seat upgrade after booking and chat your “seat selection fee” doesn’t post, buy a flight paid partially with Alaska wallet funds and partially with your AmEx (less than $100), then refund to your wallet after 24 hours, or change a ticket to a higher fare as long as its less than $200 in additional cost [more info]
  • American: Buy cheap airfare, then change it to a flight that you really want that costs more and pay with your credit card (don’t go over the credit amount though). If you want to gamble, you’ve got roughly even odds that award taxes and fees will count [more info]
  • Southwest: Buy a flight less than $109, or book an international flight with taxes under $109 per ticket, then refund to a travel credit. Combine with the Choice Extra fare bucket to get around name-locking  [more info]
  • JetBlue: There aren’t new 2026 datapoints yet, but likely 2025’s version still works: Buy a flight less than $137 then cancel the flight after 24 hours and refund to your JetBlue wallet. For best results, $74 Blue Basic fares will have approximately $99 Blue fares (thanks to Brian C) [more info]
  • Spirit: Gutsy choice friend! I’ll be surprised if Spirit is still around by April, so make it quick. A Big Front Seat upgrade works, and airfare below approximately $60 also works [more info]

For bonus points, you’ve still got time to cash out your travel credits using last year’s selected airline, get reimbursed, and then change to a new airline online by January 31.

Have a nice Wednesday friends!

Haven’t had enough of 2026 style yet? Here’s 2026 fashion, apparently.