Special thanks to Churnest Hemingway for today’s guest insightful guest post. Watch soon for his upcoming novel, The Old Man and the Fee.

When communicating with groups in person or online, one of the most important questions you can ask yourself is “Who’s in the room?” Knowing your audience and understanding their agenda (tip: it’s different than yours) should shape what you’re saying, and validate why you’re saying it at all.

This advice is also very relevant for communication about churning. Whether discussing a card benefit loophole or a foundational tool for manufactured spending, you should always stop to consider who is in the room before starting a conversation – lest you also start the death clock on the very play you’re hoping to discuss. We have seen this lack of discretion contribute to the demise of many joyful things in recent years, sometimes in conjunction with quantitative signals, sometimes not.

If you’re posting to reddit, commenting on a blog or video, or publishing content yourself, you can be confident that the marketing departments of major credit card issuers are reading what you’re putting out there. Marketers report up to other departments on product usage trends and the voice of their customer. If the voice of their customer is yapping about a loophole its not supposed to have, a feature its not using as intended, or anything else of benefit beyond what is advertised, you can be certain those goodies will be killed by product leadership sooner or later.

Similarly, when chatting or on the phone with your friendly customer service rep, you should be aware that everything you say is being logged and analyzed in dashboards, meetings, and meetings about dashboards. Just as with marketing departments, surges in specific topics or questions stick out on the radar like a sore thumb. Badgering a bank employee about a key account feature that was retired will not magically turn that feature back on. Over a hundred of these calls will raise the question of why this feature is suddenly in demand, and prompt further investigation of customers who still have skin in the game.

Sharing away from the corporate eye does not guarantee privacy, either. Smaller online communities have their own share of participants who repost tips and plays without adequately gut-checking what it means for the survival of what they’re sharing. Some of these are from well-meaning churners excited to share knowledge with their peers and build community. Less forgivably, lurking influencers capitalize on community content by monetizing it for ad-supported blogs and paid courses. This latter demographic is a scourge and the reason you should know the agenda of your peers.

Finally, a common thread between all three audiences is the new variable of AI analysis. Every reddit post, chat or call log, or private community message is now subject to any number of agents ingesting, synthesizing, and summarizing its content ad infinitum. Despite bank technology having a reputation for being old and brittle, it is simple enough to batch export data and analyze it with another application. Many churners also use these tools, undisclosed, in private communities to manage the firehose of information coming at them on a daily basis. Even if you’ve forgotten what you once posted way up in the scrollback, or are past the 90 day window of your visible Slack content, don’t worry – AI remembers, and will always remember. The act of listening has now been delegated to a technology that never sleeps. Proceed with caution.

A footnote: “X has already been shared by popularwebsite, so it doesn’t matter if I share it again” is not a good excuse for indiscretion. Visibility on a play doesn’t come from one leak, but repeated signals indicating its heat and significance. Even if a play has been shared that cannot be unshared, abstaining from a repeat broadcast is good practice for extending its lifespan and diminishing its significance to those who would treat it indelicately – or those who have the power to see it killed.

So, what should we do when we don’t know who to trust? Build trust. Know who’s in the room by getting in the actual room. Get on calls, show up at meetups, and build churning relationships that turn into churning friendships. Gracefully retract and delete overshares when other churners let you know you’ve gone too far, and give a polite nudge when you see someone else spill too much (escalate as necessary). Despite only knowing each other by first names at best, the amount of trust in our hobby is uniquely special, and the only thing that keeps it together.

– Churnist Hemingway

Pictured: AmEx RAT infiltrating a churning mixer.

Introduction

Holding any loyalty currency in your account for anything beyond what you’ll use in the next 18 months or so is generally a recipe for disaster because:

There’s still a great case to be made for holding some points though, specifically for when “life doesn’t care about your booking window” happens, also known as that time you need to travel immediately regardless of how many seats Delta has available in their “Main Basic Extra Minus Enhanced Lite” fare class.

The Emergency Fund

When life hits, you may need to be on a plane or in a hotel room in the next couple of hours, for example:

  • You need to travel immediately to care for someone
  • A war started nearby
  • Your house flooded
  • You ran out of flour from a specific mill in France and don’t have time to ship more

At that point, “getting out” is more important than whether or not you have a lie flat bed or whether you’ll get a free sandwich in main cabin extra. It also means that you won’t have time to earn new points to cover your stay, so what you’ve got banked is exactly what you have to work with. In other words, holding a baseline level of points in a few programs can serve as the points equivalent of your cash emergency fund.

In Practice, MEAB Style

I keep a baseline of around 100,000 points in most US airline programs and hotel programs for emergencies. Why 100,000? Well, humans like round numbers, and because that’s generally enough to ensure I can get anywhere in coach and have a night or two in a hotel while I figure out next steps or earn more points as needed. It’s also a level that I’m comfortable losing without any real heartache if my account is shutdown because reasons.

Fin

Hoarding is bad, except when it’s good, naturally. Just keep those hoard levels in check and call them an emergency fund so you can sleep better at night.

Happy Wednesday!

Next time: Building your strategic reserve. (Also eww, Diet Coke)

Pretend you’re on a deserted island filled with nothing but (1) cheese and (2) a zookeeper that will transport you off the island, but only transport you if you can name at least seven recurring credits on popular credit cards in sixty seconds or less. Why a zookeeper you ask? I’m unsure, he isn’t taking questions. Don’t get distracted.

Anyway, now that your fate is sealed, let’s zero in on the American Express Platinum and Business Platinum $200 airline incidental credit. Yes, you could use it as intended, but generally turning it directly into airfare or a travel wallet credit is more useful. So, you want to shoot for airfare credit, eh? You’ve got three ways to play it:

  • Be the first to try something outside of the intended use
  • Wait until the first couple of data points come in from the people who were first, then act quickly
  • Get around to credits eventually, after all they’ll prolly still work next month, right?

There’s an obvious best way to play this, at least for a mass-market credit on a mass-market credit card: Wait for someone else to try a cash-out and then go as quickly as you can to copy them. If you don’t wait, you might end up as a bag holder on a failed cash-out. If you wait too long, your favorite loophole may have closed and all you’ll have left is in island full of cheese (Ok, ok, that’s not the end of the world either).

Happy Monday friends!

A souvenir from cheese island.

When you’ve hit a groove in churning or in manufactured spend, it’s easy to get stuck in an opportunity cost loop, like:

  • When I hit my favorite deal, I’m earning $<XXX>
  • I can hit that deal every <YYY> time units
  • After <ZZZ> runs, I’ll have earned enough for [COOL THING]

It’s all true on its face, but it often leads to a problem when you go on vacation, to a funeral, or to Lubbock for the world’s worst bachelorette party: It’s really hard to unplug, and that’s not because the math stops working. Rather, it’s because the math keeps working, even when you’re out of the loop.

How do you combat the math that won’t stop? You’ve got a few options:

  • Automate it
  • Delegate it
  • Batch it
  • Live without it

Some combination of all of those things is ok too, just make a conscious choice to do them ahead of time the next time you’re going offline.

Happy Tuesday!

Who wouldn’t want to be present for the food spread at the Lubbock bachelorette party?

Today’s post is a timely guest post by James, the host of the Churn and Burn podcast. This his his third guest post, see his first and second for further reading. Special thanks to James!

The manufactured spend (MS) world is full of “in-group” and “out-group” code phrases that tend to get repeated within the social circles of our second job hobby.  One of my favorites: Social Engineering.  Typically, we use this phrase to reference our unwanted contact with the out-groups.  “I just had to socially engineer my way through this Chase reinstatement call” is something many of us have said to many a P2.  Every manufactured spender has their own unique skill set with strengths and weaknesses.  Social Engineering is perhaps one of the most underrated ones, and I excel at it. My personal background is heavily grounded in acting and public speaking.  I’m not a numbers guy.  In another life, I could have eschewed my churning career for one as a stage actor.  It’s part of the reason why I have a podcast that caters only to the worst of the degens, instead of a blog with a cult following.

However, something that’s rarely spoken about is the role of social engineering and its role within the in-group.  No one likes to talk about it, at least not openly… but it’s a huge component in this space, so much so that MEAB himself started an entire blog just to open himself up to it.

I know exactly four different “Matts” in the world of MS.  Recently, one of them shared a theory with me that redefined the way I view everything we do:

Everyone feels like they are trying to level up in MS, but there are actually no levels. It’s a circle. Wherever you enter the circle feels like the bottom.  Someone on the left side of the circle interacts with the right side of the circle. They both have a new piece of info, their first goal with that info is to use it to level up. Whoever they believe is at a higher level than them now gets that info for “free” because they try and leverage that info.

We could go back and forth for hours about whether it’s appropriate to “trade” plays or how people should go about determining who they deem worthy to share sensitive info with.  I’ve seen countless MS empires rise and fall based purely on what info was or was not shared and who did or did not share it.  I’ve been rewarded tremendously just because I shared the right thing with the right person, and have been quite literally excommunicated from certain plays because I refused to share sensitive info with others.  But I do think we can all agree on one thing about Matt’s theory: knowing where you are in that circle (and where others are circling) is absolutely critical.  

We all want to believe that [insert name here] Points and Miles influencer with 100,000 followers is secretly hiding several high level plays that would shake us to our very core if we knew what they were truly doing behind the scenes.  We all want to think that the people who speak at the yearly meetups are all in some back room in between seminars talking about how they’re doing 6 figures of MS per day using some crazy loophole that they’re only sharing with the other whales because they’re part of the in-group, while the other 300 minnows who paid for their tickets are outside watching James Churn and Burn explain (poorly) how to maximize their Hilton Free Night certs.  Here’s the rub, though: I can confirm, fairly conclusively, that with a few notable exceptions, the aforementioned picture I drew above detailing some kind of insider points blogger mafia is mostly a fiction.  These are not the droids you are looking for, and the real closeted whales are probably sitting in the back of those seminars, chilling on their laptop, doing more MS in an hour than the person on stage will do all month.  

So I want everyone to stop and think right now.  In all seriousness, ask yourself this question:  For every play you’ve discovered with some amount of outside help: did you ask for it, or did it just spontaneously fall into your lap through some variance of “right place, right time” happenstance?  More importantly: Can you even remember how you found the play in the first place?

One thing’s for sure.  If you heard about it from a publicly hosted Youtube video on a wildly popular influencer’s channel, chances are quite good that you’re somewhere at the bottom of the circle.  

– James

It could be worse than the bottom of the circle.

Introduction

The continuous need to feed the content monster occasionally means every related blog out there writes about the same thing. This week’s President’s Day version hit with the news that United TravelBank hasn’t been reimbursed for American Express airline incidental credits since about 10 days ago.

Analysis

Mr. T and I share a lot of common beliefs about churning, and this event was no exception. I interviewed him for more insight (special thanks for taking the time out of his busy schedule to chat):

[MEAB]: Is it actually broken?
[Mr. T]: It might be, fool! Or it might not be. Nobody knows yet.

[MEAB]: Has this happened before?
[Mr. T]: Yes, I seen this movie before! :Late 2020, in early 2024, and in late 2024. This ain’t our first rodeo.

[MEAB]: How many times has it been declared dead?
[Mr. T]: In the last day? Or you talking lifetime? Either way, a whole lot.

[MEAB]: If it is dead, is that the end?
[Mr. T]: There are other options even for Newark and San Francisco chumps. I pity the fool who doesn’t think so!

[MEAB]: Should I use other options ASAP?
[Mr. T]: Unless you gotta close that card down in a couple of weeks, how about just sit tight and see how it shakes out?

[MEAB]: Should I write my own 2,000 word post declaring it dead?
[Mr. T]: Only if you stretch first, that’s a lot of reaching!

Have a nice Tuesday, and “never dig a grave before the deal’s even cold”.

Next up: Turning American Express Airline Incidental credits into cereal.

Introduction

Let’s chat about the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But, before we get in too deep though, I’ll remind anyone who doesn’t remember immediately what exactly that effect is (a reminder for basically all of the other readers but you):

Dunning-Kruger Effect: When your confidence in a subject books an Emirates First flight to the moon, but your competence in that subject gets you a one way ticket to Lubbock, TX on Southwest.

Remedial Psychology by non-Psychologist MEAB, Volume II

Practice

Manufactured spenders and churners are an astute, quick-thinking bunch, at least on average. They’re also happy to give advice and help others out of a tricky situation. Put those traits together though, and your average personality in the hobby has a tendency to speak with more bravado than is strictly warranted. That is, a lot of us are walking Dunning-Kruger Effect bots. Need a concrete example? You’re reading an article from a guy who’s formal psychological training consists of an expired library card. A few more examples:

  • <Bank> shutdowns are permanent”
  • “That trick hasn’t worked since 2017”
  • “I’ve done <churning thing> seven times this month, it’s completely safe!”

There are of course longer examples too, but you’ll have to find those on another blog that has at least four pop-up ads and two referral links for the Chase Sapphire Preferred™©®Ωµ® card.

Fin

Let’s end with a conversation I overheard:

Everyone else: “Ok poindexter, so what?”
MEAB: “Listen to everyone in the hobby, we’re a smart bunch. But, apply appropriate skepticism.”
Everyone else: “Boring! Where are the free flights and stuff?”
MEAB: “…”

Have a nice weekend friends!

The guy who already did the thing seven times this month’s home plumbing

Even though I play one on TV*, I’m definitely not a psychologist. I have, however, observed a few things about manufactured spenders:

  • They have a tendency toward being rather extra
  • Their intelligence is generally higher than average
  • Their social-skills tend to be focused on the short term, except for the next item
  • Their memory about being wronged lasts a long time

Taken together, there are a conclusions we can draw that seem to be accurate based on lots of observation in the space:

  • Friendly relationships need active work, or they fade somewhat quickly
  • The memory of when someone feels wronged lasts forever

Like a good credit union, working to maintain a relationship boosts profitability and longevity. Also like a good credit union, nuking the thing isn’t going to help you at all. Instead, you end up blacklisted by your target, their inner circles, and probably by plenty of casual observers too. Is there a time and place for that sort of thing? I’m not sure, but if you’re going to do it be deliberate about the time and the place, like the Bikini Atoll I guess.

Have a nice weekend friends!

*This is a lie. I don’t play one on TV. Once I pretended to though. No, that’s a lie too.

Churners are good at jokes though.