Category: Airlines

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics has now released on-time data for all months in 2023, which means I get to play data geek, specifically with an eye toward positioning flights and how much time to build in to connections to have a great chance of everything working out, at least as long as this year is like data from 2023.

Marketing Carrier Arrival Stats

First, let’s look look at the 90th and 95th percentile for arrival delays by marketing carrier (or, in other words, how many minutes past scheduled arrival captures 90% or 95% of all carrier arrivals)? Note that this includes regional jets operated by partner airlines like SkyWest, Endeavor, and United Express.

Marketing Carrier90th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)		95th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)
American Airlines5183
Alaska Airlines3153
JetBlue83138
Delta3163
Frontier73120
Hawaiian3454
Spirit66113
United4385
Southwest3662
2023 Arrival statistics by marketing carrier.

I’m most surprised by JetBlue here, given that to have a 95% chance of arriving in time for your connection, you need to pad your connection time by nearly 2 hours and 20 minutes. On the other hand, I wrote this on a JetBlue flight that was delayed by about 3 ½ hours, so I guess confirmed? Well played JetBlue.

Operating Carrier Arrival Stats

Now, let’s look at the same thing for major airlines flying mainline aircraft, excluding any regional jets, since often we’re able to avoid regional jets for positioning flights or connections and historically they don’t perform as well:

Marketing Carrier90th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)		95th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)
AA5197
Alaska3155
JetBlue83138
Delta3166
Frontier73120
Hawaiian3454
Spirit66113
United4385
Southwest3662
2023 Arrival statistics by operating carrier, major airlines.

Note that AA’s operation has worse (!) performance when its regional partner airlines are excluded from the statistics and we only consider mainline flights. I had to go triple check this data because wow, that sucks AA.

What about data for the regionals only, when they’re operating on behalf of one of the majors?

Marketing Carrier90th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)		95th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)
Endeavor2763
CommuteAir3682
GoJet4080
Envoy3262
PSA3270
SkyWest3270
Piedmont2562
Horizon2245
Mesa68129
Republic2353
Air Wisconsin61114
2023 Arrival statistics by operating carrier, regional airlines operating for another carrier.

My mental model for regional jet carriers is usually: avoid GoJet and Mesa, SkyWest is most likely to get you there. The data proves that’s only somewhat correct for 2023 though.

Major Hub Arrival Statistics

Ok, but what about a given hub? We all know that some function better than others, so let’s look at arrival delays at the top 15 airports by total number of commercial flights, plus one bonus airport.

Airport90th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)		95th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)
ATL3371
DEN4486
ORD4186
DFW4694
CLT3883
LAX3974
LAS5085
SEA2753
PHX3770
LGA4385
MCO63109
IAH4492
EWR4893
DCA3673
BOS56102
SFO4784
JFK56107
LBB4481
2023 Arrival statistics by airport, ordered by total number of air carrier flights in 2023.

So I guess avoid positioning flights to Orlando, Boston, or JFK if you can help it.

Also for fun, these are the worst airports for delays:

Airport90th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)		95th Percentile Arrival Delay
(minutes)
PVU87160
PSE93152
BQN86137
SFB73130
TTN83129
2023 Arrival statistics by airport, ordered by biggest 95th percentile arrival delays.

So, don’t expect to fly to Provo, UT in any timely fashion. Maybe the late arrivals explain why Provo, part of what’s affectionally called “Happy Valley”, is the number one spot in the nation for anti-depressant prescriptions per capita.

By Season

We can dissect this data in a million different ways, but we know winter storms make things worse and summer thunderstorms don’t help either. So let’s look at when you’re most likely to be delayed, by month.

So, build extra time in for positioning flights in June and July.

What about breaking this down by day of the week?

The takeaway here is probably that the day of week doesn’t matter much, unless it’s Tuesday.

Conclusion

If you’re interested in seeing the raw CSV data (which ended up in an SQL database), let me know, I’m happy to share. Otherwise, good luck on those award flights!

MEAB today, prolly.

First, a warning about Google Wallet, renamed to Android Pay, renamed to Google Pay, which split into Google Wallet and Google Pay, and then was all renamed to Google Wallet once again (I wish I was kidding about all of this, but I’m not):

Since around December, Google Wallet purchases aren’t earning 3x points on the US Bank Altitude Reserve card. They’ll probably fix it retroactively at some point, but for now stick to Apple Pay or Samsung Pay, both of which have been much less schizophrenic about their names and still earn 3x.

  1. Southwest has a promotional companion pass offer valid through August 5 and October 2 provided you register and book two one-ways or one round-trip flight by tomorrow night, and then fly those flights by May 22. The qualifying flights need to be paid flights, and they have to be booked after registration.

    The bad news is that you’ll be flying Southwest, but the good news is it might be half priced Southwest this fall.
  2. Do this now: Register for double elite rental credits on weekend rentals with National for rentals between April 4 and June 9. If you maximize this promotion, they’ll also throw in a few empty bottles of no-name soda underneath the passenger seat of the rental car. (Thanks to FM)
  3. Do this now: Register for Wyndham’s 10 bonus elite qualifying nights with a single stay in the next 90 days. This is a targeted promotion in theory, but in practice likely works for everyone.
  4. American Express offers has an offer for $180 of of $1,200 or more in airfare booked by June 23. If you’re playing games on this one, know that you’ll probably have to call British Airways to cancel and refund.

Happy Tuesday!

Extreme couponers can parlay National’s free empty soda bottles into chiz stick.

  1. Preferred Hotels brand properties are now bookable via Choice Points at a special link. There are some great redemptions here, and a dare say that some of them are competitive with Hyatt or Hilton redemptions, especially given that Citi ThankYou Points are transferrable to Choice at a 2:1 ratio for Premier card holders.
  2. American Express has new employee card offers for 5,000 Membership Rewards after $2,000 spend for up to five employees:

    – Business Gold
    – Business Green

    The POID is K4IY:9897. Note that Blue Business Plus cards may also be eligible, but that’s unconfirmed. If you try, I’d suggest chatting with AmEx after three business days to see if a spend offer is attached before spending. (Thanks to MicroChurn)
  3. Do this now: Register for double Hyatt elite qualifying nights at Dream hotels for stays through June 10.
  4. Norwegian carrier Play has 25% off of fares to Berlin, Dublin, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Paris, London, and Norway booked by tomorrow night for travel between April 2024 and February 2025, excluding July and December.

    Play is a low cost airline, so you’re going to have to fly economy and suck it up, buttercup to take advantage of this one.

Play Airlines headquarters’ official welcome sign.

  1. Southwest has extended its schedule through January 8, 2025, which includes Thanksgiving and Holiday travel dates. Now isn’t guaranteed to be the cheapest time to book holiday tickets, but it’s certainly not the most expensive time either and if prices do drop you can collect the differences as mileage refunds or travel credits. (Thanks to Brian M)
  2. Staples has fee free $200 Mastercard gift cards starting Sunday and running through the following Saturday, limit five per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards, so have a liquidation plan in place. Current Pathward liquidation limits at major retailers are $480 every six minutes. There are still in-person and online liquidation plays, always be probing.
  3. United now allows pooled mileage accounts for up to five people total, but there are some serious caveats:

    – Pooled redemptions are only for United and United Express flights
    – Members have a 90 day block from leaving a pool and rejoining another

    That first point bears repeating: You’ll be flying United, or even worse, United Express.
  4. Southwest is running a fare sale for travel from April 9 through June 5 for continental US fares, and slightly different dates for fares to Puerto Rico.

    At least you won’t be flying United Express.
  5. Weis Markets have 4x points on $100 or more in third party gift card purchases through the end of March. (Thanks to GCG)

Have a nice weekend friends!

Pictured: Flying the friendly skies with United Express.

Let me start today with a bit of advice: It’s easy to register for 5x promotions, and it’s also easy to hit all your spend in a single day. It’s also easy to assume that you’ll do it and then never get to it. So, consider setting aside a single day in early April to hit all your quarterly 5x spend so that you can focus on bigger, better deals.

  1. Do this now: Register for Chase Freedom and Freedom Flex Q2 5x categories. This time: Restaurants, Whole Foods (which sells many types of gift cards), and hotels.
  2. Do this now: Register for Discover IT Q2 5x categories. This time: Gas stations and home improvement stores, both of which sell many types of gift cards; also public transit.
  3. Do this now: Register for Citi Dividend Q2 5x categories: This time: Grocery stores and drug stores, both of which typically sell many types of gift cards.
  4. Do this now: Choose your US Bank Cash+ Q2 5x categories. I always choose utilities and electronics stores, the latter of which typically sells many types of gift cards.
  5. Giant, Martins, Stop and Shop, and Giant Food stores have 2x points on Vanilla Visa gift cards through Wednesday, limit $2,000 in spend per account, no registration required.
  6. Virgin Atlantic has a promotion for 50% off the mileage cost of award tickets booked by Wednesday for travel through June 30 for travel on Virgin Atlantic metal. This doesn’t reduce the often substantial surcharges that go along with the tickets. (Thanks to DoC)
  7. American Express offers has two new interesting card-linked offers:

    – $50 off of $250 or more in spend at several IHG brands through June 15
    – $150 off of $750 or more in spend at the Four Seasons through July 11 (if they do string matching, Four Seasons Total Landscaping may also work)

    Gamers gonna game. (Thanks to DDG)

Have a nice weekend friends!

Not this kind of nose dive. (too soon?)

Foreword: There were a few high profile AmEx shutdowns yesterday, but it’s too early to know much about what happened other than most of them probably involved a big volume of online MS. Stay tuned for future updates when we know more, and don’t forget the Sneak Attack Strike Back if you’re concerned you might be next. If you haven’t heard about these before now, you probably don’t need to be concerned. I’ll do a writeup with lessons if and when we learn more.

Airlines have become overly concerned with what day it is this week, as we’ll soon see:

  1. Clear.me has a new promotion for a $75 Uber voucher with a new clear account with promo code SAVETIME75. These are great for cashing out American Express Clear credits as Uber vouchers, but you’ve got to be creative on the redemption side because there’s a limit of one $75 Uber voucher per account. (Thanks to jnjustice)
  2. Southwest has a “Business Spring Loyalty Bonus” Rapid Rewards points after registering for the offer, booking a flight through a business channel, and flying before May 10. The bonus is tiered:

    – two one-ways: 5,000 total bonus points
    – six one-ways: 15,000 total bonus points
    – eight one-ways: 30,000 total bonus points

    I believe based on on the terms and conditions an American Express Travel phone booking would qualify, but I can’t be certain. Alternatively you can book through an SWABIZ account. (Thanks to sctrader)
  3. JetBlue has $25 off of a one way flight, or $50 off of round trip flights booked by tonight for travel between March 19 and June 12 with promo code SPRINGTRAVEL.

    Because it’s JetBlue and because JetBlue hates giving meaningful discounts, these only work for travel on Monday through Thursday and don’t work for international flights or Mint cabins.
  4. American has an economy award sale for flights that depart on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Saturday in April or May. There are some good deals here, including 5,000 miles for short-haul and medium-haul international flights.
  5. Southwest has a fare sale for travel between March 26 and May 22 and booked by March 14, but only for flights on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

    My existing bookings had no discounts, because like I diva I don’t have travel booked on Tuesdays or Wednesdays.
  6. The Gift Card Shop has fee-free $500 Visa gift cards through Friday night using promo code NEWLOOK. The code worked for both physical and egift cards in my experiments. Note that:

    – Purchase limits at InComm sites like this one are typically $10,000
    – InComm has been silently throttling the number of cards that can be used at the same merchant within a given time since Christmas.

    The throttle started out with certain BINs on certain products, then moved to other BINs on other products, and they’ve now hit a major, high volume product with the same limit. If one of your plays involves high volume InComm cards, maybe run a few tests before your next big order.

    For everyone else, assume that most InComm products now have a three card limit per liquidation trip.

Have a nice Wednesday!

New elite status award for Southwest A-List members.

  1. American Express has new, heightened bonuses available via the Random Number Generator™ (which can be played by trying different browsers, going incognito, using a mobile device, hitting the landing page through a search engine, or by tossing cheese up into the air between each keystroke). The offers:

    – Blue Business Plus bonus of 50,000 Membership Rewards after $8,000 spend in three months.
    – Blue Business Cash bonus of $500 after $8,000 spend in three months

    There are variations of these offers available via referral with slightly higher spend requirements of $10,000 in three months too, and are those are much better for the referrer. (Thanks to robdajewels)
  2. American Express Membership Rewards has a targeted 20% transfer bonus to Etihad Guest miles through April 4. I wasn’t targeted, but this program is a sleeper program and one of the only ones I’d transfer a few miles into speculatively.
  3. Two airline shopping portal have new spend bonuses:

    – Southwest: 1,000 Rapid Rewards after $300 or more in spend through March 18
    – AA: 500 AAdvantage miles after $150 or more in spend through March 11

    In other non-news, giftcards.com remains available on major shopping portals.
  4. Turkish Miles and Smiles has a 20% rebate on award tickets booked on Turkish metal booked by August 31 for tickets booked by the mileage account holder. Tickets booked before yesterday won’t qualify though.

    The rebated miles expire at the end of 2025, regardless of the other mileage expiration dates or activity.

An child suffers the unfortunate side effect of the American Express Random Number Generator™ game.

Today’s post is brought to you by baby sized offers:

  1. Do this now: Check your US Bank Products and Offers page for each credit card on the website or in the mobile app for a targeted offer for double cash back on card linked offers between March 27 and 30, activation required.
  2. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards Mastercard, an original Unsung Hero, has new targeted spending offers for March. Reported offers:

    – $50 statement credit after six $60+ purchases once per month for March, April, and May
    – $75 statement credit after five $75+ purchases once per month for March, April, and May
    – 5% back in Shop Your Way Points when redeemed for Visa gift cards

    The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card also has interesting payment options that aren’t necessarily available on other Citi cards too. (Thanks to birt, Ben, and JEB)
  3. Citi sent targeted offers via email to Double Cash and Premier card holders for 4x on up to $625 in spend, activation required.

    As a general reminder: Citi does retention offers by phone, and they stack with these offers too. (Thanks to Santosh)
  4. Dan’s Deals put together a nice United Airlines award chart with updated pricing for March 2024.

Have a nice Monday!

The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards baby offers hits above its weight class.