1. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s promotion for a free night voucher after two nights stayed in the US, Canada, or the Carribean before May 5. The free night voucher is valid through August 25.

    If you haven’t stayed in a Best Western in a a while, you’re really not missing anything, but there’s still a good arbitrage opportunity here. A quick search of Best Westerns in Lubbock shows plenty of $45-$55 nights, and after two of those you’ll earn a certificate that could be used at $500+ a night Best Western Properties in a place where people actually want to visit. Pro-tip: you don’t actually have to sleep in the $45 / night hotel.
  2. Two airline portal shave a promotion for bonus miles after cumulative spend through February 12:

    – AA eShopping has 500 bonus miles after $200 or more in cumulative spend
    – United MileagePlus shopping has 500 bonus miles after $150 or more in cumulative spend

    In totally random news giftcards.com is back on AA eShopping and on MileagePlus Shopping, albeit at 1x as of this writing.
  3. There’s a new, relatively low bonus no-lifetime language (NLL) American Express Business Gold link with 70,000 Membership Rewards after $10,000 in spend.

    Normally this would still be worthwhile thanks to call-in offers for adding up to 99 employees, but those aren’t available on the Business Gold card while they’re updating systems with the increased annual fee. (Thanks to DoC)
  4. The Target RedCard debit card has a $50 sign-up bonus through May 4, which is enough time to churn this at least once. (Lately you’ve got to wait about eight weeks in-between closing and reopening one of these for auto-approval.)

    The double redemption, once online and once in-store, is now dead, but there continues to be no credit impact for churning the debit card.

In other random news, attorneys are still attorneys.

  1. Several new American Express Platinum no-lifetime language (NLL) offers have surfaced, including one for 150,000 Membership Rewards after $6,000 spend in three months.

    Login before checking the above link. If you get an offer not available link, look for another offer on your AmEx dashboard. (Thanks to Creative_Accounting)
  2. FM notes that the American Express Delta cards have better than public landing page offers for at least two cards during a paid dummy booking:

    – Personal Gold: 50,000 SkyMiles and $400 statement credit after $3,000 spend and a single Delta purchase in six months
    – Personal Platinum: 70,000 SkyMiles and $400 statement credit after $4,000 spend and a single Delta purchase in six months

    The regular offer is 70,000 SkyMiles and 90,000 SkyMiles respectively, so you’re effectively selling 20,000 points for 2 cents per point with these offers. I was able to pull up both variants by switching browsers.
  3. FlyingBlue has released its February promo rewards for widespread discounted economy award tickets and limited discounted business class award tickets for several routes to and from Europe:

    – Los Angeles – Paris
    – San Francisco – Paris
    – Austin – Amsterdam

    Effectively, this is AirFrance and KLM’s way of saying “west coast, best coast”, which we all know to be true anyway. Oh, and also Austin I guess.

Happy Monday friends!

The official FlyingBlue February 2024 team shirt.

EDITORS NOTE: In 2024, I’m going to try and have a guest post on Saturdays. Today’s guest post is from prolific miles and points burner and host of the Churn and Burn podcast, James. He’s probably tied in fourth place for the most number of shared Telegram and WhatsApp groups with me too, so you know he’s legit.

Cents per point.  It’s a fallacy that we’ve all fallen victim to.  To feel so desperately that you’re right, only to realize you’ve been led astray.  

All of us have been there: “Well, this is a $1000 restaurant purchase, so obviously, I want to put it on my Amex Gold card for 4x, right?  On paper, it makes sense.  TPG values Membership Rewards at 2 cents per point.  That’s 8% back on every restaurant purchase, right?

If you’re rolling your eyes, you should be.  Even when cashed out via Charles Schwab, it’s a $44 money maker.  Contrast that with throwing the same $1000 spend on a Chase Sapphire Reserve: it’s 3000 points earned, which when transferred to Hyatt, is arguably worth the same in value for many people.

Some of you are probably saying “Wait!  When redeemed via Aeroplan, my Membership Rewards are worth 7 cents per point if I book Lufthansa First Class!”  

There’s two problems with this line of thinking.  1. My guess is that no one currently reading this is going to pay $15,000 for a one way ticket on a seven hour Lufthansa flight.  If you are, I’d seriously consider scheduling a cat scan next week.  And 2. Not everyone wants to fly Lufthansa First Class.  Most of you are already familiar with #1 already, because TRUE cents per point is not based on the actual cash value of the ticket/hotel, but the cash value that you were willing to pay in the first place.  

Think of it this way.  There’s a Hyatt Regency in Jersey City that currently goes for an average of 15,000 Hyatt points per night or $250.  Alternatively, for 40,000 points or $931, you can book the luxurious Park Hyatt New York City.  Some of you are already doing the table math in your heads.  The Regency gives a cool 1.6 CPP valuation.  Meanwhile, the Park Hyatt is a whopping 2.3 CPP.  Easy decision, right?  Of course, not.  Because many people in the game (myself included) would never pay $931 for a night at the Park Hyatt.  Alternatively, I probably would spend $250 a night for the Regency, especially if I was getting free breakfast and Hyatt Globalist benefits on top of that.  In reality, I might be comfortable paying $450 for the Park Hyatt, which amounts to a measly 1.12 CPP value.  Yikers!

We can use the same logic on an Air France fare.  I just booked my father in law on a flight from RDU to CDG for 12,000 Virgin miles + $155 in taxes.  The actual cash price of the fare was $1668.  So, subtracting the taxes from the ticket, the CPP is 12.6 cents per point.  Some might even say that I saved my father in law over $1500.  But I didn’t, because there is no world where he would have paid $1500 for that flight.  “As cheap as humanly possible” were the words he said to me.  Myself?  I’d have ponied up an extra 36,500 points + $127 and splurged for business class.  Of course, I offered up this option to him, and he scoffed at it.  What I saw as a no brainer, he saw as unthinkable.  

The point is: all the blogs and trip reports have us using inflated fat cat valuations for our treasure troves of points. In reality, it’s the price you would pay for the experience you want that matters. Don’t fall victim to the same logic that leads people to list their Pokemon memorabilia on Ebay for the price of their mortgage because they saw an episode of Pawn Stars once where the “expert” told Chumlee that a 1st edition Charizard card was worth $300,000 at auction.

– James

Yes, you earned 4,124 Membership Rewards, but would you really have tipped $1,000 if you didn’t? Don’t answer.

We’re going to go short form, followed by long form, followed by short form today because that’s how the wind is blowing. Let’s just call it the churning burger.

  1. Staples has fee free $200 Visa gift cards starting Sunday and running through the following Saturday, limit eight per transaction.

    These are Pathward gift cards so have a liquidation plan in place.
  2. American Express’s COO said they’d be refreshing 40 global cards in the next year late last week, and we’ve just seen the first set of updates, all on Delta cards. The changes:

    Personal Gold (annual fee: $150, up from $99)
    – $200 flight credit after $10,000 spend
    – $100 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays

    Personal Platinum (annual fee: $350, up from $250)
    – $10 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $150 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for first class and for international trips

    Personal Reserve (annual fee: $650, up from $550)
    – $20 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for international trips

    Business Gold (annual fee: $150, up from $99)
    – $200 flight credit after $10,000 spend
    – $150 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays

    Business Platinum (annual fee: $350, up from $250)
    – $10 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for first class and for international trips

    Business Reserve (annual fee: $650, up from $550)
    – $20 monthly Resy credit
    – $10 monthly rideshare credit
    – $200 Delta Vacations credit for hotel stays
    – Companion certificate now valid for international trips

    The annual fee increase starts on May 1. There’s a path to Delta status just by holding a set of these cards too, the Platinums and Reserves each have a $2,500 MQD “head-start”, and according to the terms and conditions each card type is eligible (up to $10,000 MQD per card holder per year), which means you’ve got a path to Gold status just by holding the right set of credit cards.

    For those keeping track at home, this leaves 36 refreshes left on the AmEx refresh-o-meter, and I think the Resy credits and annual fee increases are a telling sign of what’s to come.
  3. The Citi Shop Your Way Rewards card, the original MEAB’s Unsung Hero credit card, has a targeted spending bonus for February, March, and April for 15% back on up to $1,200 spend at home improvement stores, once per month. This one arrives either by USPS, email, or both. (Thanks to FlashStash)

Have a nice weekend!

The limited edition churning hamburger gift card; yes, it works on PayPal Bill Pay.

  1. Kroger stores are running a 4x fuel points promotion on third party gift cards and fixed value Visa and Mastercard gift cards through Tuesday, February 13.

    The resale market for both fuel points and gift cards is traditionally soft in the first couple of months in a new year, and we’ve settled into that funk in 2024 too. I do expect the funk to evaporate in the next month or so, but right now the game will probably involve longer inventory hold times.
  2. Bilt figured out how to effectively get credit card sites to write a feature post about the Bilt card and program at least monthly with their cringe-worthy “rent day” promotions. I do my best to abstain from the chicanery, but sometimes there’s still something genuinely valuable like today’s tiered Aeroplan transfer bonus:

    – Blue: 75% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 1,750 miles)
    – Silver: 100% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,000 miles)
    – Gold: 125% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,250 miles)
    – Platinum: 150% transfer bonus (1,000 points to 2,500 miles)

    Aeroplan is one of the best transfer programs for Star Alliance awards because it they’ve got good technology and low-friction booking, though they still have cancelation fees on their lowest awards and their prices are occasionally more expensive than other Star Alliance programs. I’ll be transferring most of my Bilt points to Aeroplan, but don’t do something just because I’m doing it.
  3. The Barclays Hawaiian Airlines Business card has a heightened sign-up bonus, and the $99 annual fee is not waived for the first year:

    – 60,000 miles after $2,000 spend in 90 days
    – 10,000 miles for adding an employee card and making a purchase in 90 days

    This card has plenty of other features, but frankly probably none of them are worth using or holding past year one. (Thanks to C-MontgomeryChurns)
  4. Today may be the last day for adding employee cards with spending bonuses online to several American Express cards; they were set expire on February 2 according to the terms and conditions but one of them has already died:

    – Business Platinum: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five
    – Business Gold: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five
    – Blue Business Plus: Spend $4,000 get 15,000 Membership Rewards, limit five

    Hopefully new offers replace these, but you know what they say about hopes. Also, could you tell me what they say about hopes? Because I don’t actually know. Anyway, if you have spend capacity to meet these bonuses I’d order the cards right now.

If the gift card and resale market in January and February were a food, it’d be week old ketchup on ramen.

  1. Today is the last day that the American Express Business Gold card has a $295 annual fee. If you’ve been slacking on a product change or a new application and that slacking extends past tonight, it’ll cost you an extra $80. A few notes:

    – If you’re going to apply head on, don’t forget that you can probably get a much better offer by trying several browsers and connecting to a Dallas VPN
    – If you can’t find a better offer through a VPN, at least use a referral link
    – If you triple dipped Business Platinum cards in December 2022, a downgrade might be a better option than closing the card given the current lack of no-lifetime language (NLL) links
    – American Express’s calendar day ends before midnight Eastern, but after midnight UTC, because reasons

    The Business Gold card also has an unadvertised spending bonus (of sort) via phone in employee offers or via online employee offers, and now has $240 in annual office supply credits.
  2. Southwest has 50% off of flights to and from Denver or Colorado Springs booked by tomorrow night with promo code SAVENOW for travel between February 20 and May 22.

    As is typical with targeted promo codes and Southwest, there are a bunch of excluded days and routes, most of which correspond to the days that normies working with school schedules want to travel.
  3. Do this now: Register for Best Western’s Q1 promo for 5,000 bonus points per stay for up to 10 stays through May 5.

    Look, I’m not planning on staying in a Best Western either, but sometimes it’s the best option and in case that happens the promo will already be attached to your account.

Have a nice Wednesday!

You shouldn’t could combine the second and third items at the Best Western Movie Manor (pictured).

  1. Do this now: Register for Hyatt’s promotion for 1,000 bonus Etihad Guest miles with every stay starting Thursday and running through March 31. This doesn’t affect other Hyatt partner earning.

    Personally I’m always able to find a use for Etihad miles, but I’ll grant that I can also be extra, so ymmv.
  2. Do this now: Register for Marriott’s Q1 promotion for 1,000 bonus points and double elite nights for every paid night between February 13 and April 29.
  3. PSA for Delta Platinum and Diamond elites: You’ve only got until tomorrow night to select your 2023 Elite Choice benefits before they vanish forever, much like the lasting value in the Delta Co-Branded credit card partnership.
  4. Alaska has 30% off of economy fares booked by tomorrow night for travel between February 8 and March 13 with promo code THANKYOU30, but only on certain days depending on the origin and destination. This sale seems to be one of the ways Alaska is saying “thanks for putting up with doors flying off of our aircraft”; we’ll do a lot for 30% right?

    They’re also awarding 2x elite qualifying miles (EQMs) for Alaska ticketed flights on Alaska metal through February, and targeting some with 3x too.
  5. There are a few new card linked offers for airfare:

    – Chase Offers: 5%, 10%, or 15% back on up to $450 in airfare with Alaska through February 15
    – BankAmeriDeals: 10% back on up to $450 in airfare with Alaska through February 15
    – American Express Offers: $50 off of $200 or more in airfare with Delta through April 30

    Both of these can be turned into travel credits by booking non-basic economy fares and canceling directly with the airline after 24 hours, or you can play even bigger games if you prefer.
  6. One of the bookmarks in the unpublished Hitchhikers Guide to Churning includes chase.com/mybonus, which is useful for checking for quarterly spending offers on all of your Chase cards. A new type of general purpose link surfaced over the weekend too:

    chase.com/chasegreatrewards/catchall.html

    This link shows upgrade offers for converting a Chase card to a more premium Chase card in the same family, similar to how an ordinary beer might be upgraded to a Pan Galactic Bonvoy Blaster, but with effects on your financial health rather than on your sobriety. (Thanks to reddit_user_2016)

Happy Tuesday friends!

A degenerate redditor reads the scoffs at the unpublished Hitchikers Guide to Churning manuscript.

Introduction

An important aspect of offsetting an annual fee on premium American Express cards is creative use of credits like:

  • $400 annual Dell Credits (Business Platinum)
  • $200 annual airline incidental credits (all Platinums)
  • $10/$15/$35 monthly Uber credits (personal Golds and Platinums)

The calculus for me on the on an annual fee’s effective credit offset involves a discount factor representing what the credit is actually worth based on whether I can resell something, whether I’d actually spend that money either way, and how much work I have to put in to liquidate the credit. It also involves the credit face value, and considerations like a double or triple dip.

Let’s walk through a concrete example with the Business Platinum card, assuming we opened it in late November or early December. For a single year’s annual fee, the main credits are:

  • -$695 annual fee (no discount) = -$695
  • +$800 Dell credits (25% discount) = +$600
  • +$600 Airline incidental credit (20% discount) = +$480
  • Net: -$695+$600+$480 = $385

Ignoring things like Adobe, Indeed, and Clear credits, which are harder to game, the card’s fees are net positive.

News

Two news items came up over the last week that conspire to change this calculus:

  1. Dell, Adobe, and Indeed credits now show an end date of 12/31/2024
  2. AmEx announced a refresh of 40 products globally next year in Friday’s earnings call

Combining the two and reading the between the lines, I think it’s safe to say that the likelihood of Dell, Adobe, and Indeed going away in 2025 is at least 2/3. Updating the above math for a triple dip in December 2024 to subtract 2/3 of the Dell credits in 2025 and beyond (given that it’s likely going away) gives a net annual fee of -$695 + $200 + $400 * (1/3) + $480 = +$118. So, the value from those credits with today’s lens has fallen, though remains positive.

Predictions

Yogi Berra famously said “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” He’s right, and I think my crystal ball is at least as opaque as average so, yeah. Nonetheless, I’m going to predict with broad strokes based on the previous news items:

  • Credits that don’t have an analog on other premium credit cards from Chase, Capital One, Bank of America, Citi, or US Bank are going to get the axe for 2025
  • Credits that are almost certainly paid for by a retailer that don’t lead to additional purchases will be refreshed away, like Saks, for 2025
  • Credits that bring new incremental revenue to a retailer will stick around, like Uber and Equinox
  • We’re going to see more monthly or quarterly credits, and fewer annual or semi-annual credits

Will the cards still be worth it? It depends on what kind of AmEx user you are: If the annual credits represent a significant source of value for premium cards, you’re in a tougher spot. If they don’t because you’re taking advantage of category bonuses, employee cards, offers, and other games, then it’s annoying but not a game changer.

Good luck!

2025’s refreshed American Express Green card monthly coupon credit.