{"id":9075,"date":"2024-01-29T04:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/?p=9075"},"modified":"2024-01-29T07:30:53","modified_gmt":"2024-01-29T14:30:53","slug":"its-time-to-re-think-the-value-of-american-express-credits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/29\/its-time-to-re-think-the-value-of-american-express-credits\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Time to Re-think the Value of American Express Credits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>An important aspect of offsetting an annual fee on premium American Express cards is creative use of credits like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>$400 annual Dell Credits (Business Platinum)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$200 annual airline incidental credits (all Platinums)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$10\/$15\/$35 monthly Uber credits (personal Golds and Platinums)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The calculus for me on the on an annual fee&#8217;s effective credit offset involves a discount factor representing what the credit is actually worth based on whether I can resell something, whether I&#8217;d actually spend that money either way, and how much work I have to put in to liquidate the credit. It also involves the credit face value, and considerations like a double or <a href=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/30\/its-triple-dip-time\/\" class=\"ek-link\">triple dip<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s walk through a concrete example with the Business Platinum card, assuming we opened it in late November or early December. For a single year&#8217;s annual fee, the main credits are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>-$695 annual fee (no discount) = -$695<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>+$800 Dell credits (25% discount) = +$600<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>+$600 Airline incidental credit (20% discount) = +$480<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Net: -$695+$600+$480 = $385<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ignoring things like Adobe, Indeed, and Clear credits, which are harder to game, the card&#8217;s fees are net positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">News<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Two news items came up over the last week that conspire to change this calculus:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/dealspoints.com\/business-platinum-amex-changes\/\" class=\"ek-link\">Dell, Adobe, and Indeed credits now show an end date<\/a> of 12\/31\/2024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AmEx announced a refresh of 40 products globally next year in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/earnings\/call-transcripts\/2024\/01\/26\/american-express-axp-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcr\/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20we%20expect%20to,40%20products%20globally%20next%20year.\" class=\"ek-link\">Friday&#8217;s earnings call<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Combining the two and reading the between the lines, I think it&#8217;s safe to say that the likelihood of Dell, Adobe, and Indeed going away in 2025 is at least 2\/3. Updating the above math for a triple dip in December 2024 to subtract 2\/3 of the Dell credits in 2025 and beyond (given that it&#8217;s likely going away) gives a net annual fee of -$695 + $200 + $400 * (1\/3) + $480 = +$118. So, the value from those credits with today&#8217;s lens has fallen, though remains positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Predictions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Yogi Berra famously said &#8220;It&#8217;s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.&#8221; He&#8217;s right, and I think my crystal ball is at least as opaque as average so, yeah. Nonetheless, I&#8217;m going to predict with broad strokes based on the previous news items:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Credits that don&#8217;t have an analog on other premium credit cards from Chase, Capital One, Bank of America, Citi, or US Bank are going to get the axe for 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credits that are almost certainly paid for by a retailer that don&#8217;t lead to additional purchases will be refreshed away, like Saks, for 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credits that bring new incremental revenue to a retailer will stick around, like Uber and Equinox<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We&#8217;re going to see more monthly or quarterly credits, and fewer annual or semi-annual credits<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Will the cards still be worth it? It depends on what kind of AmEx user you are: If the annual credits represent a significant source of value for premium cards, you&#8217;re in a tougher spot. If they don&#8217;t because you&#8217;re taking advantage of category bonuses, <a href=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/30\/american-expresss-q4-surprise\/\" class=\"ek-link\">employee cards<\/a>, offers, and other games, then it&#8217;s annoying but not a game changer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good luck!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-editorskit-rounded\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9076\" style=\"width:420px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18-800x600.png 800w, https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-18.png 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\" style=\"font-size:14px\">2025&#8217;s refreshed American Express Green card monthly <s>coupon<\/s> credit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction An important aspect of offsetting an annual fee on premium American Express cards is creative use of credits like: The calculus for me on<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":0,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-credit-cards","category-wisdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9075"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9083,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9075\/revisions\/9083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}