{"id":2002,"date":"2021-07-19T04:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-19T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/?p=2002"},"modified":"2023-04-18T12:25:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T18:25:59","slug":"a-thought-for-your-monday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/19\/a-thought-for-your-monday\/","title":{"rendered":"A Thought for your Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard by now but just in case you haven\u2019t, here\u2019s the background for today\u2019s post: Citi Thank You Points <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/viewfromthewing.com\/wow-citibank-points-now-transferable-to-american-aadvantage\/\">can be transferred to AA<\/a> between now and November 23rd. (Why this date? No idea.) <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dansdeals.com\/points-travel\/milespoints\/incredible-can-transfer-citi-thankyou-points-american-limited-time\/\">People<\/a> <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.doctorofcredit.com\/citi-thankyou-points-can-now-be-transferred-to-american-airlines-for-a-limited-time-11\/\">are<\/a> <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/dannydealguru.com\/transfer-citi-thankyou-points-to-american-airlines-miles\/\">celebrating<\/a> this and frankly with good cause. Until now, Citi Thank You Points have been my least favorite bank currency amongst the major players \u2014 so much so that I\u2019d choose 1.0 Ultimate Rewards or Membership Rewards over 1.2 Citi Thank You Points. In general I think of Thank You Points as worth exactly a penny and move on to bigger and better things (say, 15x \u201cshop small\u201d with an <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/resy.com\/amex-offers?date=2021-07-18&amp;seats=2\">American Express Platinum from Resy<\/a> as a great example).<\/p>\n<p>I hear your rebuttal, and yes, the Turkish Airlines Miles &amp; Smiles program <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/frequentmiler.com\/turkish-miles-smiles-complete-guide\/\">has some sweet-spots <\/a>and Citi Thank You Points are uniquely positioned to take advantage of that; but booking Turkish awards can be a long and frustrating process involving multiple unanswered calls and weird email bookings, and the rest of the Citi Thank You Points transfer partners range somewhere between \u201cChase and American Express can also do that\u201d, and \u201cI\u2019d rather stab myself in the eye with a fork because if I\u2019m going to be in that much pain, I\u2019ll do it to myself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But now with Thank You Points transferring 1:1 to American Airlines\u2019 AAdvantage program, there\u2019s <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com\/i18n\/travel-info\/partner-airlines\/japan-airlines.jsp\">some real value<\/a> to be had. I\u2019m excited, but I\u2019m also very cautious and won\u2019t be transferring all of my Thank You Points to AA miles for one reason: <strong>AA Miles are ready to devalue<\/strong>, and for better or worse, that\u2019s coming sooner rather than later. Consider:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Delta has a dynamic mileage redemption scheme (Asia will cost you 210,000 SkyMiles round trip in business class, if you\u2019re lucky)<\/li>\n<li>United has a dynamic mileage redemption scheme (Asia will cost you 160,000 MilagePlus miles round trip in crappy business class, if you\u2019re lucky)<\/li>\n<li>Southwest has a fixed value redemption (Southwest doesn\u2019t fly to Asia. Can you imagine traveling to Asia on a Southwest 737?)<\/li>\n<li>American Airlines\u2019 fixed award chart is much cheaper than major competitors (Asia will cost you 120,000 AAdvantage miles, with great availability)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For the most part this is illustrative of awards to just about any international destination, we\u2019re stuck in a situation where AAdvantage offers much, much better value than its major competition and on top of that they\u2019ve said they\u2019re moving to a variable redemption scheme. This means that they\u2019re almost certainly going to devalue, and it\u2019s almost certainly going to happen very soon, just as predicted by <a class=\"ek-link\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mean_reversion_(finance)\">reversion to the mean<\/a>. In fact, I\u2019d call this event the catalyst for devaluation and cynically declare it\u2019s a last ditch money grab by AA before the chart gets materially worse (and variable).<\/p>\n<p>My advice to you: Yes, Thank You Points conversion to AAdvantage miles is an exciting development, but don\u2019t go too far with this, transfer the number of points to AA that you need for the next six months or so and plan on an AA devaluation. Don\u2019t be surprised when the rug gets pulled out from you at the end of the year. At that point, I fear we\u2019ll all be thinking of Thank You Points as being worth a cent again.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-editorskit-rounded\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2003\" height=\"315\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 420px) 100vw, 420px\" src=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/rusty-fork.jpeg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/rusty-fork.jpeg 420w, https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/rusty-fork-300x225.jpeg 300w\" width=\"420\"\/><figcaption>My Citi Thank You Points award redemption eye fork.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard by now but just in case you haven\u2019t, here\u2019s the background for today\u2019s post: Citi Thank You Points can be transferred<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":2,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","footnotes":""},"categories":[19,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-miles","category-travel-hacking"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2002"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7247,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions\/7247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesearnandburn.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}